Marcus Aurelius

I post metagame and win rate visualizations

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

A better way to visualize true win rates

(data from @MTGdecks - last 30 days)

@fireshoes @OptimusTomTV @AzoriusI

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

One Weird Trick to improve your feed

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

I will not apologize

[Saffron Olive @SaffronOlive]

I'm glad people are liking Riftbound. We play games to have fun, and if you're have fun playing Riftbound you should, even if it means playing less (or zero) Magic.

Lands being the best resource system though? That's a hill I'm willing to die on.

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@SkillIssueMagic @fireshoes It's a good day to be a Dimir Midrange guide enjoyer

[Skill Issue Magic @SkillIssueMagic]

Skill Issue deck guides 📖 October 2026 Update:

Only 21 free guides this month, but there were many cool articles/paid guides as well recorded in the spreadsheet. Still seeing lots of free lengthy google docs for us all to digest as well, which is great!

#mtgguides
@fireshoes

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

4/4

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Win rates visualized - last 7 days of Standard (Bo1)

Relevant for Arena Qualifier Play-ins (Oct 24/25)

Data from Untapped. Plat to Mythic. Per request of @LucaBrunetti9 @motow cc @fireshoes

🧵 1/4

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Winrates visualized - last 7 days in Standard

MTGA ladder, Plat to Mythic, data from Untapped (way bigger sample sizes than MTGdecks)

cc @fireshoes

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

3/4

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@unityleaguemtg It's so awesome that you guys are doing national championships. It gives the tournament gravitas without costing money - winning it feels like it means something you can be extra proud of.

@wizards_magic bring back state championships!

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@DeclareAttacks I think the deck's critical turn is t3. If we play a 4 drop on t3 our winrate is high, if we don't, it's low. We just need one of our dorks alive on t3

Our 3 drops are mid (Clarion Conqueror is usually just a 3/3, warped Nova Hellkite is usually meh) but our 4 drops are strong

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Improving Boros Dragons:

1) Spider Manifestation is better than Voice of Victory

Why: They always kill Momo, but the deck REALLY wants to play 4-mana dragons on T3

Everything untaps Spider Manifestation. Voice has zero synergies

2) Play 3 Soulstone Sanctuary

Why: The mana can easily support 2-3, and the deck has few mana sinks, and runs out of gas easily.

Maelstrom of the Sprit Dragon is great but it's like a 9-10 mana investment to play a dragon vs getting a 3/3 vigilance for 4. Especially with all the planeswalkers going around, a hasty Soulstone is scary

3) Play 2 Elegant Parlor

Why: The deck has few actual 1-drops (4 momo, and ~5% of the time Burst Lightning t1) so the deck can afford 2 Elegant Parlor to smooth out draws and mitigate flood/screw

The deck has no card draw/selection, so flood/screw is a real issue

We only have a t1 play ~45% of games, meaning 55% of the time Elegant Parlor is only upside, and even if we have momo, there is a fairly high % chance there will be at least one turn where we can play it without tempo loss

Could play Restless Bivouac instead, I'm not sure which is better

4) Play 4 Smaug. Yes, it's legendary, but if they don't kill your first one, they're dead anyway. It's so good.

cc @fireshoes

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Reanimentals is better than Reanimator

45-20 in high Mythic

Plan A: reanimator
Plan B: elementals

1. Ashling is INSANE in this deck. Discards Bringer, digs for combo pieces, fixes mana, and ramps out Spiderman/elementals

2. Deck is consistent and resilient against hate: 4 Wistfulness + 4 Deceit + 4 Formidable Speaker to tutor them... or just cast 5 drops every turn and 3-for-1 them until they're dead

3. Mana is actually not bad due to 4 Caverns, 4 Secluded Courtyards + Ashling

4. The 3 Osborne Industries have discard synergy, but they're mostly for the colors. The deck has no t1 plays so a few tap lands are fine

5. In my testing I found Bitter Triumph and Requiting Hex were worse than just playing more elementals for the flexible interaction and synergies. Vibrance kills things, Deceit shreds their hand, Wistfulness destroys their hate piece, discards Bringer, etc.

6. The deck combos on t4 quite consistently, so fast aggro has trouble going under it. Yet it goes over the top of almost everything and grinds so hard you deck yourself often against control

7. Inspiration: I played a lot of elementals and found the flexslots consistently mid (bounce off, Winternight Stories, etc). I never wanted to discard stuff to Ashling, which got me thinking about... what WOULD be good to discard? Superior Spiderman/Bringer package fit perfectly in the flexslots

People have played Ashling in reanimator lists before, but those lists did worse in my testing

If you're going to play Reanimator over this, which is reasonable - sample sizes here are small - I do think Seasoned Cryomancer is worth including. Maybe the new 1 drop too, not sure

cc @fireshoes

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Yeah I also sided out Voice constantly

For the taplands, there are for sure downsides. Some considerations:

- We only have momo in hand t1 ~40% of the time, so 60% of the time it's no issue at all
- We can also play momo t2 if our next spot on the curve is a 4 drop, with no loss of tempo
- We can often play momo + dragon any other turn for free

I think it's worth it, but it's not a sure thing. I'm sure about Soulstones though

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Winrates visualized - last 7 days in Standard

MTGA ladder, Plat to Mythic, data from Untapped (way bigger sample sizes than MTGdecks)

cc @fireshoes

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@mami_mtg @peimsloot @JasonRodgers283 I think Conqueror is the worst card in the deck. It's usually just a 3/3 flier that pumps Sarkhan, but it nonbos with Spider and Sarkhan/Smaug treasures. I would move it to the SB in a heartbeat if there were any better 3 drops

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@Cloudscraper Why do you think so? Even with 3 Soulstone, every slot is at or above Karsten's recommended sources

(except T1 Burst Lightning, but that's only relevant ~5% of games due to the chain of dependent probabilities)

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@SuperAggo Probably, though it slightly decreases the probability of the Sunbillow Verges being online

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

@Cloudscraper I'm testing -1 Spider Manifestation +1 Lorehold, the Historian right now to increase the threat density a bit

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Thanks! I don't have one, but sideboarding is pretty straightforward here.

- Cut dead removal in grindy matchups and bring in the cards that aren't dead

- Swap premium removal (Erode) for cheap removal (Seam Rip) vs aggro

- Bring in RIP against GY decks

I think I'm going to cut Sheltered by Ghosts since I never board it in, but not sure what to bring in

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Deck is good and the easiest deck in Standard imo

They kill our Dragons = we lose
They don't kill our Dragons = we win

Per @mami_mtg's rec I just cut 1 Pyroclasm for 1 Chandra in the SB, because Spider Manifestation ramps into it, and I needed 1 more SB card for the control matchups (leaving in Burst Lightning feels bad). Also this version (without Voice) is much worse for Pyroclasm since it kills too many of our creatures

[Marcus Aurelius @MTG_Aurelius]

Solitary Cell is interesting. It competes with Burst Lightning for killing small stuff. Really not sure about the removal package, I'm just copying other lists there and hoping the hivemind knows best. It's usually the manabases where I feel like the most obvious errors are. Like, not playing Soulstone in this deck is just obviously wrong

So far, the Clarion/Spider nonbo like never comes up. One of them always dies before it can, and I usually skip playing Clarion in favor of a 4-drop on T3

Haven't tried Magda, seems like it requires too much to go right for it to be better than Spider, but idk!