Martin Leinweber

Digital Asset Research & Strategy at MarketVector. Author: "Mastering Crypto Assets" Tweets/views are my own and not necessarily MV.

[MarketVector Indexes @MarketVector]

#NewYork is on fire with #knicks and team #MarketVector at @AretskysPatroon talking #Crypto and #Indexing with @RalineSexton @mleinweber2

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Regards from $MSTR

BTC Dominance is falling like a stone. Interestingly alts with product market fit can decouple here.

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗽 𝗢𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝗸

A falling BTC dominance during a market-wide correction is the tell most people talk themselves out of. The usual dismissal is that it is just stablecoins inflating the denominator. Strip the cash out and the picture is less reassuring than that excuse implies.

The standard CRYPTOCAP BTC.D series divides Bitcoin by total market cap, stablecoins included. A falling print can mean three things: alts outperform, Bitcoin gets sold hardest as the anchor, or capital rotates into cash and the stablecoin slice expands. The comforting move is to wave it away as the third. The data does not let us off that easily.

We pulled the daily series apart. Yes, stablecoin dominance is climbing, so some of the headline drop is the denominator filling with cash. But Bitcoin's share of the non-stable market, dominance with stables stripped out entirely, is also falling. Even on the cleanest measure, with the cash effect removed, Bitcoin is ceding ground to the alt complex. Today it dropped faster than alts on both reads. That is not the rotation you want to see.

Now layer in the structure. Dominance has been rolling over since late May and has now lost the 60.4% shelf that held as the pivot all cycle, sliding to 58.56% with the last two sessions doing most of the damage and total cap rolling over alongside it. The level that acted as support all year has given way.

And then there is the bid that is changing character. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 last week. The size is immaterial, 32 coins against an 843,000 BTC position, and the firm still frames itself as a net aggregator. But the size is not the point. For five years the most important marginal buyer in this market operated on a never sell doctrine, and that relentless, price-insensitive demand is a large part of why Bitcoin traded higher than it otherwise would have through every drawdown. That doctrine has now moved to sell selectively to maximize Bitcoin per share. The floor under the marginal bid was psychological as much as mechanical, and the psychology just changed.

This is why it matters going forward rather than today. A treasury that sells to fund dividends and defend its capital structure is a different animal from one that only ever absorbs supply. What was a one-way support is now a two-way variable. The dollar amount is trivial. The removal of the never sell anchor is not.

So the charitable read is rotation into cash. The honest read is that Bitcoin is the marginal underperformer even after you control for stables, the shelf that mattered all cycle has broken after weeks of erosion, and the buyer of last resort has reserved the right to be a seller. The burden of proof now sits with the bulls to reclaim 60% and hold above it.

@MarketVector

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

A healthy pullback to retest key support/previous resistance is exactly what #Bitcoin needs right now.

Let’s see if it holds. Interest rates and the USD dynamics will ultimately determine the next macro path.

[MarketVector Indexes @MarketVector]

#Markets at all-time highs. Breadth is real — small caps, value, EM, all joining.

But semis are 55% above the 200-day, yields are rising globally, and Japan's debt situation is becoming a live problem.

#Crypto: CLARITY Act through Senate Banking. Mid/small caps outperforming for the first time since March.

@mleinweber2's Chart walkthrough 👇

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Retest of the support line and up she goes! #Coin50

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Median DEXs are DOWN -86% (Median CAGR: -44%) over the last cycle, making them the worst-performing industry group we tracked.

16 of 18 trade >80% below their ATH. Only HYPE is within 30%.

The brutal takeaway? Ecosystem matters less than the model. Ethereum and Solana DEXs are equally crushed—what separates winners from losers is the value capture mechanism, not the host chain.

The "tokens without value capture" pattern is clear. Legacy DEXs (UNI, CRV, CAKE, SUSHI) all run massively-used protocols, but their tokens were mostly governance shells without fee accrual.

Protocols grew. Tokens didn't.

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

A close around USD 214 here would be rally nice for $COIN

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

The shift from "top-heavy" to "broad-based" is officially underway. Our latest Crypto Breadth Report is live, and the data suggests we’re entering a new structural phase. 🧵

Internal Strength: For the first time this cycle, small and mid-caps are outperforming large caps. This isn’t noise; our Heat Index has crossed 50% with upside momentum, and 88% of the top-100 tokens are now in a confirmed dollar uptrend. 📈

Token Narrative Upgrades: * $ZEC: Shifting from "legacy privacy" to a mobile-first privacy layer with sub-second transactions.

$INJ: Native USDC deployment via Circle is cementing its role as a primary settlement hub.

$VVV: Venice’s selection as the AI backend for Strike Robots’ humanoid fleet has transformed the narrative into mission-critical robotics infrastructure.

Breadth is broadening, deliberately and measurably. Get the full quantitative breakdown here:

https://t.co/peFElSGo8z

@SASchoenfeld @matthew_sigel

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

This $SPX rally looks impressive on the surface, but underneath, we are missing a crucial ingredient: breadth expansion. 🚨

Our MarketVector US Equity Heat Index is definitely not confirming this move. As an aggregate measure of trend, A/D line steepness, new highs, and credit spread development, this indicator has to move higher to signal a truly healthy, sustainable uptrend.

Instead, we are seeing a clear divergence. At this stage, a quick pullback in stocks would actually be a healthy reset. 📊📉

@SASchoenfeld

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

SOLUSD, maybe we get a breakout today. Our Trend Model is already long.

#solana #crypto

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Nice SUI breakout supported by our trend model.

#SUI #altcoins #CryptoPrediction

[MarketVector Indexes @MarketVector]

ATHs in US equities—but still seems like a “hated rally.”

Semis look stretched → pullbacks likely.
Crypto breadth improving → still BTC-led.
Are altcoins finally joining?

Watch @mleinweber2's full breakdown 👇
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks #Investing #Macro #MarketVector

[Steven Schoenfeld @SASchoenfeld]

@coinbase #COIN50 breaking out to the upside, in a clean technical pattern

H/T @mleinweber2 @MarketVector

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Just a beautiful breakout.

Clean base. Clear reclaim. Momentum expanding.

$ONDO #ONDO #Crypto

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Finally some short term breadth in crypto. Tokens above their 90d MA now at 69%.

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

COIN50 pushing higher and now comfortably above support.

Clean reclaim → turning prior resistance into support.
A retest wouldn’t be a surprise, but structurally this looks constructive.
Higher low + base building = momentum rebuilding.

Eyes on continuation if support holds.

@SASchoenfeld

[Martin Leinweber @mleinweber2]

Bitcoin looks bullish, but we’re now testing important resistance at the neckline and the 200D MA cloud. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation here.

That said, a clean breakout through these levels would be very bullish.

@SASchoenfeld #bitcoin

[Blockchain Week Bulgaria @BWBulgaria]

What does it actually take to bring institutional discipline to digital assets?

@mleinweber2 spent nearly two decades managing capital for some of the most conservative institutional investors in Europe. At Quoniam Asset Management, he ran active strategies for insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds. At MEAG, the asset manager of Munich Re and ERGO, he contributed to the firm's international expansion into China. He now leads digital asset research and strategy at @MarketVector, the firm behind $158.72 billion in indexed assets, the first to launch a definitive digital asset suite, and named Index Provider of the Year in 2024.

He is also co-author of the first institutional handbook on integrating digital assets into traditional portfolios, published by Wiley in 2021.

Martin Leinweber is joining us at F3: Future Finance Forum on September 25 in Sofia!