$TEM
CEO Eric Lefkofsky:
I don't know if this is right. This is from our investor day, so I'll take it. I haven't verified it. I'm sure it's right because it was from an analyst who I think covers the space. They had said that they were kind of amazed that Eli Lilly had announced it was building its own model, and that it was kind of touting its 700 TB of data that it had collected over the past century.
(GS Analyst) Elizabeth Koslosky:
Yeah.
Eric Lefkofsky:
I think we generate 700 TB of data every 12 hours or something.
Elizabeth Koslosky:
Wow.
Eric Lefkofsky:
Every, I don't know, every 16 hours or something. It's that crazy.
��Tempus AI at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference
SHOCKER: S&P 500 will NOT fast track SpaceX. So it will take AT LEAST a year, probably more. This is wild considering every other big boy index is 5-15 days. This could create significant return dispersion bt 'passive' indexes. Choose wisely.
So $ABVX went from ~$180 after hours to ~$69 on the slide below, which people have (misguidedly IMO) interpreted as a cancer risk in the high dose arm.
This looks very much like noise - 2 cases (one each, a rate of 0.5%) of the 2 most common cancers in the world (breast and prostate). Zero cases in the low dose arm. NMSC is a throwaway side note and almost always age related - as they noted they *were* in this case. The only thing to adjudicate is the prostate and breast cases.
They also noted ZERO cases in the long term extension study from phase 2, which consisted of well over 100 patients and has had some patients on drug for 7+ years, ALL of them on drug for >2 years.
2 cases (again, 1 each) of the 2 most common cancers in the world among all those patients (P2+P3) over all those years. This is noise.
Let's say you *don't* think this is noise for the high dose...
Well, then it's a good thing that the low dose showed zero malignancy signal vs placebo and *still* came in with efficacy vastly above the market's expectations (39% delta vs 40% for the high dose).
The low dose with 39.3% delta and no cancer signal is right there with the (previously) highest reported efficacy drug, Rinvoq...Except, Rinvoq has a black box warning that has *5* bullet points:
-Serious infections "leading to hospitalization or death"
-Higher rate of all cause mortality "including sudden cardiovascular death"
-MALIGNANCIES "including lymphomas and lung cancers"
-Higher rate of MACE (including heart attacks and strokes)
-Thrombosis (including pulmonary embolism)
So, let's say you do think this gets a black box warning for malignancy risk (even despite all the notes above, and the fact that the low dose had zero cases of non-NMSC malignancy and was balanced with placebo on NMSC)...
...then you are looking at a WORST CASE scenario of 1 bullet on a black box warning versus *5* for Rinvoq (and the other JAK inhibitors).
The 2nd highest clinical remission delta for a non black box warning drug ever is...Entyvio at 26%....
So you have 2 JAKi with 5 black box warning "points" and remission deltas of 39.8% (Rinvoq) and 30% (Xeljanz).
Again, WORST case, $ABVX gets 1 black box warning "point" despite all the evidence that this is just noise and had 39.3% and 40.3% remission delta.
Want something without a black box? You're looking at 20-26% delta. And again, that's *if* this is actually something the FDA doesn't think is noise. You've got the 25mg dose with literally zero signal versus placebo and 7+year P2 dataset saying zero signal as well with many of those patients having been on higher than 25 mg doses.
At $70 AH this is a $6B company? Absurd from my perspective. At worst this is the most efficacious drug in the industry with a black box warning 1/5th as bad as the JAKis that do big numbers in this disease at WORST.
The rumors are true 👀
Proud of the CoreWeave engineering team and our partners (like @Dell) who are the first to have a fully working @nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72, achieving yet another major milestone in bringing next-generation AI infrastructure online.
Stay tuned, there is so much more to come...
I am long The Elmet Group $ELMT. Three weeks after its IPO, priced at $14, peaked at $22, now trading lower.
The price action has moved past the IPO hype, which makes this a reasonable moment to look at the fundamentals on their own terms. (1/n)
Small $CPRX position. In Nov 2025, Angelini's CEO told Milano Finanza he already had "a shortlist of three companies" for a US pharma acquisition and was "in an evaluation phase." (translated from Milano Finanza)
Small $CPRX position. In Nov 2025, Angelini's CEO told Milano Finanza he already had "a shortlist of three companies" for a US pharma acquisition and was "in an evaluation phase." (translated from Milano Finanza)
The name of the company… NewBird AI. It is a cutting-edge, AI-native cloud infrastructure firm out of- well, they used to be out of San Francisco making sneakers, but forget that, John- they are now awaiting imminent deployment of next-generation GPU compute clusters that have both massive enterprise and consumer applications. Now, right now, John, the stock trades on the Nasdaq at about the price of a cup of coffee. And by the way, John, our analysts indicate it could go a heck of a lot higher than that. And John- one more thing- they're up 160% just today