MT | Research Notes

My research notes on crypto & money. 9 years as investor, CM & builder.

Learn to make, manage & master your own money.

Crypto 60% · Money 35% · Shitposts 5%

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

Hello, I’m MT.

1,000+ of you are following now. Thank you! ❤

We all know 1,000 is a small number. I see it as a starting point: a place to learn crypto and money together, in public.

A bit about me: 9 years as an investor, community manager and builder in crypto. Here I share my research notes on crypto and money, plus a few shitposts.

What you’ll find:
- How I research projects and opportunities
- What I did with my own money, wins and losses
- Lessons on how to make, manage and keep your money
- The mindset and psychology behind money decisions

I’d love to connect with:
- web3 builders and project teams
- investors and active players
- creators
- friends on X growing financially and personally

Now it’s your turn. Say hi and introduce yourself: what are you learning or building right now? I promise to read and reply to every comment.

All my notes are for education and information only. Not financial advice.

Keep your money first. Make money second.
– MT 📝

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

Keep your money first. Make money second.

I learned this the expensive way.

I started learning about crypto in 2017. On January 2, 2018, I opened my Binance account. $BTC had already peaked. The whole crypto market peaked five days later.

In the 2018 winter, I lost 90% of my capital.

My first big loss came from one project. I fell for its rosy picture of the future. I married the story and ignored the numbers.

Nine years in, here's who I am:
- Most of what I've earned came from early-stage opportunities: token sales, Launchpool, airdrops, DeFi
- 2020-2023: marketing team of a crypto project, plus community management

So I know what a project shows you, and what to check instead.

A poker lesson I use every day: if you can't spot the easy money at the table, you are the easy money.

The crypto table is full:
- insiders and early funds with tokens to unlock
- bots that react before you can
- accounts paid to sound sure
- and your own FOMO

That's why this profile is my public crypto diary: Binance Alpha, airdrops, token launches and sales, and the trades I take.

How it works:
- Transparent: I rate each opportunity from S to F before I join, then share the result. Trades get posted when they close, with the trade card and my reasoning. Wins and losses both go up.
- Experience-based: everything here is what I did with my own money. My money, my responsibility.
- Work and learn: I show the process and keep improving it, so you can learn the method, not copy the trade.
- Open feedback loop: you comment, I read and reply. Good ideas from the comments often become my next post.
- Only wins and lessons: a loss is only wasted if you learn nothing from it.

Skipping is a skill too. It's how you keep your money.

Your turn: what are you most tempted to buy right now? Tell me in the comments.

Monk's soul, predator's focus.
MT Lab Research

Experience, not financial advice.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@BitcoinArchive Miami found a way to make paying taxes slightly less painful. Still taxes, though.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@BittexXBT ZEC trading on geopolitical headlines now. Privacy coins have a new volatility trigger.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@WatcherGuru Microsoft won the race by $3 billion. Nvidia probably lost a rounding error.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Cryptic_Web3 China just bundled AI, blockchain and bureaucracy into one mega-protocol.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Cointelegraph Not your keys, not your coins… now apparently, not your country's permission either.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@AshCrypto ETH really said: character development? Never heard of it. 🤷‍♀️

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Gangsterjitu

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Mahirazmol1 Yes, on both counts. Headline was 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, and core was 0.3% vs 0.2%. The odd part is there’s no annual rate this month, so it’s the monthly prints doing all the talking.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

Hot CPI, priced-in hike: 98.9% priced in. The CPI news was in the other 1.1%.

Before the October CPI, CME FedWatch gave a 25 bp December hike a 98.9% chance and a 50 bp hike 1.1%. Then the print came in at 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, with core at 0.3% vs 0.2%. Hours later the 50 bp odds read about 11% to 15%, depending on the hour and the source.

The Fed's direction did not change. The size did. Fed Governor Waller had said a 50 bp hike should be considered if core ran around 0.3% or higher, and core ran at 0.3%. The Fed decides on Dec 9.

There is no year-on-year number this month: the 2025 shutdown left no October 2025 data to compare with. The monthly prints carry the story.

What to take from it:
- A "hot" headline is a surprise against a forecast the market already held. What matters is what the surprise does to the odds.
- When the likely outcome is 98.9%, the information lives in the tail. A 1% chance became roughly 1 in 8 on one release.
- Odds move by the hour. Sources show 11.3% to 15.3% for the same afternoon, so check the tool yourself.
- A plan that needs the likely outcome to be the only outcome is fragile. Size it for the tail.

Which did you check first on CPI day, the print or the odds?

Experience, not financial advice.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

Inflation is expected to cool to 0.3% and a Fed hike is still 80% priced!

October CPI prints Nov 10 at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, down from +0.6% and +0.3% in September. The Fed held rates on Oct 28 with two members voting for a hike, and CME FedWatch puts a quarter-point hike on Dec 8-9 above 80%.

Four things you should know before taking any action:
- A steady 0.3% a month adds up to about 3.7% a year. The Fed wants 2%.
- Markets trade the surprise, not the number. A hike this likely is already in prices, and BofA's Stephen Juneau says only a very soft 0.1% month would likely stop it.
- There is no official annual rate this time. October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so any annual figure you see is an estimate (BofA says 3.8% headline, Unicredit 4.0%).
- One print is one month. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says AI data center spending increasingly looks like old-fashioned demand overheating, and that is a trend, not a blip.

Experience, not financial advice.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@sallubroz AI should be the tutor, not the student secretly taking the exam. 😅

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@sallubroz Small on paper: 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. The hike was already ~99% priced in, so the real surprise was the 50 bp odds jumping from 1.1% to about 11-15%. The market just reacted violently... ☠

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

Sources:
CBS News, October CPI 0.4% vs 0.3% expected, no year-on-year: https://t.co/MCdzH0jg3H
Stocktitan, core 0.3% vs 0.2%, Waller's threshold: https://t.co/0sm3Xk76ak
Yahoo Finance, drivers and the missing annual rate: https://t.co/eBr6opWUI2
TechFlow (Jin10), FedWatch before the release, 98.9% and 1.1%: https://t.co/3g89JiJFoF
PANews, FedWatch after the release, 84.7% and 15.3%: https://t.co/AB1OCNN5lI
ActionForex, 88.7% and 11.3%: https://t.co/wSqZ7ajao4
BLS, September CPI +0.6%: https://t.co/cJTlwpFU6Q

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Gangsterjitu SaaS built the toll roads. AI agents just learned how to fly.

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@cryptohouse0x Financial freedom is loading… unfortunately, all 12 wallets are syncing. ⏳

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@MicNguyenn105 BitMine isn't just accumulating ETH anymore. It's building an entire staking empire. 🏯

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@sallubroz History’s hidden gems are often buried between yesterday’s ads and yesterday’s headlines. 📰

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@BitcoinArchive Quantum computing might break Bitcoin, but apparently address hygiene is still the first boss...

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@Cointelegraph $600B revenue? Claude isn't taking jobs, it's taking entire income statements. 🤣

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@pete_rizzo_ When Dalio says buy Bitcoin, even the fiat system starts sweating. 😂

[MT | Research Notes @MTLabResearch]

@CoinMarketCap