NazeeMoinian

PhD Iranian Studies. Adjunct Fellow Middle East institute. Master of International Relations SIPA, MA Political Science Columbia University. Farsi Eng. French

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

On the 46th anniversary of the revolution that unleashed political Islam, ousted a strong American ally, and changed the ME and the national security imperatives of western countries and Israel a simple thread as to what happened and why:

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

“The only thing that has ever worked is the strategy the West keeps abandoning halfway: strategic, long-term deterrence and pressure that would [empower] Iranians to take their country back, denies the regime resources, legitimacy and the belief that aggression will be rewarded.”

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

A ceasefire is not peace, not with this regime.

There is no version of this that ends with Islamic Republic persuaded. The instability caused by this regime doesn't flow from a grievance a concession can resolve but flows from the nature of the regime itself, a theocracy that cannot survive on its own record and so manufactures legitimacy from confrontation.

The only thing that has ever worked is the strategy the West keeps abandoning halfway: strategic, long-term deterrence and pressure that would enable the Iranian people to take their country back, denies the regime resources, legitimacy, and the belief that aggression will be rewarded.

The choice was never between confrontation and peace. It is between pressure now and far greater pain later, paid, as always, by everyone except the men in Tehran who manufacture it.

Continue on this path, and they'll close Bab al-Mandab next.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

Once a senior CNN journalist described the regime elite as “Bache Por-roo” loosely translated from Farsi as a bully who crosses the line and expects to be applauded.

There’s applause. But it’s from regime base and its proxies. 90% of Iranians are hoping Israel will attack Iran.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

Is @POTUS trolling the regime by suggesting that he will make “a good deal” and meet with Khamenei Jr?

@TheStoryFNC I suggested that it’s better if the Iranians met him first, since he still hasn’t made a public appearance!

Trump is well aware of regime’s fragility. He’s stalling the talks to keep the blockade and conduct “defensive” operations.

In using Tehran’s playbook against itself—delay, deflect, declare victory—he is pushing for regime’s strategic patience to run out.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

@StateDept has released a video in Farsi directly to the Iranian people praising them extensively for their contribution to high culture, arts and sciences. Then asks, “What has kept Iran back?”
“The regime.”

To underscore this point here are a few data points from 2020 census of Iranian-Americans:

* 60% have a bachelor degree or higher. The average for immigrants is 33%.

* 1 in 4 have an advanced grad degree, #1 in all immigrant groups.

* 50% have household income over $100K. US median household income is $67,500.

* 22% are self employed in “high value skills, medicine, law, tech, real estate development, etc.”

Iranians in Iran have similar or higher education status but their dreams of achieving success is dashed by corruption, inflation, economic mismanagement, social repression and costly proxy wars.

As @tomfriedman had written on Dec 9, 2007 Iranians flourish everywhere but in their own country.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

@MorganOrtagus uplifting and correct analysis that despite all the doomsday reporting that Tehran has the upper hand, “[the] manicured façade of strength and resilience crumbles” once we look closely at the facts and listen to Iranians themselves.

https://t.co/Dz16MWK7sv

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

Is it better to be loved or feared?
Tehran has decided on the latter, ensuring that Iranians and neighbouring countries live in a constant dread of random deadly attacks.
If the regime survives this war it’s the only way it can continue to survive. https://t.co/hHaNnymHk4

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

6. By reviving CENTO with Gulf States, the US can diplomatically AND militarily isolate the regime in Iran.

Tehran may withstand US naval power with asymmetric warfare for now. But it cannot survive permanent pressure on its oil hubs and export facilities.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

6. By reviving CENTO with Gulf States, the US can diplomatically AND militarily isolate the regime in Iran.

Tehran may withstand US naval power with asymmetric warfare for now. But it cannot survive permanent pressure on its oil hubs and export facilities.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

With or without a deal it’s time to formalize a NATO style security alliance among Gulf states to protect SOH from the tyranny of the Islamic Regime.

This idea is not new. In 1959 the Shah petitioned Eisenhower to protect Iran and the Gulf from increasing Soviet influence ⬇️

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

5. The Shah was prescient in foreseeing the threat of emerging Marxist/Islamist ideologies which he called “the marriage of red and black.”

67 years later we are still grappling with Gulf insecurity and now Islamic regime empowered by Russia and China and Axis of Aggression.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

@POTUS was right to ask Gulf states and China to share the cost of keeping SOH open and safe.

Deterrence can be established by keeping 1 CSG and 12 ships at the cost of $7-$9 billion/year shared by major suppliers and purchasers.

Keep an eye on Iran. It’s well worth the cost.

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

CENTCOM spox Capt Tim Hawkins to Fox: “U.S. forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.”

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

Does it really matter if #Khamenei son is alive?

No it doesn’t.

The elimination of key figures dilutes the system but doesn’t destroy it.

Since the Iran-Iraq war and the rise of IRGC, Tehran has operated on two prongs: Islamism and militarism.

And both are “overseen” by Mahdism; the belief that the last Imam Mahdi will return to save the believers, ie regime operators.

Iran will be a menace as long as it’s a theocratic state.

[Jennifer Jacobs @JenniferJJacobs]

Scoop via @CBSNews: U.S. intelligence shows that Iran's supreme leader is effectively holed up in an undisclosed location with little access to the outside world and is only reached by a labyrinth of couriers, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 
https://t.co/U1QGhoOrxP

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

@LindseyGrahamSC @marcthiessen We don’t have any control over perceptions. We do however have the power to defang the Islamic regime by removing both their intentions and capabilities.
The window is closing.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

For decades Republicans blasted Carter for having “lost Iran.”
His indecisive approach towards the nascent Islamic regime, they argued, had empowered Khomeini and cemented his power.

@POTUS is well aware of Carter’s legacy. It’s unlikely that he will lose Iran again. Stay tuned

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

In the west the formal Shia doctrine of Taqiyya has received much more attention than Mahdaviyat or Mahdism.
But Mahdism is more explanatory of the intransigence of regime negotiators.

It not only radicalizes the Shia youth, it also removes accountability from the regime leaders by placing the final judgment at the feet of Imam Mahdi.

And he will only appear when infidels [West, now Sunnis] has cast darkness and doom on believers.

This mindset, popularized by Ahmadinejad, is sitting at the tables in Geneva or Islamabad. It is why negotiations don’t get anywhere.

Iranians dig in their heels bc even if they lose they have won.

[NazeeMoinian @NazeeMoinian]

@JasonMBrodsky Iran is the land of the most beautiful poetry and prose. But the Islamic regime has normalised bad analogies and street language in high offices.

In 2006 Ahmadinejad similarly said it’s like “giving chocolate or walnuts [!!] to a kid to bribe him to give away his best toy.”