Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸

Data Scientist + Politics • Numbers don’t lie, unless you stop paying attention. 🇺🇸

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) secured a narrow victory by delivering strong margins in heavily Hispanic areas, particularly Cuban-American neighborhoods, while limiting Republican losses in key non-Cuban Hispanic and predominantly white precincts.

As the maps show, Salazar outperformed Byron Donalds across most of FL-27 and Ashley Moody in most heavily Hispanic neighborhoods, including Little Havana, which has a significant non-Cuban Hispanic population.

With 124,528 votes—the highest total of any candidate in the three races analyzed in FL-27—Salazar received over 2,000 more votes than Donalds and 1,000 more than Moody, despite facing a well-known Democratic opponent.

Had FL-27 experienced a leftward shift comparable to those in neighboring FL-26 and FL-28, Salazar's 1,090-vote lead would likely have disappeared. Her performance underscores her strength as an individual candidate and her ability to outperform broader Republican trends in Florida's most hispanic congressional districts.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

VoteHub projects María Elvira Salazar to win the Florida U.S. House District 27 election.

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

With the recount behind us and our victory reaffirmed, the emotion of Election Night is still very much alive!

The energy, the excitement, and the incredible people who stood with us throughout this campaign. A night we will never forget!

To every volunteer, supporter, and voter who placed their trust in me: THANK YOU!

It was a hard-fought race, but we never lost sight of what matters most: the people of Florida’s 27th District.

And now, with the results confirmed, we move forward with renewed determination to serve our community and deliver for the families we represent.

God bless America! 🇺🇸

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

Against all odds, we prevailed! 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar

After months of hard work, more than 55,000 doors knocked, dozens of events across FL-27, and the tireless dedication of an incredible team of staff and volunteers, Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar has officially won reelection!

From Election Night through the recount, this was a hard-fought victory. I could not be prouder of what our team accomplished. In a year marked by a blue tsunami, we stood our ground, defied the odds, and delivered a victory when so many thought it was impossible.

It is truly a privilege to work for an incredible woman like María Elvira Salazar, whose courage, determination, and commitment to our community inspire us every day.

I also want to recognize someone very special, Ana Carbonell. Working alongside Ana has been one of the greatest privileges of this campaign. I have learned so much from her. She is a rare gem in politics today, exceptionally professional, ethical, hardworking, and someone whose experience and dedication are second to none.

This was undoubtedly one of the toughest campaigns we have faced, but we never gave up. To everyone who knocked on doors, made calls, attended events, and believed in us: thank you. This victory belongs to all of you.

Against all odds, we prevailed! 🇺🇸

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

@HialeahDems With 100% of the votes in, she is ahead by 1090 votes. If you don’t like the numbers, skip my post.

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) secured a narrow victory by delivering strong margins in heavily Hispanic areas, particularly Cuban-American neighborhoods, while limiting Republican losses in key non-Cuban Hispanic and predominantly white precincts.

As the maps show, Salazar outperformed Byron Donalds across most of FL-27 and Ashley Moody in most heavily Hispanic neighborhoods, including Little Havana, which has a significant non-Cuban Hispanic population.

With 124,528 votes—the highest total of any candidate in the three races analyzed in FL-27—Salazar received over 2,000 more votes than Donalds and 1,000 more than Moody, despite facing a well-known Democratic opponent.

Had FL-27 experienced a leftward shift comparable to those in neighboring FL-26 and FL-28, Salazar's 1,090-vote lead would likely have disappeared. Her performance underscores her strength as an individual candidate and her ability to outperform broader Republican trends in Florida's most hispanic congressional districts.

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

@DuncanThrownutz Key Biscayne is the red in the right. MES received 55.7%.

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) secured her reelection by outperforming the top of the ticket among Hispanic voters, despite facing a more recognizable opponent than those in neighboring districts FL-26 and FL-28 and nearly $3 million in Democratic spending against her.

While all three districts shifted to the left, FL-27 experienced the smallest shift, demonstrating Salazar’s ability to outperform the broader political environment. Had FL-27 shifted by margins comparable to FL-26 or FL-28, she would have lost the election.

[Dr. Vanessa Brito - 305 Data Girl @VanessaBritoMia]

FL-28 recorded the second-largest Democratic shift of any congressional district in Florida and the largest among Republican-held districts.

Comparing the 2024 presidential election margins with the 2026 congressional results, @PhilEhr’s performance represented an 18.25-percentage-point Democratic improvement, trailing only heavily Democratic FL-24 (@Ogilbert).

Despite a substantial Republican voter registration advantage, FL-28 outperformed nearly every district in the state, demonstrating the scale of Democratic gains in one of South Florida’s traditionally Republican strongholds.

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

MY STATEMENT REGARDING RECOUNT IN FL-27

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

Congratulations @MaElviraSalazar @MarioDBCamp @CarlosGimenezFL

You survived. You warned about immigration, tariffs, and the economy. Thank you for being a voice for FREEDOM at home and abroad in congress.

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

The trio of Cuban American republicans in Miami survive by a hair! Thanks be to God.

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

Keep it up. You're going to keep losing with this mentality and copouts.

By the way, Texas was a democrat state when it was 90% white and it was a republican state until yesterday....

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

FL-27, today is Election Day! 🇺🇸 Representing you and your family in the U.S. Congress has been the honor of my life.

As your congresswoman, I’ve brought $90 million back to our district for 47 projects, from flood prevention that helps lower flood insurance costs to quality healthcare for children and families, affordable housing, and investments in law enforcement to keep our neighborhoods safe.

In this Congress, we passed major housing reform, including my bill to help turn unused buildings into affordable apartments. We also delivered tax relief on tips and overtime, expanded the Child Tax Credit, and increased tax deductions for seniors.

With your vote, I’ll keep fighting for you and your family. Vote María Elvira Salazar, #23 on your ballot!

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

🎉Team María Elvira is taking over her account today to join so many of her constituents and friends in wishing our incredible Congresswoman a very HAPPY BIRTHDAY! ❤️🇺🇸

We are so proud to be part of #TeamSalazar and grateful for your leadership, dedication, and love for our community.

Happy Birthday, Congresswoman! May God bless you with many more wonderful years!

[Reidel Nabut 🇺🇸 @NabutReidel]

@MarcoAFrieri @AngieNixon And you are still considering voting for her. Wow!

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

Angie Nixon was asked a simple question: Is Cuba a dictatorship?

For our community, the answer should never be complicated.

And yet, my opponent is cheering her on.

He wants to go to Congress alongside the same socialist wing of his party that Miami knows all too well. 

I have never been confused about where I stand.

I have called communism and socialism by their name in Congress, and I will continue to do it.

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

If she talks like a communist and walks like a communist... she is a communist

[María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸 @MaElviraSalazar]

¡Gran y glorioso día para Venezuela! 🇻🇪

María Corina está de regreso en su tierra.

Mi reconocimiento al presidente Trump y al secretario Marco Rubio por ayudar a crear las condiciones para que Venezuela retome el camino hacia la democracia.

Hoy renace la esperanza.

¡Viva Venezuela libre!

[Carolina Castillo @CaroCastilloCC]

Best video you’ll see out of Miami today.
The leftist Dem candidate, Elliott Rodriguez, is NOT fooling this abuelita 🥰🤌🙌

“You guys are communists! You’re Democrat socialists”— Laughs sarcastically as she walks away from him🤣 REJECTED 💥

I LOVE her 😍👇 (on repeat🥳😜)

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

When Wedgewood first appeared, I reached out to their head pollster to try to learn more about them. We spoke on the phone for about 15 minutes. He told me he was a college student at Boston University who had previously worked with SoCal Strategies and had paid for some inexpensive polls out of pocket. He also mentioned that the other member of the team was involved in local Democratic politics in Ohio.

They struck me as nice kids with at least some understanding of polling, but obviously no professional experience. With that in mind, we assigned them a D grade and included their polling data on our site.

A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt. It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a hell of a lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this.