$SUI
SUI is testing the $1.03 - $1.71 resistance zone after holding the $0.49 - $0.65 support area.
The yellow scenario allows for a larger advance, but a larger bottom is not confirmed. That requires a 5-wave move up and a break above the resistance zone. If the larger wave C has begun, the 100% extension near $7.60 is a possible medium- to long-term target.
This is my Everything Code framework in a single chart...
Theres no growing out of debt at these levels, so governments have no choice but to print to pay the interest and borrow more on top.
On the face of it, we're all fucked.
But I find myself oddly optimistic. For decades we've been piling on debt and hoping a productivity miracle shows up, and for the first time it's not a far off impossibility with the dawn of the Exponential Age.
The Everything Code explains why we're stuck, how demographics and debt leave debasement as the only option and why that ends up driving almost every asset price. My Exponential Age framework is where we find our way out...
I've been building both for years now, and for the first time I've put them together in one place... my first book, The Everything Code.
What the hell is going on in the markets?
The Fed hiked for the first time in three years but everything's ripping...
So I asked my digital mind on https://t.co/yFk2cbGjG6 to explain the disconnect. For anyone who hasnt tried it yet its trained on 35 years of my research and thinks through markets the way I do, so when something happens that doesnt add up, you can ask it why, push back on the answer, and keep going until it clicks.
Its there whenever the market does something weird and I'm not...
Which is quite often.
Shorter terms, BTC has broken the downtrend vs NDX... and put in some perfect DeMark lows. (You can get those on Trading View - DeMark 9-13...I love DeMark). 2/
More powerful than any metric & a 100% strike rate.
When the Copper / Gold MACD bottoms & flips bullish,
Bitcoin has ALWAYS made new ATHs.
A perfect scenario would be one like below.
Clearly, we do not KNOW if the bottom is in & there is a LOT of uncertainty surrounding the markets right now.
But if I had to guess, any final capitulation event would mark the low and the reversal will be biblical.
When liquidity comes back, you do not want to be on the other side of it.
Everyone keeps saying liquidity is up so why isn't Bitcoin moving and the answer is actually pretty simple if you look at the TGA account which is basically the US government's checking account. There's $950B sitting in there right now and Trump needs about $600B of it to fund the tariff dividend he promised, $2k per household, but he pushed the timeline back to end of year. Meanwhile the Fed balance sheet IS expanding, that part is locked in, but the TGA is absorbing all of it. Government controls the TGA, not the Fed. So until those stimulus checks go out, this is the liquidity offset nobody's talking about.
I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.
If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.
REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.
This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further.
This is hitting markets and in particular crypto which is the most liquidity driven. TradiFi asset managers have had one of their worst years of performance vs benchmark and are now having to chase markets and that is allowing tech to be more stable than crypto. 401K flows help too. If this liquidity drain keeps going longer, stocks will get hit hard too.
However...
As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands.
The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow. Tariff negiotiations will have largely been completed, removing uncertainty
Ongoing bill issuance increases, adding more liquidity via bank balance sheets and money market funds (and stable coins).
Ongoing rate cuts (we will have economic weakness from the shutdown that will add to the evidence that rates need to come lower but no, there is no recession)..
SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion.
The CLARITY ACT will get passed, giving the crypto regs so deserately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall.
The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms. The entire system is now being geared toward a strong economy and strong market in 2026 for these elections.
China will continue to expand its balance sheet. Japan will work to strenghten the Yen, and also fiscally stimulate.
The ISM will rise as rates fall and tarrif uncertainty drops away.
You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead.
Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules...and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith.
BTFD if you can.
td:dr - When this number goes up, all number go up.
Here’s a little bit of magic most people don’t understand—until they do:
Every financial asset moves with the YoY rate of change in the ISM.
They all look identical.
It tells you exactly when the business cycle turns.
And what drives that?
Liquidity.
All of this is noise if you don't use leverage.
There are only 2 questions you need to ask as a long term holder:
Will tomorrow be more digital than today?
Has the liquidity cycle and business cycle topped or is it still rising to finance the $10trn that needs to roll in the next 12 months?
If both answer are yes then it's all noise. If your time horizon is 5 yrs + then the second part is just noise too.
BTFD and Don't Fuck This Up.
Thanks
Housing prices will crash hard.
The ponzi has collapsed.
The youth buy crypto with their spare money.
Nobody is saving for a deposit on mortgages to buy over price boomer jackpots.
Everyone hates banks.
Houses are too expensive.
Bitcoin is the solution.