Olivia
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Mizer
@MizerXBT
PvP enjoyer // NFA // TG:
In the Orderbooks
Joined June 2025
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@XGamer028188065 Go try demo and lmk if it looks like this
Longed +$2M $XRP as a scalp.
Many people asked for an update so here it is:
Almost no change in the uPNL.
TPed the $PONS long for minimal profits as shared during the last week.
Still holding $SOL, $HYPE and $ETH shorts. Many have asked me if I closed the shorts, the answer is no.
$BTC playing around what I consider my invalidation zone, but as I clearly stated I was going to close on a clear +83k break and hold. It hasn't happened yet imo.
$BTC broke it and it even touched 86k, but that got rejected pretty quick.
I consider I haven't seen yet that typical bull market break. When $BTC starts a bull market and starts a real run it usually doesn't take that much time to break important levels like this one. That's why I'm still fading the move. I still haven't seen that clear 83k break.
Break 83k, get rejected at 86k and keep playing around the most important resistance isn't breaking the 83k zone clearly imo. So I'll keep holding until I consider it's proven that the downtrend is over.
Like I said many times before, I'm not asking you to agree with my thesis and I'm not trying to convince anyone that anything I say will happen. I take my trades based on my ideas and I can easily be wrong too, I just like to share what I do.
GL.
Positions update:
Since the quoted post, there hasn’t been much change in my positioning. As I shared I took an initial long on $PONS that I closed in profit + BE, and later took another one, which is the one I’m still holding.
I haven’t been posting much over the past few days because I decided to take a much slower approach, with the idea of avoiding realizing the current losses while also avoiding losing even more money by constantly follwing the market. This slower approach is also backed by the fact that I still maintain my view that we’re in a bear market rally.
Not going to deny the obvious, the positions are in a rough spot. But as I’ve said the thesis remains the same, hold the $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts until the new lows I expect to come soon, or until $BTC breaks and holds above 83k and confirms a breakout of the downtrend. $PONS is just a hedge that I consider a potentially good bet on the RH chain.
I understand why people are bullish given the price action that brought us here, but it’s undeniable that we’re still in a downtrend until $BTC breaks 83k. I’ll stick with my thesis until we see new lows or that invalidation.
TPed $PONS yesterday for small profits.
Might start taking some alts trades soon.
Holding shorts for now, waiting for weekly close.
Positions update:
Since the quoted post, there hasn’t been much change in my positioning. As I shared I took an initial long on $PONS that I closed in profit + BE, and later took another one, which is the one I’m still holding.
I haven’t been posting much over the past few days because I decided to take a much slower approach, with the idea of avoiding realizing the current losses while also avoiding losing even more money by constantly follwing the market. This slower approach is also backed by the fact that I still maintain my view that we’re in a bear market rally.
Not going to deny the obvious, the positions are in a rough spot. But as I’ve said the thesis remains the same, hold the $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts until the new lows I expect to come soon, or until $BTC breaks and holds above 83k and confirms a breakout of the downtrend. $PONS is just a hedge that I consider a potentially good bet on the RH chain.
I understand why people are bullish given the price action that brought us here, but it’s undeniable that we’re still in a downtrend until $BTC breaks 83k. I’ll stick with my thesis until we see new lows or that invalidation.
Positions update:
Since the quoted post, there hasn’t been much change in my positioning. As I shared I took an initial long on $PONS that I closed in profit + BE, and later took another one, which is the one I’m still holding.
I haven’t been posting much over the past few days because I decided to take a much slower approach, with the idea of avoiding realizing the current losses while also avoiding losing even more money by constantly follwing the market. This slower approach is also backed by the fact that I still maintain my view that we’re in a bear market rally.
Not going to deny the obvious, the positions are in a rough spot. But as I’ve said the thesis remains the same, hold the $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts until the new lows I expect to come soon, or until $BTC breaks and holds above 83k and confirms a breakout of the downtrend. $PONS is just a hedge that I consider a potentially good bet on the RH chain.
I understand why people are bullish given the price action that brought us here, but it’s undeniable that we’re still in a downtrend until $BTC breaks 83k. I’ll stick with my thesis until we see new lows or that invalidation.
Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out.
Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.
Cards on the table now, 83k or new lows next $BTC
The key scheduled news events that $BTC was pivoting around have now been revealed. The Clarity Act has been rejected and the Fed has confirmed rate hikes.
Both developments are bearish for risk assets like $BTC, although there has been and still is a big debate over whether these negatives (which were already expected) were priced in or not. The truth is that we still don’t know for sure, and we’ll need to see some days of price action to see what hand the market shows us.
As for my view, I’m still convicted that we’ll see new lows. I don’t think it’s going to be a one day nuke. My main thesis is chop throughout September into the end of the month, followed by the big drop sometime between late September and November. $BTC in the 40-50k range sounds like a more solid bottom to me.
As I said, the scheduled news events have already been revealed, but the war, oil prices and yields are variable factors that are currently working against risk assets. These are variables that can change and “improve”, and if that happened, they could potentially create a better environment for risk assets to move higher. But with everything as it stands right now, I see a very clear downside move for these assets. The fixed + variable factors are already working against them, and any additional moment of weakness or uncertainty in the market will end up getting punished.
$BTC structure is still clearly in a downtrend from the top, which hasn’t been broken yet. And as I’ve said, this move higher that started from 65k seems to be losing momentum and looking worse by the day. That said, a break + hold above 83k would confirm a break of the downtrend and could end up being the real signal of a bull market starting.
For now, patience until we see what the market shows us, but new lows coming imo.
Positioning update:
I'm still short $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE. The only adjustment I've made for now was closing 20% of my $HYPE and $ETH positions to push my liquidation prices further away ($3.8k & $180).
I still believe the bottom is not in and that we still have to see new lows ($55-52k, potentially even $40k). I consider the current move to be nothing more than a bear market rally or bull trap, and I ultimately expect us to see new lows before the bull market begins.
From the current level, I'm watching 3 zones: $82-84k, $70-69k, and $60-55k.
The midpoint of everything is $70k, and I think $BTC will move towards that area relatively soon. Either before moving up to $82k or afterwards, but I believe the $82-84k area could be the generational top of this bear market rally.
The $60-55k area will eventually be revisited imo, but I don't think it will happen directly from the current level. I find it difficult to see this entire pump V-reversing straight down, so I think price will first reach $70k, chop around that area for a while, and eventually bleed down towards those new lows.
I'm in no rush to open longs, and even if some potentially good trades present themselves, I'm not interested in chasing price at current levels. I don't feel any FOMO, in the first place because of my bearish bias and secondly, even if I thought this was the bottom, if the bull market really has started we'll have months if not years of countless opportunities and trades ahead of us.
I still have extremely high conviction in my positions and believe this move is simply a temporary narrative that will unwind soon. As I've mentioned in many posts, my invalidation for my bearish bias would be seeing the market hold this move and confirm that the potential bottom is actually in.
As I always insist in my posts, this is just my opinion. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything or get anyone out of their positions.
Bottom is not in imo, and if I'm wrong, there's good news too because I'll make the loss back 20x over during the bull market.
How is this chart looking now considering the current PA + macro situation https://t.co/1kCBeqjXvU?
Chop is expected but we'll see new lows around October imo.
$BTC
Where's my invalidation?
My invalidation for my bearish thesis would be a break and confirmation above 83k $BTC.
Until then, I simply consider this a lower high. That's an undeniable fact as of today, it doesn't matter whether you're bullish or bearish, it's a lower high until that level is broken. Once 83k is reclaimed, then we can start talking about a break of the downtrend structure.
If price eventually goes to new lows, I don't think it will happen all at once either. Given the current sentiment, I think it's likely that $BTC establishes a new range between 70k and 82k. And if the final destination is lower I think it will take time, because every lower level that gets tested will likely be bid by people who are already convinced that the new bull market has started.
On the other hand, if I'm wrong and the bottom is actually in, I think bulls should want to see continued momentum and volume to break 83k and prove that this isn't just another lower high.
83k is not the final certified guarantee that the bottom is in and the bull market is back, but I do consider it a good level to give up on the shorts and start changing my view, because once that level is broken the possibility of seeing 100k and above becomes much more realistic than it is right now.
So far all we have is a huge move to the upside. There's no denying that the numbers and probability are there for this to potentially be the bottom that many people are already assuming it is, but it still needs confirmation.
If 83k breaks and I see several closes confirming the breakout, I'll change my view that this is simply a lower high fueled by the Trump's narrative.
It's also worth pointing out something I find quite funny, the insane amount of hate that almost any bearish post gets on the TL. It doesn't matter who posts it, what their track record is or what their background is, most bearish posts receive an insane amount of hate.
The quoted post for example is probably the post I've ever had with the highest comment:hate ratio. This isn't an indicator in itself or anything like that, but I do think it shows that a lot of people are heavily positioned in one direction and simply can't afford to be wrong about their choice.
Sitting on hands for now until 83k is broken or until price starts trending down.
If you liked $ZEC at $1,200, you'll love it at $850!
Can you deny any of the stated things?
And can you explain the mechanism for risk-on here?
Cope harder.
The 10Y pays 4.98%. The 30Y pays 5.36%. Risk-free. Wednesday is ~90% priced for a HIKE, in a year that opened expecting the Fed's third cut.
"-50% off the high" isn't a valuation. Price doesn't know where it came from. Drawdown depth has never been an actual floor.
In June 2022 $BTC was -50% from 69K, sitting at 34K. This exact argument was all over CT. It then fell another 55% to 15k.
What is a floor is a buyer. So tell me who that is with the 10Y at 4.98%, the 30Y at a two decade high, Wednesday ~90% priced for a hike, and crude over $100. Cash pays you 5% to wait. BTC pays you nothing and asks you to eat the duration risk.
Why am I (still) bearish?
The current macro environment is completely cooked. Trump/USA can push whatever policies or strategies he wants to move prices in the short term, driven by future promises or narratives, but in my opinion it’s impossible to enter/be on a bull run or sustain any prolonged upside move with the current macro backdrop.
1/ Like I've been saying during the past weeks structure still hasn't changed. This is a lower high on $BTC until the downtrend structure is actually broken.
2/ Oil is at around $100. WTI settled $100.05 Friday, +9.4% on the week. Iran hit 10 ships near Hormuz. Transits down to 7 a day. Houthis reached Perim Island. Saudi shut its East-West pipeline with production at a three-decade low. The IEA now sees normal Gulf flows delayed into 2027.
3/ That oil went straight into the CPI print. Gasoline is +3.9% on the month, over a third of the entire monthly increase. Diesel +52% YoY at a record high.
4/ The Fed is hiking, not cutting. Odds for Wednesday went from ~71% pre-CPI to ~85–90% after. At the start of 2026, this meeting was supposed to deliver the Fed's third cut of the year. Almost nobody is positioned for the opposite.
5/ The long end is already there. 10Y: 4.98%, highest since late 2023, knocking on 5%. 30Y: 5.36%, highest in nearly two decades. 5Y breakeven 2.37% to 2.46% in a week.
What would change my mind?
As I said, a weekly close above 83K $BTC on spot volume, not squeeze volume.
Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out.
Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.
Positions update:
Still holding $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Took a $PONS scalp 2 days ago that I closed in profit, and reopened one more again yesterday looking for a second round.
My bias is still very clear and more confident now than ever, we are about to retrace the full move + new lows.
Will share more details on my next post.
Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out.
Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.
Will be glorious when it’s proven that the bottom wasn’t in.
Unmatched conviction moment.
Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out.
Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.
Bought $PONS again at current levels after yesterday’s TP
Light cook $PONS
I’d say it’s looking pretty damn good.
@MizerXBT Not looking good
Bidding $PONS on this dip
Still holding my underwater $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
Not much change for now, still sticking to not chasing trades unless something obvious comes out.
Still think that macro is cooked and that this is a lower high. Break and hold above 83k would invalidate this and would make me think that the bull is really here.
Still holding my $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
I still have the same view as in the last analysis I shared on my previous post https://t.co/C6eImi0m3U. A break + hold above 83k would invalidate my shorts and turn what is currently just a lower high into a confirmed break of the downtrend from the top.
That break + hold is not a definitive guarantee that the bear market is over and a new bull market is starting, but it's where I decided to place my stops and where I consider my trade invalidated. If it breaks, holds, and then eventually makes new lows (which I consider very unlikely, hence why I place my stops there) so be it.
For now my strategy is simply to absorb the damage and wait to see what the market gives us. I'm doing this because in my particular case chasing price just for LTF moves would only make the situation worse through revenge trading or taking excessive risk. So for now the strategy is simply to wait and see what the market gives us, and respect my HTF idea instead of following the LTF PA.
Like I said, HTF I still maintain my personal view that we'll see new lows. LTF we could continue seeing attempts to break or sweep the 81-83k area.
On LTF I might take a scalp play on something like $ZEC or $PUMP, but I'm waiting for a better setup than what we have right now.
@Panthiczek New lows imo.
40-45k in October.
$BTC structure looking very cooked here.
Still holding my $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
I still have the same view as in the last analysis I shared on my previous post https://t.co/C6eImi0m3U. A break + hold above 83k would invalidate my shorts and turn what is currently just a lower high into a confirmed break of the downtrend from the top.
That break + hold is not a definitive guarantee that the bear market is over and a new bull market is starting, but it's where I decided to place my stops and where I consider my trade invalidated. If it breaks, holds, and then eventually makes new lows (which I consider very unlikely, hence why I place my stops there) so be it.
For now my strategy is simply to absorb the damage and wait to see what the market gives us. I'm doing this because in my particular case chasing price just for LTF moves would only make the situation worse through revenge trading or taking excessive risk. So for now the strategy is simply to wait and see what the market gives us, and respect my HTF idea instead of following the LTF PA.
Like I said, HTF I still maintain my personal view that we'll see new lows. LTF we could continue seeing attempts to break or sweep the 81-83k area.
On LTF I might take a scalp play on something like $ZEC or $PUMP, but I'm waiting for a better setup than what we have right now.
Still holding my $ETH, $SOL and $HYPE shorts.
I still have the same view as in the last analysis I shared on my previous post https://t.co/C6eImi0m3U. A break + hold above 83k would invalidate my shorts and turn what is currently just a lower high into a confirmed break of the downtrend from the top.
That break + hold is not a definitive guarantee that the bear market is over and a new bull market is starting, but it's where I decided to place my stops and where I consider my trade invalidated. If it breaks, holds, and then eventually makes new lows (which I consider very unlikely, hence why I place my stops there) so be it.
For now my strategy is simply to absorb the damage and wait to see what the market gives us. I'm doing this because in my particular case chasing price just for LTF moves would only make the situation worse through revenge trading or taking excessive risk. So for now the strategy is simply to wait and see what the market gives us, and respect my HTF idea instead of following the LTF PA.
Like I said, HTF I still maintain my personal view that we'll see new lows. LTF we could continue seeing attempts to break or sweep the 81-83k area.
On LTF I might take a scalp play on something like $ZEC or $PUMP, but I'm waiting for a better setup than what we have right now.
$ETH $SOL $HYPE update.
Don’t bet what you can’t afford losing.
Not my case so all good so far. Am I closing here? No.
Nothing about my thesis changed, so there’s no reason for me to close yet. This run isn’t real / sustainable imo.
- We pump in a very illiquid market situation.
- 3B shorts liquidated (giga short squeeze).
- Trump extraction mode ON.
- Crypto has been trying to follow stocks with almost no interest (retail isn’t here, it’s just perps games).
- Yields high.
- Marco in a bad situation.
- Oil up, war ON.
What would be the reason for me to close here? Because price went higher without anything backing it as a real run?
Holding for now, happy to accept the loss if wrong. Don’t bet what you can’t afford losing.
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