Multipolarity The Podcast

Charting the rise of a multipolar world order.
Podcast.
Hosted by @philippilk and @admcollingwood.
Produced by @gavhaynes

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Thank you @jimmycarr

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

This week, two audio essays.

@philippilk brings you The Escalation Ladder. Reflecting on the 50% chance of strikes into Europe sooner than you think.

@admcollingwood's Weaponised Interdependence examines the new structural shift in global power.

https://t.co/FAUU0ohj5o

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

What do we want?
@philippilk & @admcollingwood discussing Oreshnik missiles, US-Iran peace talks, and silicon chips!
When do we want it?
Now!
https://t.co/3p1j2wgTID

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

https://t.co/KA7ouitdVS

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Fantastically erudite comments section on our new Warwick Powell (@baoshaoshan ) article on the Subst@ck.

Powell proposes a mathematical tipping point beyond which one side of the Ukraine conflict will become exhausted.

He has also run the numbers.

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Read the full piece on Multipolarity's Substack.

https://t.co/m3fqbbFt3v

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Why does a janky Soviet watch predict US defeat in Iran?

In a Budapest antique market @philippilk bought a Soviet diving watch with a crown that looked like it was about to fall off. He objected. The seller told him it wasn’t wonky: it was designed that way…

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

During the Second World War, the US fielded the M3 Grease Gun, while Britain had the STEN. Both were ugly, cheap, and highly functional.

Then peacetime came, and Western militaries decided their weapons should look as good as they perform. The rest of the world never got that memo. And they've been winning ever since.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Why did the US lose the war in Iran?

In fact, we can tell this story with reference to a wonky watch from the Soviet Union and the eternal AK47 vs MI6 gun nerd debate.

Check out my essay on the @MultipolarPod Substack - which you should subscribe to! Link in comment. 🔗👇

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Japanese bond yield's gone up, Mexican birthrate's gone down, and Trump's gone to China.

@philippilk & @admcollingwood are here with your hot dose of new Multipolarity.

https://t.co/zqqIKgrizd

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

Folks, for more than two decades, China has been thinking about this problem, planning for it, wargaming scenarios. Have we?

Who is more vulnerable here?

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The Blob geopol narrative on Chinese vulnerability to Hormuz is overblown. We have said for weeks that it's cope. Now, the first data are arriving, and they support our view. An explainer for anyone to share when somebody makes the China argument.

🧵

[Multipolarity The Podcast @MultipolarPod]

At the time, 75-80% of China’s imported oil passed through Malacca; the strait was seen as a single point of failure. Since then, they've built stockpiles, diversified imports, changed their energy mix and built to protect its shipping lanes in its near abroad.