Muted Trader

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

For the first time ever in the history of @California_ISO, SP15 HL price cleared negative (-0.63 $)
Low gas price, mild weather, decent hydro generation, and abundant renewable oversupply which cant get exported due to NOB sitting at 0 rating.
#Caiso #Renewable #SP15 #RPS

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@PoweredbyEBCE (2/1) simple renewable curtailment shows at least the Caiso has a long way to be able to benefit fully from its renewable gens. I am not against being carbon-free (I think no one is), but better to see both sides of the story. CCAs like you are part of solutions! Thanks

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@PoweredbyEBCE (1/2) Of course in general, the Caiso or any ISOs will benefit from VRE but if the those renewable resource are well connected to the grid, and equipped with BESS. The Moss Landing BESS went off + several outages and the congestion is killing Bay Area the whole March and ongoing

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@FordneyEnergy @California_ISO Strong wind gens (new record) resulted in more curts, esp after 2/16, (major curts 16-21,24-27), but most importantly derate on P15 from 2/17 hugely limited flow of solar/wind S-->N & forced #Caiso to Economic - Local Curt to mitigate local congestion. (Look@ Key Statics Report)

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@cody_a_hill @California_ISO When you lose most of your imports on AC& line (~ 80%) and at the same time DC line can't sent any mw to Norcal (100% cut). Moreover, good size of batteries are out of service.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@BPBartholomew It is simply oversupply of green energy in belly which is cheap and batts charge (0 ghg), and lack of solar in ramping which no-green (aka thermal) imports shape the Gen-stack.
The ghg in the belly is due to base load gas generation (RMR mainly). Nothing weird in this graph.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

It seems #CPUC pulled out the #NEM3 voting from its meeting on 1/27!
#rooftop #caiso #solar (https://t.co/IFGtjTSRXL)

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

If you have not watched #CODAfilm, I really recommend it. Not energytwitter stuff of course !

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@judah47 Thanks, so we won't see the flip like 10/11 if I understood well and we get outright colder than normal.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@cody_a_hill @BPBartholomew Few things together, quite cloudy and less solar to shape the belly 4-6 gw less vs last week), Miguel congestion due to Suncrest outage in San Diego (crazy congestion that pulls SanDiego DLAP prices by ~29$ avg HL), and forced Palo outage that cuts the pv—>sp flow. Gas 🔥 rule

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@tau18analytics @agelston Ha ha i get it nowi guess lol

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@tau18analytics Could be but what I can justify the operator’s rationale. Definitely there are “other” things as you stated but I am not aware of those.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@3Sentinel4 yup

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

#CPUC anonymously increased #Aliso capacity to 41 bcf. It does not change the reliability that much but it may calm down a bit the citizens who all talked today to oppose the proposal. They also stated it would be to meet just this winter's demand.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

@3Sentinel4 Agreed but if you raise to 68, then you will need to answer many tough questions to many ppl in Cali. So they may even leave it untouched.

[Muted Trader @MutedTrader]

Key moment for gas & power market tomorrow on #CPUC decision for #Alisocanyon capacity adjustment. A radical move to increase it to 68 can murder the whole cal22 and fwd prices but seems most prob the number is 41 bcf. Everyone is anxious in in whole #WECC/#EIM. #caiso #cpuc #gas