NIHIL PERDITI

Derivatives Trader | 2022 | Nothing is investment advice

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@Wordsofrizdom These are small cap strategies with floats of less then 50m typically. Why share this information in a pool of small players unless there is virtually no edge left in these strategies.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@BillAckman If the vehicles objectives are long term and all publicly traded assets, why would I not just copy the investments disclosed each quarter and avoid the fee? Struggling to understand the pull of $PSUS

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@TheShortBear Tail risks are rising at a monumental rate

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@VolatilityQ Unique boozer to serve Murphy’s in UK

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@nntaleb What inspired you to write the paper? When did you first think of this idea to the point you believed a paper was justified/required to explain it?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@BrianLeeTrades Why was this instrument a better expression of your idea then $GC futures instrument?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@sspencer_smb What timeframe pivots are you using?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

Scenario:
- Market front runs Hassett as chair with expectation of multiple cuts in coming months which also do come true.
- Additional break throughs in AI similar to Gemini 3. More investment commitments of TPUs/GPUs increasing sector capitalisation.
- By 2026 mid first quarter Nasdaq is up an additional 15% from ATHs.
- Final Catalyst: a story builds of a technological breakthrough from AI that validates all prior investment (increase in Nasdaq 8-10%)
- By Q3 2026 realisation that story is wildly exaggerated and doesn't materialise, Nasdaq drops +30% and returns to 2025 open.
- Additional triggers: Failed auctions on LT Bonds, significant US housing refinancing on higher rates, Private credit fraud.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Kevin Hassett is now President Trump's top choice to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@MikeZaccardi More to go Mike.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@nntaleb Tail risk scenario:
The U.S. economy is experiencing subclinical deterioration—rising layoffs, eroding real incomes, and depleted household buffers—masked by a concentrated AI investment boom that has propped up headline growth and equity indices.
Over the next six months, a final parabolic surge in AI-related equities drives major indices 20–30% higher on sustained capex and earnings momentum. When monetization lags and growth disappoints, the market suffers a 25–35% correction, tipping the economy into recession.
The Fed responds with aggressive rate cuts, but with public debt at $38 trillion and annual deficits near 6% of GDP, Treasury auctions fail at offered yields. Bond vigilantes impose a term premium shock, pushing 10-year yields 150–250 bps higher despite Fed easing.
Monetary policy loses traction; the Treasury is forced into pro-cyclical fiscal consolidation to regain market access. The result: stagflationary recession with constrained policy levers, as the U.S. confronts the outer limits of debt-funded growth.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

The Yen ($6J) is nearing 36 year lows where we have seen the central bank of Japan intervene twice in the last 15 months.
July 2024: Suspected FX buying and 0.25% rate hike.
Jan 2025: Additional 0.25% rate hike.

Is a reversal imminent or will purchasing power continue to erode?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

October 2025

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

How does history help us understand what happens next with Gold $GC.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

$GC - Gold
Related events in October:
10/4 - Sanae Takaichi announced president in Japan, yen depreciates by +3%.
10/13 - BoA raise 2026 gold target to $5k
10/16 - Footage of people queuing for gold
10/17 - HSBC raise 2026 gold target to $5k
10/20 - Spot gold diverges from miners

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@SpaceX @grok what are the objectives of this specific launch?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@VolatilityQ Tell'em to get a job in sainsburys, start contributing to society.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@VolatilityQ Fartcoin at support now, sub $.75 I’d question my thesis as long as we hold, $3-4 and beyond very viable.

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@EternaLEnVy1991 $1k for the retard candle is good value

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@VolatilityQ Might I inquire Sir, will you be exiting your longs?

[NIHIL PERDITI @Nihil_perditi]

@PrimeTrading_ Crude oil $62 to $78 in 6 trading days. Net impact on US equities? Less then -1%. Truly remarkable.