Jaleel Mehdi

Assistant Professor, Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace & Conflict Resolution| Fulbright Scholar | NIF Fellow

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@Saleelc Jenab! Already shared a copy with you.

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

Very pleased to share that my latest paper, “Science, Civilisation and the State: The Developmental Fetish in the Making of Indian Nuclear Policy,” has been published in Third World Quarterly.

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

The first of two papers emerging from this research, it examines how ideas of science, civilisation, development and state power shaped India’s nuclear policy and its place in international politics.

Read on: https://t.co/q5DfOwhozm

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

The is the culmination of over two years of research including eight months of archival work at the Prime Ministers’ Museum and Library during 2023–24.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

I don't think people realize just how extraordinary what we're witnessing with Iran is.

I was arguing with a dear journalist friend of mine yesterday who was telling me that Iran was winning, yes, but only on the strategic level, not tactically.

The type of thing a skinny kid getting stuffed in lockers in highschool tells himself to make himself feel better: "These people will BEG to work for me in ten years. Everyone knows jocks peak in highschool. They'll literally beg." 😏

I think that's precisely wrong, and that's what makes the Iran war different. As of now, Iran is in fact holding its own tactically too.

Think about other U.S. wars of aggression these past few decades. Take Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Serbia, etc. (the list is unfortunately very long). The pattern was roughly always the same with an immense power differential between aggressor and victim. These wars were, by and large, imperial: the empire attempting to crush a much weaker people whose only realistic recourse was guerrilla resistance. And that is when they actually had the will to resist: some - like Libya - barely even bothered, just resigning themselves to their fate (despite being, at the time, the richest country in Africa).

As spectators of these wars, if you had any moral sense, the dominant emotion was a kind of helpless disgust: you were watching a giant stomp through someone else's house.

Sure, the U.S. actually lost many - if not most - of these wars, famously replacing the Taliban with the Taliban or being expelled with their tail between their legs from Vietnam, but the power differential was no less real for it.

It's just that power doesn't always guarantee victory: sometimes the giant can't kill everyone, and eventually tires of trying. But the “victories” won this way were always pyrrhic at best: the people endured, yes, but what they were left with was a country in ashes that takes decades to rebuild. Meanwhile, in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego.

Iran is - remarkably - proving to be an entirely different beast: when others were merely surviving a giant, Iran appears to be able to compete with one.

What just happened over the past 48 hours is the best illustration of this. You had the President of the United States issue a formal ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or we "obliterate" your power grid.

Iran's response was essentially: we dare you, if you do this we'll make all your Gulf allies uninhabitable within a week.

And, as we saw, Trump backed down: pretexting non-existent "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Iran, he said his ultimatum no-longer applied (or, rather, became 5 days). Adding he now envisaged the Strait of Hormuz being “jointly controlled by me and the Ayatollah.” To the amusement of Iran’s diplomacy (https://t.co/o4JnJJoAGS).

That, folks, is a textbook tactical victory. It is, remarkably, Iran demonstrating in this instance that it had escalation dominance over the United States of America. That is, the ability to credibly threaten consequences so severe that the US - for perhaps the first time since the Cold War - found it preferable to stand down.

That's no skinny kid being locked in a locker dreaming of revenge fantasies. That's the kid grabbing the bully's wrist mid-shove and watching his face change.

And it's not the only tactical victory in this war so far. Take the episode over the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars gas facility. Iran had warned that if that happened U.S. allies in the region - including Israel - would face a symmetrical response.

And they delivered: famously devastating Qatar's Ras Laffan facility - which produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply - and leading, according to Qatar themselves, to a $20 billion loss of annual revenue for the next 5 years (https://t.co/Myd3QZDbYf).

Not only that but they also managed to hit Israel's Haifa refinery (https://t.co/XvFqewBZPZ), one of the country's most strategic and protected sites.

The result was Trump distancing himself from the South Pars attack, saying that Israel had "violently lashed out" unilaterally and that "NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field." Israel then said it wouldn't strike Iran energy sites anymore (https://t.co/tk0rA5NaWS).

From where I stand, that's another tactical victory. It is, at least, Iran demonstrating that is can fight back **symmetrically** against the U.S. and its allies. Not through asymmetric resistance with IEDs hidden in the roadside or traps hidden in the jungle, but eye for eye, and against some of the most heavily protected sites on the U.S.'s side.

That's qualitatively different from any other adversaries the U.S. has directly fought in recent wars.

There's plenty more, such as the pretty relevant fact that Iran has gained control of the single most strategic energy chokepoint on earth and the U.S. is finding it impossible to break that control.

To the point where Trump has been reduced to publicly begging China - of all countries - for help, which given Trump's ego mustn't have been easy to do. Only to be told no. By China. And by everyone else he asked.

This is the topic of my latest article: how this is, in fact, the first genuine "multipolar war."

First, in the narrow sense: because Iran is revealing itself to be a genuine pole of power - not a superpower, but an actor that cannot be submitted, which is all multipolarity is.

And second, because the war itself is accelerating multipolarity everywhere else: the U.S. has never been more isolated, never looked weaker and its security guarantees have never been more hollow.

In my article I lay out the full scoreboard - military, economic, political - and explain why this war has already changed the world, regardless of how it ends.

Enjoy the read here: https://t.co/FoB8dIKwTb

[Ashoka Centre for Translation @TranslationAtAU]

ANNOUNCING THE PANEL: 
Tarjuma-e-Ilmiya: Translating Knowledge

Rahul Sarwate, Sowmya Dechamma, Raza Kazmi, and Syed Jaleel Hussain will be in conversation with Rita Kothari on Saturday, 24th August.

Registrations are now open. Visit the link in our bio!

#Bhashavaad

[Press TV 🔻 @PressTV]

1 - How Iran shattered Israeli deterrence and redefined rules of engagement

By @Mosavi14

https://t.co/KxjXmkbF96

[Press TV 🔻 @PressTV]

✍️ Viewpoint - How Iran shattered Israeli deterrence and redefined rules of engagement

By @Mosavi14

https://t.co/KxjXmkb7jy

[Syed Zafar Mehdi @mehdizafar]

Dr. @Mosavi14 on Iran redefining redlines and rules of engagement. Spot on!

[Ahmad Noroozi @ANoroozee]

The True Promise operation has been a turning point in the creation of the new world order with Iran being its cornerstone.

[Syed Zafar Mehdi @mehdizafar]

The best analysis by @Mosavi14 on #Iran's retaliatory military action against #Israel and how it changed rules of engagement.

[Press TV 🔻 @PressTV]

✍🏻 Viewpoint - How Iran shattered Israeli deterrence and redefined rules of engagement

By Syed Jaleel Hussain

https://t.co/KxjXmkb7jy

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@mehdizafar 🤣🤣

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

Professor @s_m_marandi cruising on a ballistic path while intercepting all of the hypocrisy of the West!

[Ashok Kumar @comrade_kumar_]

This is a masterclass. Everyone watch this and bring your notepad

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@d_extrovert is right about the clear de-escalation pathways inherent in the nature, scope and the timing of the attack and the rhetoric used. It also makes strategic sense as to why Iran would not use the full range of its missile capabilities for such a limited attack.

[Kunal Singh @d_extrovert]

Really early at the moment, but a few pointers suggest or could, if verified, suggest that Iran intended this to be a limited attack with widely open de-escalation pathways. First, the tweet that claims that "the matter can be deemed concluded." https://t.co/F5QzaKifQF

[Centre for Islamic Thought and History @lu_cith]

Book launch with the author of the new and groundbreaking translation and edition of the Nahj al-Balagha, by Professor Tahera Qutbuddin (Oxford). Join us at Leiden University on 24 April at 5.00 pm. Details below.

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@HamdaniSameer Unfortunately, the academic discourse is increasingly serving the imperial .

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@Nazia_Akhtar27 @newindiafndtion Thank you Nazia. Your comments and suggestions were extremely helpful.

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

Thank you @SAPCornell for a year of ideas and excitement.

[Cornell South Asia Program @SAPCornell]

Congratulations to former SAP Visiting Scholar Syed Jaleel Hussain, who worked on his book proposal during his Fulbright year @EinaudiCenter

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

@dmbass6 @newindiafndtion Thank you Daniel. Your support and ideas have been extremely helpful.

[Jaleel Mehdi @Mosavi14]

Honoured to be the new @newindiafndtion fellow. Super excited!

[New India Foundation @newindiafndtion]

The New India Foundation is delighted to announce the seven remarkable recipients of Round 11 of the Book Fellowships.
@NandanNilekani @Ram_Guha @srinathraghava3