SPCX
Not really interested in the earnings today, but I will monitor if it has the strength to finally break and expand above a range, showing the first signs of accumulation to position long.
Until ranges are broken below, there is zero interest from my side.
$BTC strong break of this area and we probably go to 73k but this is a pretty hard area to crack. PoC over the entire range and expecting some volatility around here. Probably not the best place to fire into new positions unless you're confident the breakout is coming
$BTC update
Still in my short for now.
Weekend flows are always a bit sketchy, so here’s what I’m seeing:
Structurally, my HTF bearish sequence is still active. The short-term bullish sequence has already completed, meaning lower target levels remain valid as long as the B-point doesn’t get taken. From a structural perspective, a correction here would actually be healthy before any sustainable move into higher liquidity.
What keeps me cautious is the foundation of this rally. We barely cleared liquidity below us, while most of the move higher came from short covering on perps plus some spot contribution triggering a lot of positioning. OI gradually declined throughout the rally, participation kept fading, and volume has been decreasing as well. We did see some spot involvement, but overall this move has been driven more by positioning than fresh demand.
Liquidity still heavily favors the downside, with plenty left below. Weekend order books are thin, which makes moves less reliable, but we’re now pushing into a denser passive ask wall that could cap price for now.
The one thing I don’t like for my short is that we’re currently accepting above the range POC and the 4H resistance. Structurally, that favors continuation higher if acceptance continues.
I’m still holding the short because the move looks increasingly exhausted, but if we break the local highs again, I’ll step aside. The rally stands on shaky foundations, yet weekend flows can ignore weak fundamentals longer than expected. I’ll stay reactive.