Lance Lambert

Analyzing the housing market through a local lens 🏡 📊

CEO of ResiClub (@ResiClub_HQ). Subscribe to ResiClub's housing market research 👇

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Thank you to everyone who provided commentary 🏡

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Real estate agents/builders/investors/buyers/sellers:

What are you seeing in your local housing market right now? 🏡

Please note your market.

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

1. Average/median list prices and average/median sales prices struggle to account for mix shift—esp in a market where the volume has shifted. That’s why I lean into analysis that does a better job accounting for mix.

2. If you smooth the data you just posted—and accounting for seasonality—it shows the market has been/is passing through a correction

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

A look at the accelerated correction in the McKinney, Celina, Sherman areas in the Dallas area housing market

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Among Florida metro areas, these 7 have seen home prices fall the most since their 2022 peak:

1. Punta Gorda, FL -> -24.5%
2. Cape Coral, FL -> -19.1%
3. North Port, FL -> -17.0%
4.Naples, FL-> -11.7%
5. Lakeland, FL -> -8.7%
6. Sebastian, FL -> -8.4%
7. Tampa, FL -> -8.4%

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

@KenJonesFotos Those are two separate builders.

KB Home was originally Kaufman and Broad. The builder changed its name to KB Home in 2001.

K. Hovnanian is a completely different homebuilder—it's the brand name used by Hovnanian Enterprises.

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

A KB Home new-build, still in the framing stage in Travis County, TX, collapsed under 50–70 mph gusts on Thursday

Two framers were caught under the falling structure. One passed away, according to KXAN Austin

Link: https://t.co/sFwUj1bWot

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

KB Home's response to KXAN:

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Some of the titles of housing leaders who have purchased ResiDay 2026 tickets over the past 48 hours:

- VP of Homebuilder Finance at a publicly traded bank
- Regional VP of land at NVR, Inc.
- Director of Land Acquisition for a group based in FL
- Chief Product Officer of a construction proptech
- Managing Director at Bank of America
- Senior Associate at a Southeast-based land brokerage
- Division president at a top 100 homebuilder

@ResiClub_HQ is hosting ResiDay 2026 on Friday, November 6th, in New York City.

Early Bird I pricing ends on Monday.

Event details here: https://t.co/27z16Otiuc

You can reserve your ticket here: https://t.co/AvbVHAXVUU

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

According to Moody's Analytics model, Sherman, TX micro area (Grayson County, TX) still has much of its Pandemic Housing Boom froth (although its current correction will accelerate that froth blow off)

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

These are FL metro and micro areas.

Due to chart spacing, the full metro name isn't there. Sarasota and Bradenton are in the North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton Metropolitan Statistical Area (which is call the North Port, FL metro above).

Punta Gorda, FL metro is all of Charlotte County, FL = 222K residents.

The Wauchula micro area is 25K ppl (usually I leave it off—but for this chart I left it on).

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Florida’s housing market corrections continue to lose intensity—see the data across the state

While softness—and even outright weakness—remains in parts of FL, the intensity of the correction and recalibration process there has been waning throughout 2026

via @ResiClub_HQ

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResiClub_HQ]

Bigger booms. Bigger busts.

That's Florida housing markets in a nutshell.

BLUE LINES = Year-over-year single-family home price shift across FL metros

YELLOW LINE = Year-over-year nationally aggregated U.S. home prices

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

@TonyMon70374123 @ResiClub_HQ Today's analysis looks at FL MSAs—based on commuting patterns, Fort Lauderdale gets rolled up into the Miami, FL MSA

Below is a quick screenshot showing ZIP level YoY home price shifts across the area

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

@PaulIlyinsky561 @ResiClub_HQ These are metro/micro areas.

Melbourne and Cocoa are part of the Palm Bay MSA

Vero Beach is part of the Sebastian MSA

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

@FinzZombie @ResiClub_HQ Scroll down to the second tweet in the thread

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.76%

Same day last year: 6.50%

----------------
10-year treasury yield: 4.73%
Spread today: 203 bps

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

@SuburbanBourbo2 @ResiClub_HQ FL & TX (NC, SC, GA, AZ too) will always get a bit outsized share of my coverage given that they're core homebuilding markets / long-term population growth markets

That said, in my ResiClub reports, (in particular PRO ones), I share coverage for markets all across the country

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

The softest of the major Midwestern markets right now: Indy

Pricing wise, Indianapolis' aggregate metro housing market is amid a period of sideways movement

+1.7% YoY between July '24 to July '25
+1.0% YoY between July '25 to July '26

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Yes.

North Port, FL metro above is the North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota Metropolitan Statistical Area