It's unbelievable how much reality differs from people's believes. Collecting and analysing data for each phenomenon always gives a completely opposite result.
$APLD Was carefully watching this stock for a potential short trap. That happened eventually, but I didn't trade it.
I was tempted to enter right at the bottom of the circled area (at $4.35 or slightly higher), risking $4.34. Missed huge R/R.
For a period I thought I had to find a holy grail, namely a setup which would make me money consistently everyday.
But then I began to realise that certain types of action or setups happen only with specific market conditions.
As of today I think that trading stocks takes quite a big amount of experience + knowledge. But all of that should come down to simpler reasoning when making up a trading plan.
Was looking at $HUDI in the morning and planned to get in over $4.5. I didn't have much conviction though as I was still gauging the market sentiment.
I lost interest in it after that strong rejection of my level.
Missed the later move but at least it proved my idea right.
Another action I spotted where shorts got trapped. Paper traded this and got in at $0.215, sold half position at $0.26. Unfortunately it didn't hit my final target which was at $0.29ish.
This bear market has taught us a lot about approaches to the market and gave me some epiphanies as well.
The main one:
If I want to play the long term game, there is one approach, the value investing based after Graham, Buffett, Sleep, Spier, Greenblatt, Lu, Einhorn, Smith and more.
The idea that an O’Neill approach, breakout approach, momentum or high growth approach cuts it is plain and simple wrong.
I got to see all these approaches fail miserably over the past years.
Don’t get me wrong, for most it will cut it during a bull market or even for small accounts during resting periods of a bear market.
When it comes to hundreds or more millions, basically when you want to be part of the biggest league, the only approach left apart from some prodigies within VC and Quant is value investing.
The end game is about accurately forecasting how much cash you get back from your investment minus cost of cash via cost of cash(rates mostly) to cover your initial investment and more.