WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE!
We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!
Today the answer seem simple!
Let me break it down.
1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.
2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.
3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".
4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.
5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.
6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.
7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.
8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.
9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.
10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.
11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!
I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet!
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Fun fact: I met @VitalikButerin in 2013 at the San Jose Bitcoin conference when he was writing for Bitcoin Magazine (his writing was great).
A few months later I invited him to come by Coinbase's first office in San Francisco for a visit and he showed us some cool stuff on his laptop. Fred, Olaf, and I decided we should try to hire him, and reached out to see if he would be interested in joining us. But due to a series of circumstances, including him not being able to get a work visa in the U.S., it didn't work out and he had to go back to Canada.
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The $Pump fundraise and airdrop fiasco has turned into an absolute disgrace. https://t.co/jcSfcKz8ly should be embarrassed with themselves. You make billions of dollars and screw over the people who believe in your product.