Just a FYI, I don't go deep into these matchups or trends when making my plays. I simply attack games that have high usage players out. The lines often don't move properly to account for this. I also don't feel the need to make a high volume of bets just for action. 1/2
@MicahhParsons11 This hits so hard as I'm currently at the vet, with the most likely outcome being that I'm gonna have to put down my 12 year old American Bulldog
#NBA 11/29/22 #PropPlay #1 of the day.
Mann O22.5 PRA (-125) 1u
With Wall, Leonard and George out, Mann is averaging 31% over the line per 36 and is line for extended minutes. He also seems to be blowout proof as he played blowout minutes last week.
Tilting hard. 13 points in 1st half and bagels 11 minute rotation in the 3rd quarter. Gonna have a sweat when it looked like we were gonna cruise past.
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropPlay #3 of the day. I'm calling this the #BackUpTheBrinksTruck play of the day.
Melton O17.5 Points (-108) 2u
Wiith the Philly big 3 out, Melton averages 23.5 points. They moved the line 1 point, but we are still looking at 35% projection O the line
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropPlay #1 of the day.
Herro O26.5 PR (-121) .5u
Herro is in, but is he healthy? I'm not sure and that's why I'm only going .5u here even though we are showing a projection 23.5% over the line
In case I'm unable to get out an official tweet, here are some plays I'm waiting on news and lines. As always, 1st number is my projection and 2nd is max number we want to bet. These only apply if the injured players are out.
Dictate a blowout. I still have my worries and even though we are seeing a projection that clears 28% over the line, I'm going to play it safe with a .5u play.
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropPlay #1 of the day.
Clarkson O21.5 points (-108) .5u
With Conley off the court, Clarkson is projecting for 27.5 for the 40 minutes he should be on the court. I do have a slight worry that it blows out very the Warriors even though the line doesn't 1/2
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropPlay #2 of the day.
Nurkic O14.5 points (-129) 1u
With Lillard out, Nurkic is averaging 27.5% over this season. While the books have caught up on the rebounds, we still have a good edge on points.
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropPlay #3 of the day. I'm calling this the #BackUpTheBrinksTruck play of the day.
Melton O17.5 Points (-108) 2u
Wiith the Philly big 3 out, Melton averages 23.5 points. They moved the line 1 point, but we are still looking at 35% projection O the line
#NBA 11/25/22 #PropBet#1stLook
My 1st look in photo below. The 3 green check marks are plays that are good to go and I'll do full writeups in a bit. The other plays as usual are waiting on news and lines but as always the 2nd number is what we want or lower to pull the trigger.
7 miserable first half minutes. I almost didn't pull the trigger on this because he's been out for a considerable time. Luckily my 2 other larger bets already went over!
#NBA 11/23/22 #PropPlay #3 of the day.
Herro O25.5 PR (-120) .5u
Herro averages 28% over this line with Butler out. Because he's been out himself, I'm taking the conservative route and only betting a .5u even though the numbers dictate a full unit bet.