Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️

Analyst | Russia-Ukraine | U.S. National Security
MA @UTCREEES and MA @TheLBJSchool
Personal Views Only.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

A building that was our home for almost three years was partially destroyed.
My parents were discussing preparations for the difficult winter, when out of the blue, a missile struck 60 feet away from their windows. Wounded/killed TBD.

This war is real and it didn’t go away.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@LauraStarink1 Engaging through proven mediators like 🇹🇷 or the Gulf states, maybe even 🇨🇳. Slowly detract from the language of ultimatums, assigning blame, develop basic understanding of red lines. UKR needs this war over more than RUS for all the right reasons - saving lives and country

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

When will Russia rehabilitate itself in the eyes of Ukraine, Mr. Ambassador?

[Mikhail Ulyanov @Amb_Ulyanov]

Bulgaria rehabilitates itself in the eyes of Russians. Good.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

https://t.co/5C0m2PSV0O

[Kevin Rothrock @MrKevinRothrock]

"When I sent that letter to Putin, I knew exactly what I wanted. I think I got the result I was looking for," Zelensky says at a meeting with Baltic state leaders, apparently acknowledging that it wasn't intended to facilitate negotiations. (Duh.) https://t.co/mgCoPL59SH

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

Short🧵

This is exactly the reaction that Zelenskyy’s letter was aiming for. It was not a constructive attempt to engage Russia.

In all honesty, if we take the ideological lenses out, how else should Putin have responded — suddenly realized that it’s time to stop the war? /1

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Putin: Zelenskyy's letter is rude.

Is it a way to create conditions for a personal meeting and negotiations, or is it creating an environment in which any personal meetings are impossible?

I think it's the second

[Playfra @Playfra0]

10/🧵

In conclusion, the defense of Druzhkivka has very good potential, with some weak spots that the Ukrainians must be careful to cover appropriately.

Capable units are also stationed in this general direction of the front, and barring unforeseen catastrophes and/or Russian breakthroughs, which should never be excluded from thought and analysis, the battle for Druzhkivka's approaches might last as long as Kostyantynivka and exhaust the Russians in this area enough to thwart their plans for a south-north attack into the last strongholds of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, thereby forcing them to search more costly ways of advancing through the New Donbas Line.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@LauraStarink1 The fighting will go on regardless of what I say. E3 meetings and endless declarations don’t get us anywhere closer to peace. I don’t have the monopoly on truth, but if history of this conflict is of any aid, then what I’m saying shouldn’t be revelatory.

[POLITICOEurope @POLITICOEurope]

Bulgaria will no longer send weapons to Ukraine, the country’s Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov has announced.

The move has cemented the new government’s opposition to EU support for Kyiv.
https://t.co/ygjX3qsCd0

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@LauraStarink1 With all due respect to Trump, despite his promises to bring the war to an end, he’s not required to do that. We’re not discussing the morality of this war, but rather looking for an effective way to end it. E3 statements provide nothing more than a dopamine boost at this point

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@AmbDanFried @JacobHeilbrunn Our backgrounds can be a double edged sword. The negative effects of inherent biases that come with a particular background shouldn’t be overlooked

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@LauraStarink1 I don’t disagree, but there’s not much willingness on both sides for an amicable compromise, and the last four years since Istanbul talks serve as proof. We’ve seen this number so many times - just remember all the “peace summits” that were supposed to “pressure” RU
@AmbDanFried

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@AmbDanFried And if Pres. Trump wanted to end the war in Iran, it could just end the war too. Outcomes don’t arrive by simply wishing them into existence

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@AmbDanFried It’s just rehashing previous set of terms that RUS already declined. It’s a nice wish list, but in no way this is a viable way of negotiating peace/ceasefire.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@ABarbashin @RiddleRussia Great project! I’m sure the article on Armenia is going to gain a lot of attention, and I’ll be interested to read it.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@nik0p0l5 ATESH is pretty much a Ukrainian info op. I wish them success with whatever they’re trying to do here ofc

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

Russian military bloggers didn’t *and wouldn’t* disclose anything that could further compromise RUS logistics in occupied UKR.

What @joni_askola is referring to here is a statement by AFU South spokesperson, Vladyslav Voloshyn, who has a vested interest in shaping the info space

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@geogvma @VladDavidzon @bmilakovsky Yeah, my *try* in reasoning with them is pulling a lot of weight there, but that’s what this kind of system is for. I’m grateful we have it. Calling for Omar’s deportation isn’t only ridiculous, but it also weakens pro-UKR moral high ground.

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@VladDavidzon @bmilakovsky @geogvma I appreciate you engaging with my comments and not calling for my deportation).
The bill highly unlikely to pass the Senate nor survive Trump’s veto anyhow.
A smart person can always try to reason with ppl they disagree with rather than petitioning to be in the deportation troika

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@VladDavidzon @bmilakovsky @geogvma “A Ukrainian immigrant from Central Asia” does sound third world-ish too, imho, by your standards. I really wonder where supposedly smart and def educated people get all this hatred toward their neighbors (however “parasitic” they consider them to be).

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

UKR 3rd Army Corps’ official statement and video: https://t.co/hR66GLt2BW

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

UKR 3rd Army Corps recently claimed their drones can monitor the state border between occ Luhansk O and Russia

With time, AFU could interdict M-4 Highway and railroad linking Moscow to Rostov-on-Don, which is the main supply route for M-14 in occ south UKR and for RUS Donbas ops

[Сіль 🇺🇦 @solonko1648]

Вийде чи ні, поки питання відкрите. Проте, якщо від Ізвариного - це ще 20-30 кілометрів відстані, то гадаю це цільком можливо. 5

[Misha Simanovskyy🕯️🕯️🕯️ @MSimanovskyy]

@rochowanski The tree of ever-growing pipe dreams must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of expendable citizens of foreign countries