Moist Mango

Stocks options crypto futures. Day + Swing. Full time trader since 2014. Blew up end of 2016. Sharing some value if I can along the way

[PhenixInvesting @PhenixInvesting]

South Korea Futures- Kospi 200

Insane system failure once again - Broken since Monday 5 AM
Same situation as last time, Called 4 times the trading desk, they can't close neither help me with my position.
I've been stuck for 28 hours+ and counting.
I'm currently losing 500k and have 0 option to get out.

Sometimes the biggest risk comes from the system itself.
Unacceptable is an understatement. Massive failure from @IBKR and not providing any solution in a reasonable delay.
Community deserve excuse, answers on how you fix this to make sure it never happens again, Monetary Compensation for your clients that have Trust you with their Money and Software.

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@skyquake_1 "prob on leverage" - Sir they are Korean

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@moon_kay786 @thelaptoplegend @peterkto Yes definitely 😅

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@thelaptoplegend @peterkto @moon_kay786 Couldn't be us could it Sir. Let us into that VIP discord Pete

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@MoistMango12 @peterkto @moon_kay786 😅

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@peterkto @moon_kay786 Said people in that discord had to actually listen though. Can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink 😅

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@moon_kay786 I posted this free in a discord that I was invited into simply bc they love my writing.

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

I didnt start trading options until 2022 and its actually more common for me to short options than long them. But If you are holding for full outlier move you typically get better returns (due to change in delta) than shares. So it depends on all the variables, hold to zero, stop etc etc

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

Absolutely murdered the memory short today. By murdered I mean took my short off for a loss, started sulking as it reconfirmed and went back to bed

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

Nice try, but no I'm not particularly worried about the buyout outlier. That would be bad, but low probability enough and not catastrophic that if you let it influence your day to day decisions you would be bleeding too much edge.
Mostly it comes down to a couple of things:
(1) I needed protection from Koreas bid overnight (although I thought Korea would breakdown, a reclaim and V rally not out of question).
(2) I was betting on an outlier downside day, and so the structure of an option is preferable if my view of the price distribution is different to the markets view

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@samalekn There were a multitude of reasons. A little of looking at the options prices (I thought they were too expensive to rebuy lol). But I think it can be summed up in a simple meme - because you are absolutely right

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@mvnnnyyy @P3Trader I'm long @mvnnnyyy leaps, willing to hold through a few pullbacks and consolidations to capture the long term growth

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

Yes big differences, similar principles as is the case with most trading strategies. A helpful thing to do would be to look at all mid cap and large cap dominant trends and when to actually short them - and craft an understanding of what a complex top looks like, and how long a thematic trend can last if it doesn't clearly accelerate into a clean parabolic. You really don't want to be the guy shorting a large cap trend every day for a few months when you could have just longed

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@stockceomedia What do you think the advantages were? Lets see how you go

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@vawolf09 It looks like a cow getting sucked into a UFO

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@Egalmar1 My wife agrees (we have infant right now) 😂

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

😂😂😂

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@TheShortBear Imo it's beyond salvageable now (although not necessarily expecting big dramatic liquidation either, we will see). But even if it were salvageable I have zero faith in Saylor to salvage it

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@TheShortBear Imo it's beyond salvageable now (although not necessarily expecting big dramatic liquidation either, we will see). But even if it were salvageable I have zero faith in Saylor to salvage it

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@ross_w__ Was there ever any doubt!? 😂

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@thelaptoplegend Give us the chart for the edge leak. I want to learn how to cover the exact highs

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@amberXBT

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

I’ve been watching crypto sentiment from quality traders for months. I’m bearish with high conviction, so here’s my unfiltered view.

It’s not super actionable. Bear markets are usually slow death by boredom, not clean trends - but maybe a different angle helps. Plus what would actually flip me bullish again.

Sentiment: Still way too much interest to call this asset class neglected. At the 2019 lows crypto was a dead asset. Now, financially illiterate MSTR tweets still go viral and X is full of people treating “stacking sats” like a sophisticated investment thesis. That’s not bottoming behaviour.

Price action: Clearly in a medium-term downtrend, the kind that requires a substantial base to sustain another bull market. In this type of price action/trend, it isn't uncommon to actually have sizeable bear market rallies which can make things difficult for both sides. That being said, I have been very unimpressed with the bear market rallies so far.

Relative weakness: Even as we have had a roaring bull market, crypto has had clear relative weakness. It has always been tied to risk sentiment, even in the early days. So this relative weakness now is another red flag.

Fundamentals 1: I used my first DEX in 2017, invested in a real-estate token ICO that year, and first heard the “agentic micro-transactions” thesis in 2019. A lot of that is finally happening… but prices are multiples higher and the gains are spread across way more coins. Not the clean rotation people want.

Fundamentals 2: Institutional involvement will probably look nothing like the 2021 playbook. Speed vs decentralization trade-off is real. Just as likely it just becomes “the spreadsheet” layer - different coins (if any) and far less retail-friendly.

Fundamentals 3: Crypto has always expanded horizontally (more coins, higher total MC, leaders don’t just take it all). L2 dynamics are still unpredictable here. Even if today’s leaders survive, the pie just keeps getting sliced thinner.

Govt involvement: Strategic Bitcoin reserve? Done. That was the gold-standard bullish catalyst. Now what? We’re here and the needle hasn’t moved.

Valuation: WLFI and other 2024 zero-coins still trading well above raise price. Froth from the last rally hasn’t been cleared. Compare to 2018/19 - those coins actually went to zero. We’re nowhere near that level of apathy yet.

MSTR looming overhead: Could craft an entire separate essay here, but subjectively I'd put the chance of an ugly blowup in the coming years somewhere in the 15-50% chance of happening. Non-zero chance it ends with regulatory heat as well. Too many red flags...

What would get me bullish again: Quite simply, at least 6 months of sideways, people clearly forgetting about the asset class. Scam coins not necessarily going to zero but getting a low volume, zero interest sideways death pattern.

[Moist Mango @MoistMango12]

@traderkylec "Passive" indexes determined by active policy