I am proud to be born a Muslim.
I am proud to be born in Somalia.
I am proud to have become an American.
None of you can change that no matter how much you rage tweet.
Drink some water and touch grass.
Here is my take on Al-Shabaab attacks
This is based on conversations with multiple security and local officials; and observers:
For weeks, the Somali military supported by local fighters have been holding off two Al-Shabab offensives - launched from southwest and north - from linking up in Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions.
The militants launched the offensives in an attempt to open a supply route either in Middle Shabelle or the neighbouring Hiran region. The attack in Hiran took place in Beera Yabaal twice in January and in February where local fighters with government forces fended off the militants with high casualties.
The militants failed to open that route. More than a hundred people died in the two clashes, most of them militants.
After the failure in Hiran region, the militants crossing from a makeshift bridge built near the village of Oobaale, turned east, passed north of Mahaday district and sent lots of fighters into Middle Shabelle region. Another al-Shabab colum passed through Yaaqle as Al-Shabaab entertained the AU and Somali forces in Balโad town with an attack, thought to have been a decoy on Feb 26.
The second Al-Shabaab offensive from central Somalia was by fighters who have been besieged in Mudug and Galguduud regions for nearly three years. These militants reached the outskirts of the main town of Adan Yabaal which is now besieged.
Militants have forced government forces to pull back from several villages including Al-Kawthar, Daru Nicma, Ceel Cali Axmed, Boos Hareeri, Ceel Baraf, Biyo Cadde and Mirtaqwo.ย The militants fired mortars on Adan Yabaal but government troops are holding on.
On March 18, Al-Shabaab detonated a huge bomb on the presidentโs convoy in an attempt on his life. The following day, Al-Shabaab offensives from southwest and north (from central regions) managed to link up for the first time in the vicinity of Guulane village. Al-Shabaab is now in the process of moving fighters into Galmudud to relieve those besieged for 21/2 years who will head south and southwest. The Al-Shabaab attack on Masaajid Cali Gaduud on March 26 poses another risk for the government forces. It could put pressure on government soldiers in Masagaway and Ceel Dheer who will now have to fight to secure the coastal supply route from Mogadishu-Cadale-Nur Dugle to Galmudug.
With large mobilisations taking place in Middle Shabelle and Hiran region spearheaded by @HassanSMohamud, the government wants to turn the tide. There have been increased airstrikes against al-Shabaab. Ethiopian fighter jets, drones by Turkey, and US and helicopters have been active.
To occupy the government from committing more troops into Middle Shabelle, Al-Shabaab opened another front in Lower Shabelle, launching a major attack on Awdhegle town on March 15. This is widely believed to have been an offset attack but it gave Al-Shabaab another strategic advantage - it now controls one of the bridges that are vital to keeping Mogadishu safe from VBIEDs, which is a big security concern.
Al-Shabaab fighters were sighted in the Mogadishu suburb of Elasha Biyaha on the day of the attack in Awdhegle, primarily to ambush reinforcements. More sightings followed the next days, which were interpreted by some commentators as โAl-Shabaab advancing towards Mogadishu.โ But itโs important to highlight that Al-Shabaab sightings, ambushes, IEDs and propping attacks in Elasha Biyaha area have been continuing for many years. The militants have been intruding these area from Basra (north of Mogadishu) and Gendershe area (southwest of Mogadishu) for years. To portray this as a fresh โadvanceโ towards Mogadishu is premature. Will Al-Shabaab have more chances of smuggling VBIEDs into Mogadishu? Highly likely. Will Al-Shabaab contemplate bringing fighters into Mogadishu for a conventional war? Highly unlikely.
It appears that the Somali intelligence agency, known as NISA, failed to adequately inform President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud about Addis Ababa's involvement in undermining Somali ongoing efforts on multiple fronts during his meeting in Ankara with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. NISA did not alert the President to potential developments at the Raaskamboni front, nor did it provide insights into the meeting between the Jubaland Vice President and the Ethiopian military chief in Addis Ababa.
Furthermore, Prime Minister Hamzโs decision to order the Somali National Army to surrender to Kenyan forces, rather than Jubaland Darwish because he doesnโt understand its far-reaching consequences. This lack of critical intelligence has left the President at a strategic disadvantage, highlighting a significant oversight by the agency expected to safeguard national security interests. @TheVillaSomalia@HassanSMohamud
MADAXWEYNE XASAN SHEEKH OO KA TACSIYEEYEY GEERIDA GUDDOOMIYE MAXAMED SH CUSMAAN JAWAARI
Mogadishu, June 28, 2024; Madaxweynaha Jamhuuriyadda Federaalka Soomaaliya Mudane Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud ayaa ka tacsiyeeyey geerida ku timid Guddoomiyihii hore ee Baarlamaanka Federaalka Soomaaliya, Mudane Maxamed Sheekh Cusmaan Jawaari, oo ku geeriyooday maanta magaalada Muqdisho.
Madaxweynaha ayaa xusay doorka taariikhiga ah ee Marxuumku uu ka soo qaatay horumarinta iyo dhismaha hayโadaha dowladeed ee Soomaaliya. Isagoo ka mid ahaa haldoorka ummadda Soomaaliyeed ee naf iyo maalba u huray dib-u-dhiska qarankeena.
"Innaa Lillaahi Wa Innaa Ileyhi Raajicuun. Waxaan tacsi tiiraanyo leh u dirayaa qoyska, ehel iyo qaranka Soomaaliyeed ee uu ka geeriyooday Guddoomiyihii hore ee Baarlamaanka, Mudane Maxamed Sheekh Cusmaan Jawaari oo muddo dheer u soo shaqeynayey qarankeenna, dhaxal wanaagsanna uga tagay, isagoo door muuqda ka soo qaatay dib u soo celinta dowladnimada Soomaaliya."
Madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh ayaa marxuumka Alle uga baryay in uu janadii Firdowsa ka waraabiyo, samir iyo iimaanna uu ina ka siiyo dhammaanteen.
DHAMMAAD
FGS is not in talks with al-Shabab (Al-Khawarij). The President has put forward clear conditions on this eventuality:
They must sever any link with global terror groups and accept Somaliaโs territorial integrity.
They must be willing to pursue their political agenda peacefully.
#Somalia has been elected to the United Nations Security Council for the 2025-2026 term. This significant achievement highlights the countryโs unique diplomatic efforts and its unwavering commitment to global peace.
#Somali#UN#UNSC#NewYork