Multiples Capital

It is a Stock Picker's Market. Tweets Are Not Financial Advice

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Q2 2026 Investor Letter is out. DM if you would like a copy.

This past quarter felt a lot like running on a treadmill: plenty of activity, but we didn't actually go anywhere. Domestic indices were driven by an extremely narrow focus on AI and semiconductor names, largely at the expense of the rest of the economy.

However, with the Iran conflict moving to the backburner (notwithstanding the recent headlines) and oil prices cooling from their highs, I expect this extreme market concentration to finally break. As market breadth begins to widen, it creates a highly constructive environment for our multi-asset portfolio going forward.

YTD Sharpe Ratio: 1.20; since July 2022 Sharpe: 1.42

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Q1 2026 Investor Letter is out.
Despite the volatility following the outbreak of the Iran war, the portfolio delivered a 12.3% return compared to -4.6% for the S&P 500.

Key highlights include:
- Portfolio Resilience: Navigating the quarter with a modest 2.15% max monthly drawdown and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.80.
- Strategic Themes: Why energy security, the renewed defense mandate, and U.S. fiscal fragility remain my core focus areas.
- Risk Management: Tactically raising the cash position and maintaining active hedges as we navigate the ongoing uncertainty.

DM me if you would like a copy of the letter.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Two notable gold market updates out of China:

1. Retail Paper Gold Ban Takes Effect
Chinese banks permanently closed retail paper gold trading as of July 24th. Shifting retail capital away from leveraged derivatives and into 1:1 physical bullion should provide a far stronger structural floor for prices long term. https://t.co/mYOv6Frall
2. June Imports Hit a 2-Year High
China’s gold imports surged to approximately 173 metric tonnes in June, the highest monthly total since March 2024. Lower international prices sparked aggressive retail dip-buying and commercial bank restocking ahead of new licensing rules. https://t.co/vXioc3wjIG

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

So much for the deluge of Korean degenerates posts all over X ... Americans showing no one can out-degenerate us.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@erik_ywr That is cool, what is even more impressive is that their elevators are fitted/setup to interact with a robot!

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

What most bears miss about the US market. @erik_ywr is a fantastic thinker.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

OUT NOW- WHAT IF IT'S STILL EARLY? @erik_ywr on:

- why he expects S&P MELT-UP to 10,000 by 2027
- earnings growth ENORMOUS (bears are in denial)

Apple🔊https://t.co/1VuHaCFuvJ
Spotify📽️https://t.co/urmoT4RMH3
YouTube📽️https://t.co/lnQgo54fgP

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@JohnHuber72 Look up Feastibles (Mr Beast chocolate brand), one of fastest rise to multi hundred million dollar marker share capture in just few years

[waterboy @waterboystocks]

From Matt Levine's money stuff -- according to finance professor Baolian Wang, 12% of the profits of the S&P 500 last quarter came from $GOOG, $AMZN, and $NVDA marking up shares in private investments.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Fully expect gold to whipsaw more while market and fed debates on interest rates for a month or two, and then hopefully off to races in the mid to long term

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Gold looking attractive again. Prices have dipped into negative territory Year-to-Date. Not an investment advice

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@PurpleDrink_LLC US is no better

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

From the liquidation flows in gold to the supply-side dynamics impacting copper - Goldman Sachs' Head of Metals Trading, Tony Kim, breaks down the pricing action behind the main commodities. A macro update: 👇
https://t.co/R3qNWG8HW4

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@hkuppy Cathy Woods is at Goldman now?

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@ClarkSquareCap Obviously the Mexican investors don't understand the power of AI

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Defense theme intact

[Acyn @Acyn]

Trump on Taiwan: When you look at the odds, China is very, very powerful, big country. That's a very small island. Think of it, it's 59 miles away. We're 9500 miles away. That's a little bit of a difficult problem. Taiwan was developed because we had presidents that didn't know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

A subtle way for Buffett to message shareholders not to write off Greg Abel just because he isn't another Warren Buffett. Killing two birds with one stone... masterful Buffett.

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Greg Abel had Warren Buffett speak at start of the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway AGM.

Buffett spent most of it praising Tim Cook, seated a few rows behind next to John Ternus. Since 2016, Berkshire’s $35B initial investment officially grew to $185B.

“About 10 years ago, we made a commitment to move 10% of Berkshire Hathaway resources and turn it over to a person who was not well known at the time. We did that by roughly spending $35B to buy stock in Apple.

We turned that money over to Apple to essentially make Berkshire look good without any work by us…which is our preferred way of operating.

Ten years later, the $35B — counting dividends, realized appreciation and unrealized appreciation — has turned into $185B pretax. And I didn’t have to do a damn thing.

Our largest holding is still Apple [$60B+].

When Tim Cook went into the top position at Apple [in 2011], he succeeded a legend. Steve Jobs. Everyone in America knew his name. Not many knew Tim’s name.

Steve did these marvelous things, developing products and he had an untimely death. Everyone asked who would run the company. […]

How would you like to step in the shoes of Steve and come through with [Cook’s record]? It’s one of the miracles of American business management. Anyway, thank you Tim.”

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@AkberAliprime Hi AK, I DM'd you.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Q1 2026 Investor Letter is out.
Despite the volatility following the outbreak of the Iran war, the portfolio delivered a 12.3% return compared to -4.6% for the S&P 500.

Key highlights include:
- Portfolio Resilience: Navigating the quarter with a modest 2.15% max monthly drawdown and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.80.
- Strategic Themes: Why energy security, the renewed defense mandate, and U.S. fiscal fragility remain my core focus areas.
- Risk Management: Tactically raising the cash position and maintaining active hedges as we navigate the ongoing uncertainty.

DM me if you would like a copy of the letter.

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

2025 was a defining year for Multiples Capital. We delivered a 35.6% return with a 3.15 Sharpe Ratio, achieving high performance at half the volatility (2.49% std dev).

Success was driven by a good marriage of disciplined stock-picking and focusing on 5 core macro themes.

Our Year-End Letter is now available, featuring:
- A deep dive into 2025 performance drivers.
- The 2026 roadmap and where I am allocating.
- An introduction to our newest macro theme.

Please DM me if you’d like a copy of the letter. 🙏

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

@erik_ywr

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

If a regional "racino" is worth 9.4x, what is Bellagio and MGM Macao worth? $MGM

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Interesting to see the recent price action in $MGM, is the market finally waking up to the massive valuation gap?
​Trading at ~6.0x EV/EBITDAR (using standard rent multiples)
​Private Reality: The Northfield Park exit closed at a ~9.4x implied EBITDAR multiple
​Sector Anchor: Current buyout offers for $CZR setting a peer floor at ~9.5x.

Management is effectively shorting this spread, divesting regional assets at 9x+ and buying back it's own shares, outstanding shares down 50% over last 5 years.
#ubercannibal

[Multiples Capital @MultiplesCap]

Northfield Park "racino" exit
https://t.co/I5VbIeonzg