Nothin but a Geez thang.
Few do more for the space than @RidazLp2, and as long-term supporters, weโre welcoming our Associates to the fold with $SERUM.
@GeezOnApe holders will be eligible to claim $SERUM with their Serum Passports.
We ran an AI forecasting competition on live Polymarket questions ๐ฎ
Competitors: o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Grok-4, Claude Opus, Qwen3-32B (our base), and Foresight-32B from @lightningrodai.
๐ฅ Result: Our Foresight-32B wins on every metricโdespite being 10โ100ร smaller.
Really interesting and timely! LLMs need to be uncertainty-aware and make calibrated predictions. Some takeaways -
1. This is not a typical benchmark - the future is uncertain and getting 100% is impossible. It is difficult to tell what the upper-bound is! Maybe models are already close?!
2. There is lot of diversity in how different models make decisions. Curious to see how aggregating the predictions of different models performs -- multi-agent systems might come out on top.
3. There is some cool work training reasoning models for exactly this task: https://t.co/zvNrDpAt2e . Would be great to see this added!
4. Are a model's predictions consistent? If I re-sample the model, do I get vastly different predictions (this will not be good!).
Apple is catching a lot of flak for its AI efforts.
But the fixation on @Apple's seeming inability to innovate in AI misses the bigger picture.
Apple is likely to be the ultimate beneficiary of AIโand they can afford to take their time.
๐จ New preprint from @lightningrodai, in collaboration with @SchoeneggerPhil & @lukebeehewitt ๐จ
We trained a compact reasoning model that's state-of-the-art at predicting the future. We massively outperform frontier models at prediction market betting, despite being a fraction of the size (only 14b).
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Trust is an increasingly scarce asset
As faith in institutions erodes & AI floods our feeds, users will demand verifiability from their content - built on cryptographic proof rather than institutional authority.
My latest, in @Cointelegraph ๐
https://t.co/SddP9whaF0