Nick Sakys

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[Nick Sakys @NickSakys]

🇨🇴 the Colombia presidential market is pricing this completely wrong..

the market has De la Espriella at 48%.. Cepeda at 41%..

and yet Cepeda leads EVERY major poll by 15-20 points..

Invamer. Génesis Crea. Guarumo. AtlasIntel. CNC. five different pollsters. same result every time.

here's what the market is missing 🧵

head-to-head runoff polling shows Cepeda beating De la Espriella 54.6% to 42.6%..

a 12-point margin.. completely ignored by the current 48/41 coin flip pricing..

the right is cannibalizing itself..

De la Espriella publicly attacked Valencia.. "Dear Paloma, the campaign is not for little games"..

Uribe — the most powerful figure in Colombian right-wing politics — explicitly refused to endorse De la Espriella.. without his blessing.. Uribista voters abstain.. not consolidate..

and De la Espriella's platform threatens millions of Colombians directly..

Petro hiked the minimum wage 23% in December 2025.. the largest increase in decades..

650,000 new jobs created in the last 12 months.. 369,000 in public sector alone..

De la Espriella promises to shrink the state by 40%..

those are real people.. with real paychecks.. voting to protect them..

this is 2022 all over again..

left-wing senator.. vs far-right outsider.. Petro won that race..

Colombian voters chose wage security over change agents then.. they'll do it again..

the primary exit target isn't June 21..

it's May 31 first round night.. when Cepeda leads at 35-44% and no one hits 50%..

market immediately reprices Cepeda from 42 cents to 60+ cents overnight..

you don't need to wait for the runoff.. the first round result IS the trade..

Cepeda YES. 41%. 12 days. 🎯

@oregonblock prediction market team

[Nick Sakys @NickSakys]

🗳️ the Louisiana Senate market doesn't understand what's about to happen on May 16th

Trump endorsed Julia Letlow. the governor endorsed her. she's raised $8M.

the market has her at 58%.

the most recent independent poll has her LOSING.

Emerson College. April 26th.
Fleming: 28%
Letlow: 27%
Cassidy: 21%
Undecided: 22%

that's a dead heat. not a 58% candidate.

here's the part the market is missing 🧵

Louisiana requires 50%+1 to win outright.

with three candidates splitting the vote, nobody gets there. this race goes to a June runoff.

the primary is May 16th. 10 days away.

the moment no one hits 50%.. Fleming reprices from 37 cents to 50/50. overnight. you don't need to wait until June.

the runoff announcement IS the trade.

and before you say "the runoff is already priced in" — it isn't.

58% on Letlow means the market thinks she wins the WHOLE nomination. that requires her to win the runoff too.

against a candidate with better favorables. Cassidy's consolidated voters. and 6 more weeks of attack ads dominating Louisiana airwaves.

that's not priced in at 58%.

now let's talk about why Letlow is weaker than the market thinks.

ads are running across Louisiana right now attacking her for her time as a professor at UL Monroe — where she championed DEI initiatives and called herself a "progressive leader."

in a deep red Republican primary. in Louisiana. that's a problem.

Fleming is the opposite. Navy veteran. physician. four terms in Congress. served in the Trump administration. helped found the House Freedom Caucus.

he is the traditional Louisiana Republican senator. Letlow is not.

Fleming: 42% favorable. only 15% unfavorable.
Letlow: 40% favorable. 31% unfavorable.

and in the runoff? Cassidy's 20% of anti-MAGA voters have one place to go. it's not the Trump-endorsed candidate who made their guy the villain.

oh and Letlow has 210 STOCK Act violations worth up to $3.3M. hiding her financial disclosure until August 13th. conveniently after both rounds of voting.

6 more weeks of that as the entire story in a two-person race.

the market is pricing the endorsement like the race is over.

it isn't.

Fleming YES. 37 cents. 10 days. 🎯

shoutout @oregonblock prediction market team

[Nick Sakys @NickSakys]

Weeks 1-5
@jon_eagle @JoeBushman5

https://t.co/Bka73SZ8XU

[Nick Sakys @NickSakys]

https://t.co/AJckaUkXB3
Space Needle Shootout 1/28 - 1/29
@BQuinnQB @BrandonHuffman @PrepRedzoneOR @mvp7on7 @jon_eagle @westlinn_fb

[MVP Elite Football @mvp7on7]

Great 1st day of camp.
Day 1’s MVP’s

Top QB: @NickSakys
Top WR: @CadenNegra2024
Top DB: @landonhodges8
Top Newcomer & Overall Performer:
@Haydenrgeorge11

#WeReloaded

[Nick Sakys @NickSakys]

@volley_high @QBHitList Thank you very much Mr. Tawa. Coach Bell got me in touch with Tim last year and he gave me some tips and wrote me a great letter 🦁 I very much appreciate it.