For those of you interested in full transparency, here is my entire list and day-by-day breakdown of what I bet and what line I got it at. I am officially 60 days into making picks and the results have been $6,358.00 profit for a $100 player.
Back on 4/23 (in an article) I elaborated on my statistical approach to baseball, which was founded on a theorem I postulated that goes as follows.
(ΣNB/4)/Runs ≤ 2%
where:
NB = TB+BB+IBB+HBP
Basically, the sum of all bases divided by 4 should equal the run total for the year.
As it stands today, here's how the numbers look...
58,253 Total Bases
13,343 Walks
1,648 HBPs
801 IBBs
=
74,045 Net Bases
74,045/4 = 18,511.25 Expected Runs
There have been 18,519 actual runs for an error of just 7.75 runs
Margin of error = 0.042%
Accuracy = 99.958%
@bdd4life@Cardinals@MLB@Yadimolina04 Honestly, I think his stuff looks fine. My guess is that he might just be tipping pitches or dealing with fatigue. Sometimes young pitchers take a bit to adjust to pitching later in the year.
Combined stats from those 4 starts...
19.2 IP, 33 H, 19 ER, 7 HR, 4 BB, 19 SO
Combined record of the opponents entering today is 187-223 (CLE, TOR, TB, KC)
Even more troubling is the fact he's gotten progressively worse in each successive outing. Worst 2 are both post-break.
.@JCLayfield: "The administration's done a great job in spurring this economy, that's already long in the tooth in this bull market, to revitalization."
@Rockies Don't get me wrong, I had you guys picked to win tonight (and last night) but ump really blew that called strike to end it. Still feel like the W was inevitable, but wish umps/commish put as much effort into getting calls right as they did with limiting mound visits.