Negative Gamma

How can you not be romantic about baseball?

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

Not only do US taxpayers pay for destroying Lebanon, they also get to pay to rebuild it.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. State Department: Washington has provided Lebanon with immediate humanitarian aid of $100 million in coordination with the United Nations, and the Pentagon is prepared to compensate the Lebanese army with more than $30 million to support achieving lasting peace

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

They want $300bn too

[Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson]

The Iran war seems to be ending, along with our uncritical support for Israel, and not a moment too soon. No wonder the neocons are hysterical.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

$300 billion is 5 X as much as Congress spends on our roads & bridges annually. I’m tired of winning.

The U.S.A. “undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of” Iran.

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

What a decisive US victory...

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: US officials have now confirmed in a briefing that Iran will get full access to a total of $100 billion in frozen funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund, both included in the deal with implementation now underway, per WSJ.

More than $150 billion of the fund has already been committed, directly contradicting Trump's claims that the US would not contribute to the $300 billion fund, per Reuters.

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

Again, the official MoU has not been announced, but Iran HAS released what they believe THEY are agreeing to:

TL;DR version: Iran is not agreeing to anything that wasn't already agreed in JCPOA, but if USA will give them $12bn cash up front, they are willing to attend a 60-day series of meetings where they may continue NOT to agree to anything that wasn't already agreed in the JCPOA.

Meanwhile, the Strait will re-open under IRANIAN CONTROL, including "service fees", which are tolls rebranded with a word other than "toll" as a courtesly to allow USA to sell "toll-free" to the American people as if something had been accomplished here.

NO CONCESSION OF ANY KIND has been made on the core issue of Iran's 441kg of near-weapons grade Uranium, which they have NOT agreed to give up or down-blend. They've only agreed to entertain a conversation about USA's desire to see it downblended. For $12bn up front, just to have that conversation.

The art of the deal...

cc: @Rory_Johnston @CommodMkt

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

There is no perspective view one can take that says the US won the war against Iran and accomplished its objectives.

[Carlos Abadi @NewSamawal]

The US secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, three diplomatic officials now confirm.

This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices.
https://t.co/xDCmqWLT3B

[Chris Menahan 🇺🇸 @infolibnews]

Mark Levin seeks to undermine Trump's deal with Iran by insisting it should be a "treaty" that must be approved by two-thirds of the Senate.

(Trump can launch the war without Congress but can't end it without them, according to Levin.)

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

We can strengthen our chances of this deal holding by cutting all military/intel assistance to Israel, they took every opportunity to tank this deal & will likely do so again unless we take action.

We should also quietly get our troops out of the bases in the Gulf that can be reached by Iran. This ensures Iranian hardliners can’t strike us to drag us back into the fight.

Take away every factor that we can control that could force us back into the war on Israel or Iran’s terms.

Set all conditions that we can control in our favor.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

This is the key:

Iran took down a US Apache helicopter worth $40 million with a $20k Shaheed drone.

2000 to 1 cost exchange ratio

Unsustainable even with 0 fatalities

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

Iran ‘agreed’ not to develop nuclear weapons in 2003 and consistently self-enforced that position until now. This commitment is exactly why they were negotiating with this administration before the war.

That mandate came from the former Supreme Leader, who we killed—paving the way for more aggressive hardliners to seize power. Now, they may sprint to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon, turning our own war propaganda into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

Pray for our troops under fire in the Middle East. We need to pull them out immediately before more are hurt or killed.

Our bases & ships within range of the Iranians are strategic liabilities, not assets, and their presence is giving Iran the ability to restart the war on their terms.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

@MattWalshBlog I hope you get to keep your job after this post.

[Andrew Day @AKDay89]

This relationship has become an unmitigated disaster and humiliation for our country. We simply have to tell Israel to get lost, go fight your wars without our support, or better yet, learn to live in your own region.

This nightmare on its current trajectory will never end.

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

AIPAC was mispelled as 'Congress'

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: Congress advances plan to bring the U.S. and Israeli militaries "closer than ever" through joint weapons development & technology.

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

Was there ever a time when a central banker observed inflation less persistent than expected?

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Fed’s Goolsbee said energy inflation has shown greater persistence than expected, CNBC reported.

[MW4Liberty @MW4Liberty]

According to Trump, the man on the left (visiting Disney by himself holding a princess wand) is MAGA, and the guy on the right is the "worst congressman in history"...

[Grok @grok]

@mandyarthur **Graham voted with Biden's positions >50% of the time in 2023 (mostly nominations, per 538 data). Massie voted with him only 1.8% during the 117th Congress (per FiveThirtyEight/Wikipedia).**

Trump did endorse Graham for his 2026 re-election.

[Negative Gamma @Neg_Gamma]

Everything is fine

[Leyla @LeylaKuni]

The most demoralizing chart you will see today

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

I am 95% done with a deal to buy a new house. The remaining 5% of negotiations are focused on the price and whether the owners are actually willing to sell