Nate Perius

Civil Engineer by trade. Sports/geography nerd and wana be ski bum at heart.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@TheTigersBurner @Reddit_FCS Its not just about the last couple years. EVERY season since 1978 is factored in the calculation. Though more recent seasons to carry more weight.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Robert_K_Martin @Reddit_FCS I think you missed the part explaining this this ISN'T specific to the upcoming season.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

Historical calculated expectations (and rankings) for FCS programs after each season since 1978.
Methodology described here:
https://t.co/f4gyupxgO8

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@MarkMor96582515 @Reddit_FCS For this exercise, i only included Idaho's seasons in FCS

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@jamesaldrich25 @FCSFansNation @Reddit_FCS How good a team has been (on average) the last 5 years is 41.5% of the calculation. The 10 years before that is 27.7%, the 15 years before that is 18.5%, and the 17 years before that is 12.3%

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

Updated FCS expectations tier list following the 2024 season.
Tiers show what general level of expectations can reasonably be had for each program going forward (and NOT for just next season) based on how good they have been in the past.
https://t.co/8vvcgeNvpw

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@mattyfbrown And they do the exact opposite. 1 play TD drive for the Lions. Yikes

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@pstreat3 @Reddit_FCS UT Martin has been a fringe T-25 team on average the last 5 years, but every era before that their average finish was outside the top 50. In fact most of the time they were averaging outside the top 75.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing the new version!
This time I also included a chart showing exactly how the different tiers are broken up based on equivalent weighted average finish.

[RedditFCS @Reddit_FCS]

Back in May, a fan over in /r/FCS proposed an FCS tier list for expectations of the subdivision moving forward.

And now that fan (/u/MT_Nate, aka @MT_NateP) is back with an update!

https://t.co/kXzRhK7JF7

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@celebrityhottub @el_surberino
I've been binging We're Not All Like This while traveling and have been loving it!
If you guys ever want to do a special episode and mess with the format a bit, may I suggest a #BrawlOfTheWild episode covering both @MSUBobcats_FB & @MontanaGrizFB

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Brad64549130 @Reddit_FCS The tier names are more just a way of classifying the tiers and not explicitly about the playoffs.
I thought about only including teams from conferences that play in the FCS playoffs, but the Ivies and HBCU's both receive votes in the FCS rankings so I analyzed them as well.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@TylerGMF @Reddit_FCS Add Colorado St to get to 12. That way everyone has their natural rival.
WSU-OSU, BSU-UI, UW-CSU, UM-MSU, UND-NDSU, USD-SDSU

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@lgbtqsyd @Reddit_FCS It's not that they have been a playoff regular, but that it's reasonable to expect them to be one going forward.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Reddit_FCS @drnoe5 @TNTechFootball Correct. I skipped them on accident when building the graphic.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@bed__wards @Reddit_FCS They are the team I expect to "overachieve" the most according to the graphic.
The graphic is based solely on past results (to keep my biases out as much as possible) and they just don't have the history of success (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS)... yet.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@skramerwrites @Reddit_FCS Idaho is the team I most expect to exceed what I calculated. They just haven't had the history of success yet (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS) for the formula to have them higher on the list.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@JDWilliams23 @Reddit_FCS I by no means expect it to be perfectly accurate.
It's really based on the old adage that "the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior".
Another way to think about it is how good programs can be reasonably expected to be based on how good they've been before.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing it! I'll try to answer any questions people have about how I created it.

[Nate Perius @MT_NateP]

@Gdub_Udub @JeremiahOshan Eventually you are what your record says you are. And their record doesn't exactly inspire confidence.