Noble Francis

Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housing.

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

We finally have the official house building starts & completions data for 2026 Q2 from MHCLG.

There were 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG. (1/n)

#ukhousing #ukconstruction

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@Victoria_Spratt 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG.

Completions in 2026 Q2 were 3.4% lower than in Q1, 1.5% higher than a year ago & 27.3% lower than at the 2021 peak as house building continues its downward trend.

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

... excluding distortions, starts & completions are likely to fall in 2026 H2 & potentially 2027 H1 due to falls in mortgage approvals & forward sales, plus further rises in construction, financing & government's extra costs on house building. (11/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

We finally have the official house building starts & completions data for 2026 Q2 from MHCLG.

There were 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG. (1/n)

#ukhousing #ukconstruction

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

... then this would just reflect developers bringing forward starts to build out later, dependent on demand. The broader picture is that in Q2 starts remained 33.3% lower than the recent peak (excluding that artificial spike in 2023 Q2) &... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@mtpennycook 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG.

Completions in 2026 Q2 were 3.4% lower than in Q1, 1.5% higher than a year ago & 27.3% lower than at the 2021 peak as house building continues its downward trend.

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@anukewithouttac Yes, that makes sense. We will have to be clearer on that when we explain the Section 106 issues in forecasts and presentations etc. Thanks

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

Thread: The government's panaceas for house building (easing planning, 'New Towns' & the Social and Affordable Homes Programme) will take a long time to have a significant effect. Meanwhile, over 80% of house building is still private housing... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

[Vicky Spratt @Victoria_Spratt]

The siren call of using tax payers’ money to boost a housing market which is currently coming down (possibly crashing and certainly readjusting) needs to be heard with very critical ears

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@anukewithouttac Yes, the developers I’d dealt with had said that saying quality was the issue was more likely an excuse given their financial constraints and rising costs on their existing stock

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@anukewithouttac Interesting thanks. I’ll check into that. The housing associations I’d dealt with (primarily London, South East and East of England) had said it was the affordable ones that were the issue but I’ll check into it again

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@anukewithouttac … basic living conditions (e.g. mould and leaks, particularly in light of Awaab’s law), fire safety remediation and decarbonisation, which is increasingly expensive, they’re not focused on adding to their stock through Section 106 affordable units that may need work on later.

[Noble Francis @NobleFrancis]

@anukewithouttac Some housing associations say that they’re not taking them as they’re concerned about the quality of them but majority of the issue is that they’re are financially constrained & focused more on issues with their existing stock such as…