@gregrieben@agnostoxxx Q: In short, a long bond purchased during 2016-2020 has lost half its value?
A: Long bonds bought near the 2020 bottom (@ 1.0โ1.5%) have lost about half of what was paid. Bonds bought in the 2016โ2021 window (@ 2โ2.5%), have lost 35โ45%.
@OwenGregorian "Residual confounding by socioeconomic status, smoking, overall diet, physical activity, sleep, and other lifestyle factors also cannot be ruled out." [OK, bury the junk science lede?]
@leevalueroach Not yet, but caught his podcast with Meb Faber (in late July). Because of his meticulous Pulitzer Prize-winning book 'Lords of Finance', it is on my must-read list.
You recently described how the long end could be cauterized on a 30-day program. Can the various institutions holding the long end survive mark-to-market losses of 90%+ on their holdings? If not, what is the more plausible political timeline and process to avoid sudden systemic shock?
@LukeGromen@Myrmikan "One month before the peak of one of the largest stock market manias the world had ever seen [2000], the Fed was scheming how to accelerate its money printing. The members of the Federal Reserve Board will not be free of it. They are human."