Lee Cain

Founder @CharlesbyeStrat | Former Director of Communications @10DowningStreet | Trustee & Mentor @SocialMobilityF

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

@rcolvile “They’ll still vote for them if there is a party they hate more” perfectly sums up our political age

[james lyons @James___Lyons]

The situation for the Prime Minister and the government is now so volatile that the Makerfield by-election could be extending Keir Starmer’s time in office.

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

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[Matthijs van de Burgwal @MvdBurgwal]

Prediction: future historians will look back on the degrowth movement as this century’s equivalent of the pacifist movements of the 20th century: driven by naïve moral signalling, fashionable in elite circles, and dangerously undermining freedom, democracy and human progress.

[Matthijs van de Burgwal @MvdBurgwal]

Prediction: future historians will look back on the degrowth movement as this century’s equivalent of the pacifist movements of the 20th century: driven by naïve moral signalling, fashionable in elite circles, and dangerously undermining freedom, democracy and human progress.

[Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound]

Kemi Badenoch has conveniently cut the question I asked her, which was directly relating to propping up Reform AFTER an election as an alternative to Labour plus some crazy lefties.
That's when she said there must never be another left wing govt.
Her 'no, no, no...' answer was about pacts BEFORE an election. It did not follow on directly.
Yes, she says Reform has some left-wing policies, but she made totally clear she would work with a party pursuing a 'conservative' agenda, which is clearly what Reform is mostly advocating.
The proof is that she says she is already in a casual arrangement with Rupert Lowe. The lady doth protest too much. It was very clear in the room what I was asking
NO ONE, me or her, was talking about a coalition

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

It’s taken directly from the @spectator write up (which I would say is very well written and revealing)

[Michael Gove @michaelgove]

I am huge fan of @MrLeeCain but hus take doesn’t reflect what Kemi Badenoch actually said… worth listening to the full - great - interview !

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

Extraordinary nugget in @ShippersUnbound’s excellent interview with Kemi Badenoch. Asked directly if she’d put Farage into No.10 if he fell short of a majority, she made clear the answer is yes. Seems very politically naive in both directions. Voters on the right now have one fewer reason to back the Tories over Reform. And in London and Lib Dem swings seats, the anti reform coalition just got a gift: “Vote Tory, get Farage.” No real upside to announcing this two years before polling day. Fascinated to see how CCHQ handle the follow ups….

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

On Makerfield: Our pre-locals research with Charlesbye showed that multi-party politics is here to stay, and if anything we are likely to see further fracturing.

> 2x as many Green/Reform voters say they'd look for a new party rather than return to Labour/Conservatives

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

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[Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound]

One aside on the Blair conversation

I’m absolutely gobsmacked at the level of hostility to “tech bros” and the belief that we can just insulate ourselves from AI and technology

Like listening to weavers on the spinning Jenny or Hanson cab drivers on the advent of the motor car

[Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound]

One aside on the Blair conversation

I’m absolutely gobsmacked at the level of hostility to “tech bros” and the belief that we can just insulate ourselves from AI and technology

Like listening to weavers on the spinning Jenny or Hanson cab drivers on the advent of the motor car

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

😂😂

[Prosper UK @Prosper_UK_]

The 2019 coalition has left the station.

The Conservative Party will not rebuild by trying to recreate it. And Chasing Reform risks shrinking the party further.

The opportunity now is to build a broad, pro-growth, centre-right coalition focused on living standards and competence.

As @gavinbarwell pointed out here

https://t.co/e8ZZ9cFCbM

[Prosper UK @Prosper_UK_]

The 2019 coalition has left the station.

The Conservative Party will not rebuild by trying to recreate it. And Chasing Reform risks shrinking the party further.

The opportunity now is to build a broad, pro-growth, centre-right coalition focused on living standards and competence.

As @gavinbarwell pointed out here

https://t.co/e8ZZ9cFCbM

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

On Restore: Facebook overlooked relative to X by most in terms of its reach with ordinary voters.

I now regularly hear people organically bring up Lowe's fb content in groups.

Lowe has *1.3mn followers* on fb. To put that into perspective, Starmer has 650k, Burnham has 65k...

[Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall]

Striking things about this poll

Labour are ahead after tanking in Red Wall in locals (Burnham effect)

How well Restore are doing

How badly Conservatives are doing

The third party of the right

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

Amid all the political noise, this is such an important issue that is finally getting some attention

[Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak]

Excl - Alan Milburn reveals his report finds govt spends TWENTY FIVE times as much on benefits for young people as helping them find work - tells us it’s ‘shameful’

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

Great to be on @SpectatorCH with the wonderful @ShippersUnbound & @hoffman_noa to discuss the fortunes of the Conservatives. Noa’s piece in the @Spectator is a must-read - very revealing on where Kemi’s team think the Tories stand. Listen below 👇

https://t.co/OJQUfNFnZ9

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

"Shambles." "In disarray." "Stuck in the past."

The picture was also gloomy for the Conservatives. With people looking for change, 34% of voters describe them as "establishment" with just 6% calling them "radical", against 31% for Reform.
42% of Reform voters - the people the party most needs to win back - say they don't think about the Conservatives at all.

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

This should be an enormous opportunity for the leaders standing opposite him. And yet, the most volatile electorate in a generation is still waiting to be won.

💙 Kemi Badenoch is the most personally liked party leader, 19% of the public call her ‘a leader’, higher than any other, but 42% of the Reform voters she needs to win back say they no longer think about the Conservative Party at all. Only 5% of voters describe her as 'radical'. That is almost identical to Starmer's 4%. The leader of the opposition and the Prime Minister are seen as equally un-radical in a country where 69% want systemic change.

🩵 Nigel Farage is the only genuinely two-sided figure in the field. 1 in 4 voters described him as ‘is racist’ (24%) and ‘divisive’ (22%), his joint-highest scores, but they are matched almost exactly by ‘patriotic’ (20%), ‘strong’ (19%), ‘a leader’ (18%) and ‘radical’ (18%). No other leader comes close to generating that combination of intensity on both sides of the political spectrum.

💚 In our focus groups, Zack Polanski consistently drew the most positive language of anyone we tested, but 23% of voters don't know who he is, and outside London, that number is higher still. That said, the two most common terms to describe him were ‘deluded’ (17%) and ‘weird’ (16%). As awareness of the Green leader’s political profile increases across the country, the challenge for him will be to build his base of supporters to compete with Labour.

Hear what voters think of Kemi below 👇

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

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[Rachel Wolf @racheljanetwolf]

Kemi’s performances in PMQs are impressive. Her approval rating is rising and is less negative than others.
But Hague was considered an exceptional PMQs performer.
MPs were delighted with May’s early performances.
This is not what people care about. It’s Westminster minutiae.

[Lee Cain @MrLeeCain]

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[Tom McTague @TomMcTague]

The scale of the HS2 failure is a national scandal which should prompt a complete overhaul of the state. That it won’t is only further evidence of our malaise.