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Residual disparity after statistical controls doesn’t automatically point to culture. It can just as easily point to incomplete measurement.
Most administrative datasets don’t fully capture:
•Intensity of police presence by micro-area
•Stop-and-search frequency per capita
•Social network clustering
•Trauma exposure rates
•Gang injunction geography
•Housing instability cycles
•Multi-generational concentrated deprivation
If matched cohorts still show disparity, the scientific question is whether the model fully specified structural variables and not whether we’ve reached the limits of structure and must now infer culture
Residual does not equal inherent. It means unaccounted variance. In social science, that’s usually a sign we need better variables, not broader generalizations.
Right, so we agree the strongest predictors are age, sex, and deprivation. That already tells us we’re looking at concentrated social conditions, not something inherent to a census box.
What concerns me is how quickly the conversation returns to the racial label after we’ve just identified the structural variables doing most of the work.
Once you control for age and deprivation and the gap narrows but remains, that doesn’t automatically validate race as causal. It may, however, indicate we haven’t fully measured the structural variables yet. Aggregated controls rarely capture policing intensity, gang injunction geography, housing segregation history, school exclusion feedback loops, or social network effects.
Disaggregating by age, exclusion rates, deprivation, and enforcement geography is absolutely the right move. My concern is that when we foreground the racial aggregate first, it frames public interpretation before the structural nuance arrives. History shows how easily that framing slides into group essentialism, even unintentionally.
Good, I’m glad you clarified ‘not biology
What does the category itself do to the interpretation of the pattern?
When we say:
“Black or Black British = 42–47% of knife crime suspects”
we are using a broad administrative label that compresses:
•Multiple national origins
•Multiple socioeconomic positions
•Vastly different neighborhood conditions
•A younger average age profile
•Disproportionate policing intensity in specific boroughs
into one visual category.
That compression matters Aggregate data is useful for policy, but it becomes dangerous when broad racial labels stand in for more precise drivers like age concentration, deprivation clustering, school exclusion rates, or policing patterns. If we’re serious about solutions, we should disaggregate by the actual causal variable
Statistics describe contact with a system. They don’t automatically explain why that contact exists. Are we analyzing structural conditions or implying biology?
Certainly you’re not suggesting that citing a single crime category in one city, filtered through broad administrative labels like ‘Black or Black British,’ tells us something essential about millions of people, right?
Yeah… we don’t think like that. The black people that you’re watching doesn’t represent the views of majority of black people. Not only is the black person you’re replying to letting you know otherwise, but I am also. How about a deeper dive into the black community’s views
@TrustDML Yeah, because a couple Somalian men represent the African American community, so call them Ni**ers 🙄 you don’t see how illogical and racist that line of thinking is?
@TersyBouley@LeilaniDowding@Rothbard1776 Exactly! She should provide them when they meet live via zoom. Until then, how can you be 100% confident that TPUSA had no involvement?
@TersyBouley@LeilaniDowding@Rothbard1776 Let’s not move the goal post. She doesn’t need to be there in person to do provide or receive “proof”.
And if CO is the one who has proof/questions/evidence about TPUSA’s involvement, why would I have the ability to produce that? That’s what this meeting is intended to be for
If she believes TPUSA had an involvement in CK’s, why on earth would her team advice her to go in person?
Oh, but she said time and place
yes, emotionally in the moment, but the smart thing to do would be to Zoom if they did off CK. There’s no good reason to show up in person