Zhodan

Learning macro, bonds, liquidity & financial markets in public.

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

Starting something new: going back to basics on macro and financial markets.

The stuff that actually drives everything else, including crypto and risk assets:

• Bonds.
• Interest rates.
• Yield curves.
• Liquidity.
• Credit.
• Currencies.
• Monetary policy.

I’ll post the journey here as it happens. What I learn, what actually clicks, what I get wrong, and the questions I can’t answer yet.

No shortcuts, no rushing it — just building real understanding piece by piece, in public.

If you want to learn alongside me, follow along.

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

𝟏𝟎𝐘 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲��𝐚𝐫 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 ≠ 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠.

1. Hotter US Growth Data

-September flash Composite PMI jumped to 58.4, the highest since July 2021.

-Strong activity = less confidence that rates fall quickly.

2. Inflation is still a problem

-The PMI showed input-price pressures rising sharply, while elevated oil prices are adding another inflation risk.

-That makes the market worry about persistent inflation, not just temporary weakness.

3. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations

-The Fed already hiked 25 bp on Sept. 16.

-Strong growth + sticky inflation has put another hike back on the table.

4. Real yields are high

-The 10Y isn’t rising purely because of expected inflation. Higher expected real short-term rates are a major contributor to the longer-term yield move.

5. Term premium is elevated

-Investors demand additional compensation for locking money into a 10-year bond when uncertainty around inflation, rates and the economic/fiscal outlook is high.

-Recent research attributes a substantial part of the rise in 10Y yields to real-rate expectations + real term premium.

6. Fiscal/debt supply concerns

-Heavy government borrowing means a large amount of Treasury debt needs to be absorbed by investors.

-That can contribute to higher long-term yields, although recent analysis does not indicate that a sudden collapse in Treasury demand is the main driver of this particular move.

7. Oil/geopolitical risk

-Higher oil → inflation risk → tighter Fed → higher yields.

-Recent Treasury moves have been tracking oil closely.

Summary:

The 10Y rising above 5% doesn’t mean “recession.” Right now, the immediate signal is actually a market struggling with strong activity and persistent inflation while demanding more compensation for long-duration risk.
#10Yyields #Recession #Macroeconomics

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

@mrs_btc_ Yep. Fed can squeeze the money they print. Can’t squeeze Bitcoin.

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

#WEEK3 — Macro

Growth 🟢 resilient

Inflation 🔴 still elevated (oil >$100)

Rates 🔴 Fed +25bps → 3.75–4.00%, more possible

2Y/10Y 4.72% / 4.97% ↑ / ↑

Curve (10–2) +25bps 🟡 flatter

Credit 🟡 orderly, but costs rising

DXY 🟢 hawkish Fed support

Equities 🟡 S&P/Nasdaq up, Dow down

Gold 🟡 held near $4,383

Crypto 🟡 BTC resilient into week-end

Liquidity 🟡 policy tight, other demand offsetting

Macro read:

Growth remains resilient, but inflation is still the bigger problem. The Fed hiked 25 bps as oil remained elevated, pushing near-term rate expectations higher. The 2Y rose more than the 10Y, keeping the curve flatter.

But the interesting part was what didn’t happen: gold, Bitcoin and equities stayed relatively firm despite higher yields and a hawkish Fed. This is not a clean “higher rates = sell everything” tape. Different assets are being driven by different forces.

Possible reasons: resilient domestic demand still supporting risk; geopolitics/safe-haven bid under gold; residual liquidity/flows offsetting QT/tight policy; and positioning that was already short duration/risk after the reprice. We will watch whether the 2Y keeps leading - that decides if this resilience holds.

#FOMC #Fed #Globalmacro #Macroeconomics

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

@AlphaCapitalUK Can I?

[Alpha Capital Group @AlphaCapitalUK]

ʇunoɔɔɐ ǝǝɹɟ ɐ uᴉʍ llᴉʍ ǝʞᴉl + ʎldǝɹ oɥʍ ǝldoǝd 01

˙˙˙sɹnoɥ 42

ʞɔnl pooƃ

[Sandeep Manudhane @sandeep_PT]

Rich World's Moment of Reckoning

1. Yields on govt bonds rising steadily
2. Deficits not under control
3. Debt stock ballooning
4. Growth rates poor
5. Politics unable to tighten spending

Net result could be fiscal disasters for all. In such a scenario, Trump actually went and destabilised the oil and commodities markets, and catalysed geopolitical disasters in parallel.

#bonds #yields

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

26Aug-15Sept

2Y +50 bps,

10Y +42 bps.

Curve flattened ~8 bps as the front end repriced more aggressively toward tighter near-term policy amid renewed inflation/oil pressures, while the long end also moved higher.

FOMC day is here. The Fed decides today — 25bps hike or hold steady? Huge implications for global markets.
👀📊 #FOMC #Fed

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

If you want to dramatically improve your quality of life, learn to recover your attention quickly after something steals it. Social media arguments, stressful thoughts, minor inconveniences. Most of it is noise that steals hours to days of enjoyment. Breathe and let it go.

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

#WEEK2 — Macro

Growth: 🟢
Inflation: 🔴
Rates: 🔴
2Y / 10Y: 4.61% / 4.94% ↑ / ↑
Curve(10Y–2Y): +33 bps 🟡
Credit: 🟡
DXY: 🟢
Equities: 🟡
Crypto: 🟡
Liquidity: 🟡

Macro Read

Growth remains resilient, but inflation is becoming the bigger problem. CPI accelerated, pushing rate expectations higher and keeping the Fed restrictive. The 2Y rose faster than the 10Y, flattening the curve. DXY stayed supported, while equities and crypto remained volatile. Credit remained orderly, but tighter rate expectations are a headwind for liquidity and financial conditions.

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

Inflation isn’t just one number.

It’s a story.

The price level tells you where we are.

Inflation tells you how fast we’re moving.

The components tell you why.

Expectations tell you what comes next.

And the Fed + markets tell you why it matters.

Still learning. Still documenting. 🧠

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 “𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐆𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩”

I used to think inflation simply meant “things are getting expensive.”

It’s a little more complicated.

Inflation is the rate at which the general price level rises.

And once you understand that distinction, CPI, the Fed and even market reactions start making much more sense.

🧵

[Zhodan @MudToBloom]

𝐏𝐂𝐄

One more important piece:

CPI isn’t the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The Fed focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, particularly core PCE.

So when analyzing the Fed, don’t stop at CPI.

Ask:

CPI → PCE → Fed reaction function

Then look at what markets are pricing.