SITREP 23MAR26 | EIEIO, War, Supply Chain, Intel
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https://t.co/whz7wPWbmz for American made badass TACMED gear and training; code "Bear Nation" 10% off.
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Shoutout to @SCALPCOM Yakoke, Homies.
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BEAR INDEPENDENT
BONUS INTEL
In Middletown Iowa we have a large ammunition plant that manufactures items for the military.This is not a common thing but they just sent everyone home. No explanation, just everyone needs to leave.
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Delaware military academy a high school my son goes to just sent out instructions to have all cadets starting Monday, not wear anything that has any insignia on it. As they have a strict uniform standard that is inline with the navy, this they say is out of abundance of caution, and is nationwide not just with our local school.
This tells me that they either have a specific threat or are concerned one will be made against anyone wearing a military uniform, including children/teenagers.
Either way, this is another indicator that things are escalating and wanted to share.
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I've been working for an outpatient imaging center that's part of a large hospital system in the Tampa area for 11 years. A few weeks ago for the first time ever we had active assailant training.
According to the sign on our front door "for your own safety, weapons are not allowed on the premises" , we also have no security guards and only one security camera. The training consisted of telling us to be aware of our surroundings, running and finding a good place to hide and the instructor lightly touched upon finding whatever we could at our disposal like laptops or scissors to fight back in a worst case scenario.
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I wanted to share an alert that NH Homeland security and emergency Management released yesterday alongside the New Hampshire State Police. They're calling for everybody to be vigilant and asking "if you see something to say something".
They are asking to be aware of the following: (copied from the release)
Unusual items or situations such as an unattended bag or a vehicle parked in an odd location.
Eliciting or gathering information, such as a person questioning about building operations or security at a level beyond curiosity.
Surveillance that goes beyond casual or professional interest such as repeat and/or prolonged observation, or someone taking notes and/or measurements.
Who you saw, what you saw, when you saw it, where it occurred and why it is suspicious.
I've never seen a release like this in the state of New Hampshire, it's pretty unusual. Given the current state of affairs at home and abroad it sounds like they are gearing up for some kind of malicious action.
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I am stationed with the army in Bavaria Germany. As of the time of this writing the First Infantry Division has been moved to the rotational barracks in the surrounding smaller camps. This is a normal occurrence as the Hohenfells CTC training area is nearby. However they have vehicles with fresh coats of desert tan paint. This is not the norm as we transitioned to camo after 2022. One of the local garrisons has been put on notice to deploy the name of which I will not mention.
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I work for a composite manufacturing company in the US , recently (REDACTED) who we work with are forming a contract to manufacture 12,000 or more units of munitions. This same company also stated that they are prioritizing propellant they produce for artillery. Just some confirmation on what Bear has been saying about ammo shortages.
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It’s is currently 2130 hours local time, my place of employment is on a station wide stand down, and we have reports of various stations across the country on stand down as well, due to a system wide internet error. It’s unclear at the moment if this is a cyber attack, but given that it’s happening at multiple stations across the country, I wouldn’t be surprised.Bear has been speaking routinely of a ongoing Zero Day Exploit, and while I don’t know for sure, if it is a cyber attack (and management wouldn’t admit if it is) it seems prudent to take action as if it is.On a more spiritual level, I have been plagued with a sense of “The calm before the storm”, right before all hell breaks loose. As a general question to the Bear Nation, has anyone else’s had this same sense?
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Pinellas County, FL- Wednesday 3/18, 12pm-3pmESTOur warehouse bay doors are open, and I noticed what sounded like Bay Flight Med Helo getting closer to us. He was doing circles at a very low altitude. Close enough to toss a football at them.I pulled up ADS-B exchange and clicked on the helo and was looking at their flight pattern. The aircraft is registered to Duke Energy, not Bay Flight.
After 2 hours of watching this, I checked again and he has been circling all over southern Pinellas county. I pulled up a normal map and every time they do a circle, it seems to be at a power substation. Although, I have never seen this before, it maybe normal- however MacDill Airforce Base is currently under lockdown for a second time this week. Probably not even related, but needs to be noted as they have not said why the base is locked down a second time.Also tracking the flight pattern help me more on my area study maps.I keep in mind what you say in your briefs about the power sub stations.
As Bear says- CHARGE YOUR BATTERIES, CHECK YOUR GEAR, PAY ATTENTION.
@mattpeele@NickJFreitas There is a cut in the clip. Right before the hat appears, you can see him holding the hat in his hands and moving like he is about to put it on.
It is funny that it seems like it just appears out of nowhere.
Bear Bref 6MAR26.
BLUF: Iran War Cost $115 Billion; AI Bubble; National Intel. More coffee is indicated.
Use code "Bear Nation" at https://t.co/whz7wPWbmz for 10% off components, kits, and training.
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BEAR INDEPENDENT
BRIEF
Date: 6MAR26
Analyst: Dance Monkey #1
Distribution: unlimited
Attribution: Bear Independent
In a recent letter to Congress, the president acknowledged that it's "not possible at this time to know the full scope and duration of military operations" in Iran. The administration has not even explicitly ruled out boots on the ground, and after attending a classified briefing, Elizabeth Warren declared, "The Trump administration has no plan in Iran." The strikes have not let up between Iran and Israel, and so far, the regional impacts have expanded to Lebanon, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and both Britain and the EU, via an attack on a British RAF base in Cyprus, an EU member nation.
Since this isn’t another quick and contained surgical operation, what are the economic impacts? Overall, the potential cost estimates appear to range from "sobering" to "alarming." So far, we’ve seen oil jump from around $70 to nearly $80 a barrel over the weekend. JPMorgan economist Joseph Lupton wrote this last weekend, "A military war, layered on top of the ongoing US 'war on trade,' could reignite concerns over global stability," also warning that a "nascent recovery" in business hiring and investment is now at risk. Penn Wharton Budget Model director Kent Smetters put the economic hit somewhere between $50 billion and $210 billion, with his current working estimate around $115 billion. The military operation itself could run another $65 billion in budgetary spending. Natixis’ worst-case scenario looked like this: oil above $120, shipping lanes disrupted, insurance costs spiking, global supply chains impaired, US growth possibly turning negative. At the best-case end, the remaining Iranian regime lacks the capability or will to sustain the fight, oil effects fade quickly, and the economic damage stays manageable.
Carlyle’s Vice Chair James Stavridis and chief energy strategist Jeff Currie have said they are focused on what they called a "base case probability of 70 percent or higher for a protracted asymmetric campaign, including cyber activity, terrorism, and proxy forces" with Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, potentially getting pulled in. (Iraq is now experiencing a nationwide blackout and the US recently told its citizens to leave immediately.) They also raised another key question: "Who is protecting Mozambique's LNG?"
Trump announced Tuesday that the US Navy would begin escorting energy tankers through the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as possible," and offered government-backed insurance to tanker operators. "No matter what," he posted on Truth Social, "the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD."
The IMF had described the US economic outlook heading into 2026 as "buoyant" before all this happened. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen mentioned at a shipping conference that the war risks both higher inflation and slower growth, and said it puts the Fed "even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they were before." Translation? More inflation.
The IMF's pre-war forecast for 2026 global GDP growth was a solid 3.3 percent, but that was built partly on the assumption of "continued AI investment boom and expectations of productivity gains." Putting aside the preexisting concerns of an AI bubble, that AI boom was being physically constructed, in no small part, in the Gulf states now absorbing drone strikes. South Korean tech giants Samsung, LG Electronics, and SK hynix are now scrambling to assess their exposure to the massive data center projects they were counting on in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There are more than a hundred billion dollars’ worth of AI-related contracts and initiatives in the region.
Remember that AI data centers are enormous power consumers, and Gulf states were attractive precisely because of their cheap, abundant energy supply. Fluctuating oil and gas prices flow directly into electricity costs, which flow directly into the economics of running hyperscale infrastructure. If the conflict drags on and energy costs stay elevated or unpredictable, tech firms may follow the math and throttle investment plans. The potential AI bubble was already pricing in a lot of geopolitical stability that may have just gotten a lot harder to justify.
Relevant Links
Missile math:
https://t.co/2QVWHP8hf7
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BEAR INDEPENDENT
BONUS INTEL
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I am a retiree living in the area of Sierra Vista, next to Ft Huachuca (Military Intelligence School house), in Southern Arizona. This week alone the fort lost power on Tuesday and Wednesday. (Lasting 30 minutes to several hours) The last “power outage” was several months ago and was instantly reported as a Fox getting caught up in the power lines. This time, crickets.
We also have had An up tick of flying assets along the Southern border by the joint task force ( MonkeyWerx reported as well 2 days ago), yet NO upgrade or update in forts “Force Protection “ posture.
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I recently worked as a senior system administrator for the Department of Justice in my state. For personal safety, I prefer not to disclose which state that is. During my tenure, I observed several developments that raised concern.
First, we began receiving numerous briefings about digital IDs and were strongly encouraged to promote their adoption. Although participation was officially voluntary, the level of pressure suggested an underlying push toward compliance—particularly unusual given that my state traditionally votes conservative.
Second, I can confirm—as a Senior IT Specialist—that there is indeed an ongoing zero-day exploit, and your assessment of it is accurate.
Third, following multiple internal system outages (as well as disruptions involving major internet and phone carriers), I discovered unauthorized forensic software installed across department computers. These installations appeared to have been deployed covertly by federal officers operating within our department. While I suspect the purpose may have been to investigate information leaks, my attempt to report the issue resulted in my abrupt removal from the position.
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I work for a large defense contractor in the West fort Worth area. We have many part shortages, we have many mismanagement issues. And as of late, the past 5 years, we have many underqualified folks getting " jobs " just because they meet certain qualifications. We are approaching our contract for the union guys. Word on the floor it's going to be a 12 to 16 week strike...to cover parts issues and software issues with the airplane. If you remember about a year ago the DOD actually assessed this facility as a strategic liability due to the 100 plus jets in storage. Over 20 years into this program and we are still doing structural modifications and wiring upgrades to meet demands of five to seven years ago. It is to the point to on the floor, it is close enough, is good enough .... Why are you looking at that and get it out , just get it out.
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CyberCommand just issued an alert. ALL service-members should turn off their “location finder” per cellular phones. Several social media sites hacked by nefarious forces.
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From a service member on Diego Garcia, they are moving out personnel. They were told to fuel up the plans, pack their gear and get out. That’s all he had time to tell us.
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I work with a lot of current and former military in law enforcement. Located in Kentucky.This morning an alert was received for them to turn all location services off on all their devices until further notice. Just wanted to share the info. Head on a swivel. Yah bless you brother for all that you do. May the Lord shine his face upon you. Shalom
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Monday 3/2 was waiting in line at the local M&T bank branch and it was taking considerably longer than usual. Turns out the bank was facing some sort of "technical issue" and was not able to make there TCR (teller cash recycler) work after rebooting 3 times. Combined this with there network had been facing outages for most of the morning. I asked the manager if it was along the line of other state actors and he shrugged and said he wasn't sure.
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Greetings again from the corporate plantation (large US Bank). March 3, received a notice from the bank's ACH platform that ACH transaction processing will be delayed due to 'clearing network delays'. These types of notices are extremely rare, so definitely not ruling out the possibility of foul play.
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I work as an assistant manager at a fast food store in Wisconsin. Today we had our alarm system for the building have a total blackout. The alarm can not send any automated emergency phone calls for any reason. When I called our alarm company, they said our entire area was down.***