Not A Lock

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Bet of the day.

I like Penn State -2.5 at Northwestern.

My model clears that exact number about 68% of the time. My model has Penn State winning by about 8 or 9 points, so laying just 2.5 is the short number.

I pulled the Prem grades: Penn State 95.3 overall and 92.1 on defense (coverage 94.0). Northwestern sits at 81.7 overall and 70.0 on defense (coverage 74.4). Offense snap totals sit at Penn State 270 and Northwestern 192.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like the Florida moneyline at Missouri.

DraftKings has Florida at -218. My sim has Florida winning 80.8% of the time.

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like the Florida moneyline at Missouri.

DraftKings has Florida at -218. My sim has Florida winning 80.8% of the time.

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

@wronginpublic

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

More on why I like Penn State.

The defense is the grade gap. Penn State is 92.1 on defense and 94.0 in coverage. Northwestern is 70.0 and 74.4. Run defense is 89.6 against 75.5. Penn State has allowed 46 points in four games. Northwestern has allowed 54 in three.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Bet of the day.

I like Penn State -2.5 at Northwestern.

My model clears that exact number about 68% of the time. My model has Penn State winning by about 8 or 9 points, so laying just 2.5 is the short number.

I pulled the Prem grades: Penn State 95.3 overall and 92.1 on defense (coverage 94.0). Northwestern sits at 81.7 overall and 70.0 on defense (coverage 74.4). Offense snap totals sit at Penn State 270 and Northwestern 192.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Chris Olave OVER 84.5 receiving yards vs Atlanta.

My model clears that line about 75% of the time (mean around 125 yards).

He is at 125 yards per game on about 12 targets and 44 routes a game as New Orleans WR1 with about a 29% target share. Atlanta ranks 32nd allowing WR yards and is without Terrell, so that secondary has been soft against wide receivers. Atlanta sits in single high about 65% of the time, and he averages 2.79 yards per route against single high. They also mix in man around 30% of snaps, and that is where those windows open for him. This volume plus matchup is why I am locked in on the Over.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Chris Olave OVER 84.5 receiving yards vs Atlanta.

My model clears that line about 75% of the time (mean around 125 yards).

He is at 125 yards per game on about 12 targets and 44 routes a game as New Orleans WR1 with about a 29% target share. Atlanta ranks 32nd allowing WR yards and is without Terrell, so that secondary has been soft against wide receivers. Atlanta sits in single high about 65% of the time, and he averages 2.79 yards per route against single high. They also mix in man around 30% of snaps, and that is where those windows open for him. This volume plus matchup is why I am locked in on the Over.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Travis Kelce OVER 48.5 receiving yards vs Las Vegas.

My model clears that line about 72% of the time (mean around 77 yards).

He is at 77 yards per game on 6 targets and 29 routes a game. Kansas City play action with Walker opens short and intermediate windows for him, and Las Vegas has been soft against tight ends.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Jordan Love OVER 35.5 pass attempts at Tampa Bay.

My model clears that line about 71% of the time (mean around 41 attempts).

He is at 41.3 attempts and 44.3 dropbacks a game. Tampa Bay's run front is tough, so Green Bay leans on quick throws and screens, and that script pushes attempt volume up. Shoutout to Tampa Bay starter A'shawn Robinson up front: heavy run snaps, run defense grade 83.8 with 7 stops. Absolute beast in that run front.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Jordan Love OVER 35.5 pass attempts at Tampa Bay.

My model clears that line about 71% of the time (mean around 41 attempts).

He is at 41.3 attempts and 44.3 dropbacks a game. Tampa Bay's run front is tough, so Green Bay leans on quick throws and screens, and that script pushes attempt volume up. Shoutout to Tampa Bay starter A'shawn Robinson up front: heavy run snaps, run defense grade 83.8 with 7 stops. Absolute beast in that run front.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I like Travis Kelce OVER 48.5 receiving yards vs Las Vegas.

My model clears that line about 72% of the time (mean around 77 yards).

He is at 77 yards per game on 6 targets and 29 routes a game. Kansas City play action with Walker opens short and intermediate windows for him, and Las Vegas has been soft against tight ends.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Follow for the best bet of the day for NFL and College Spreads coming soon!!! 💯💯

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Follow for the best bet of the day for NFL and College Spreads coming soon!!! 💯💯

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I dug into GB at TB for Week 4. Here is my team cheat sheet.

TeamRankings (through week 3):
1) TB allows 76.0 rush yards per game (2nd, elite). GB allows 138.7 (28th, soft)
2) GB allows 30.3 points per game (29th tied). TB allows 26.3 (23rd)
3) Board: GB favored by 3.5, total 38.5 (crushed from about 47.5)

PFF grades run 0 to 100 (higher is better):
4) Watson: 28 targets, 17 catches, 284 yards, receiving grade 74.8
5) Van Ness edge grade 80.5 with pressure on 18.5% of his rushes
6) Anzalone linebacker coverage grade 41.9. Robinson run defense grade 83.8 with 7 stops

Practice notes: Mayfield OUT. Daniels first start. Banks missed practice.

Sources: TeamRankings + PFF. No desk model claim.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I am verifying my Week 4 LAR at PHI team cheat sheet.

TeamRankings (through week 3):
1) LAR allows 171.3 pass yards per game (4th, elite) and 21.0 points per game (12th tied)
2) PHI allows 127.3 rush yards per game (25th, soft) and 23.0 points per game (16th)
3) Board: LAR favored by 3.5, total 42.5 (down from about 47.5)

PFF grades run 0 to 100 (higher is better):
4) Lake safety grade 92.7, Curl safety grade 66.5, Wallace corner grade 54.2
5) Young edge grade 76.2 with pressure on 19.4% of his rushes
6) Adams: 29 targets, 18 catches, 358 yards, receiving grade 88.0 (mostly with Nacua out or limited, Nacua only 1 game)

Practice notes (not final): Donald missed Wed and Thu. Nacua limited. Smith missed Wed and Thu, unlikely pending Fri.

Sources: TeamRankings + PFF. No desk model claim.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Like 👍 if you found this Helpful!

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Like 👍 if you found this Helpful!

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I dug into LAR at PHI for Week 4. Here is my team cheat sheet.

TeamRankings (through week 3):
1) LAR allows 171.3 pass yards per game (4th, elite) and 21.0 points per game (12th tied)
2) PHI allows 127.3 rush yards per game (25th, soft) and 23.0 points per game (16th)
3) Board: LAR favored by 3.5, total 42.5 (down from about 47.5)

PFF grades run 0 to 100 (higher is better):
4) Lake safety grade 92.7, Curl safety grade 66.5, Wallace corner grade 54.2
5) Young edge grade 76.2 with pressure on 19.4% of his rushes
6) Adams: 29 targets, 18 catches, 358 yards, receiving grade 88.0 (mostly with Nacua out or limited, Nacua only 1 game)

Practice notes (not final): Donald missed Wed and Thu. Nacua limited. Smith missed Wed and Thu, unlikely pending Fri.

Sources: TeamRankings + PFF. No desk model claim.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I dug into KC at LV for Week 4. Here is my team cheat sheet.

TeamRankings (through week 3):
1) KC scores 29.3 points per game (7th) and allows 16.7 (3rd tied, elite)
2) LV scores 29.3 (7th tied) and allows 18.0 (8th)
3) LV allows 116.3 rush yards per game (20th tied). Board: KC favored by 4.5, total 47.5 (up)

PFF grades run 0 to 100 (higher is better):
4) Rice: 16 targets, 13 catches, 190 yards, receiving grade 68.9
5) Crosby edge grade 83.9 (pressure 19.8%), Koonce edge grade 87.9 (pressure 17.9%)
6) Stokes corner coverage grade 42.8, Sneed corner coverage grade 34.5

Practice notes: KC left tackle Simmons missed Wed and Thu (poised to miss Week 4). Mahomes and Rice full practice.

Sources: TeamRankings + PFF. No desk model claim.

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[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

Like 👍 if you found this Helpful!

[Not A Lock @NotALockNFL]

I dug into GB at TB for Week 4. Here is my team cheat sheet.

TeamRankings (through week 3):
1) TB allows 76.0 rush yards per game (2nd, elite). GB allows 138.7 (28th, soft)
2) GB allows 30.3 points per game (29th tied). TB allows 26.3 (23rd)
3) Board: GB favored by 3.5, total 38.5 (crushed from about 47.5)

PFF grades run 0 to 100 (higher is better):
4) Watson: 28 targets, 17 catches, 284 yards, receiving grade 74.8
5) Van Ness edge grade 80.5 with pressure on 18.5% of his rushes
6) Anzalone linebacker coverage grade 41.9. Robinson run defense grade 83.8 with 7 stops

Practice notes: Mayfield OUT. Daniels first start. Banks missed practice.

Sources: TeamRankings + PFF. No desk model claim.

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