Everyone has decided to use a BTC correction to spin their mental wheels very hard and shake themselves out of their positions.
MSTR = Bitcoin with leverage and no margin call.
STRC = instrument where divs WILL get paid.
Bitcoin = Bitcoin.
All going up over long period of time.
Pretty much that's it and I can log off for years.
Some constructive suggestions for @saylor, @phongle and @Strategy.
1. Minimise the memes.
They may generate attention but right now they are damaging the company’s reputation and credibility more than building it.
The strategy is strong enough to stand on its own. It doesn't need unnecessary hype to sell it.
2. Minimise the use of language like "risk-free rate" around $STRC.
Let the market come to that conclusion as and when it feels necessary.
3. Minimise marketing $STRC as effectively a money-market equivalent until it actually behaves like one.
Alternatively, create an entirely new category.
You are the Category King of Digital Credit. You make the rules.
4. Minimise the active use of volatility-based metrics and the Sharpe ratio as proof of $STRC’s success.
They are misleading and create unnecessary attack surfaces.
The product is not even a year old. Let the track record mature before declaring victory.
5. Maximise conservatism.
The best way to protect the strategy to build credibility, reduce unnecessary attack surfaces and let the strategy itself do the talking.
Under-promise. Over-deliver.
6. Stay humble. Stack sats.
Strategy was at its best when it was quietly going about its business and executing without drawing unwanted attention.
This is the way.
Two things:
1. $STRC at ~$87 in no way impacts the short-term solvency of Strategy. It simply means that $STRC can't temporarily be used to raise capital to buy Bitcoin.
2. $STRC will eventually move back to par and all of the drama on X will be forgotten again.
3. The thesis hasn't changed.
Keep calm and carry on.
As per usual, the noise about Strategy is deafening right now.
Many people who have zero idea what they are talking about are calling for an imminent death spiral, likely influenced by low IQ doomer slop articles that were written for clickbait engagement purposes.
Let's be objective about how things stand right now by looking at the entirety of the capital structure and compare it to the BTC bottom in 2022.
2022:
Bitcoin price: $15,760
MSTR BTC reserve: 132,500 BTC
Net senior claims on balance sheet: $2.356 billion
Senior claims in BTC: 149,503 BTC
Basic shares: 115.48m
Common equity Bitcoin exposure: -14,700 sats/share
Now:
Bitcoin price: $63,511
MSTR BTC reserve: 846,842 BTC
Net senior claims: $21.1 billion
Senior claims in BTC: 332,226 BTC
Basic shares: 356.32m
CEBE: 144,400 sats/share
At the 2022 bottom, BTC-only CEBE was NEGATIVE.
Yes, the residual for MSTR holders was NEGATIVE, and the stock never went to $0. It traded between $10-$20 near the bottom as the market was pricing in future potential.
The fiat senior claims were larger than the Bitcoin reserve when measured in BTC.
Today, even with the giant preferred stack, CEBE is roughly +144k sats per basic share.
Gross BPS went from about 114.7k sats to 237.7k sats, while senior-claim drag went from 129.5k sats/share to 93.2k sats/share.
So Strategy went from “common equity is underwater on a pure BTC residual basis” to “common still has a six-figure sats residual after debt and preferred.”
It was WAY WORSE four years ago.
If Strategy survived 2022, they're going to survive 2026.
@BenjaminStongMD Also, STRC was originally priced at $90, not $100, even though the stated amount is $100. The prospectus shows a public offering price of $90 per share, while regular dividends accrue on the $100 stated amount.
$STRC is currently $92.72.
This is severely mispriced, but when the market lacks of understanding, it brings opportunity.
This an effective dividend yield of 12.4% plus 7.85% capital gain when it returns to par.
The opportunity is 20.25% annual return.
There's a very good chance that Strategy increases the dividend rate to help to bring it back to par. I think the market has spoken and they are demanding a higher rate.
If they do, that effective annual return is even higher.
The alternative is to buy $SATA at par and get 13%.
I like the idea of daily dividends, but not 7% better.
$STRC is the better buy at this point, in my opinion.
The market is completely irrational.
The Saylor haters who call him a “cult leader” and “salesman” are the same midwits who bought every shitcoin that promised to “solve Bitcoin’s problems,” got rugged, and are now mad that one man just kept stacking the actual asset instead of renting it out for 3% yield like the institutions they worship.
He didn’t sell you anything.
He showed you the exit from the dollar and you called it a personality cult because your ego couldn’t handle being wrong for a decade.
Pathetic!
Sean Strickland is a great example of if you criticize Israel and are against pedophilia, there is a 100% chance you will be arrested before a single person on the Epstein list.
Accurate stereotype:
→"Saylor is a scammer"
→"MSTR is going to zero"
→"Saylor will dilute shareholders forever with ATM offerings"
→"Strategy is a cult stock for bagholders"
→"MSTR holders coping hard with Saylor's endless ATM evangelism"
Reading what a traitor I am in my comments.
So, JUST TO BE FAIR..... let me get this straight.....
We taxpayers just blew $75 billion to attack Iran, UNPROVOKED, then dropped another $300 billion to REBUILD it, even though it didn't NEED rebuilding before we ATTACKED it, (unprovoked) all so we could "reopen" a Strait of Hormuz that was already OPEN before we ATTACKED Iran (unprovoked), wind up with $4 gas for NO REASON and I'M the bitch for pointing it OUT?
That's fair.
Sounds legit. 👌