@Micro2Macr0@mahsa10_a@emilykschrader Jesse, I’m paying $5/mo subscription and have for over a year. Does that not allow me to see the portfolio allocation? Please advise and thanks
$SOFI has a communication problem about their tech platform. If the stock is going to rerate, we need more clarity as investors and analysts on this business segment.
I had a follower send me the full analysis from BMO. Honestly, it's a great read and I understand where they are coming from with their hold rating.
However, this, and most professional analysis I've read spends very little time on the Tech Platform. It's a 28 page document, and about one half of a page in total talks about the TP, and 2/3 of that is just defining what it is. Their entire analysis on the segment going forward is two sentences.
I do not blame those analysts because the information SoFi releases about the TP is extremely minimal. Because that part of the business is so opaque, it's extremely difficult to model and investors and analysts have to rely heavily on management commentary to make projections rather than on data.
For example, I think based on management commentary that we will see around 40% growth in TP revenue next year. If that's true, that alone would have a huge impact on the revenue and EPS for next year.
BMO, by contrast, expects 10% organic account growth for the next 2 years, and that TP revenue scales linearly with account growth. BMO's revenue forecasts for total noninterest income for SoFi as a whole is down 5% for 2024 relative to 2023, and a lot of that is because the very conservative TP growth they build in.
KBW's forecasts only show 4% revenue growth in the tech platform for 2024 and then 9% growth in 2025. That contributes heavily to the fact that their forecasts for total noninterest income drop 30% in 2024 compared to 2023, and then only increase 10% from that very low level in 2025.
I really think that if @anthonynoto@CLapointe12 and @SoFiIR want analysts to take the Tech Platform seriously and build it into their models, that the company needs to be more transparent and give significantly more detail on the tech platform. If they want to get credit in their valuation as a technology company, the technology portion of the business cannot be a black box.