Norman Sasono

Fintech CTO. Physics, Mathematics, Computer Science, AI. “Mens et Manus". “Physics is The Law. Everything else is recommendation”.

[Andrew Ng @AndrewYNg]

There will be no AI jobpocalypse.

The story that AI will lead to massive unemployment is stoking unnecessary fear. AI — like any other technology — does affect jobs, but telling overblown stories of large-scale unemployment is irresponsible and damaging. Let’s put a stop to it.

I’ve expressed skepticism about the jobpocalypse in previous posts. I’m glad to see that the popular press is now pushing back on this narrative. The image below features some recent headlines.

Software engineering is the sector most affected by AI tools, as coding agents race ahead. Yet hiring of software engineers remains strong! So while there are examples of AI taking away jobs, the trends strongly suggest the net job creation is vastly greater than the job destruction — just like earlier waves of technology. Further, despite all the exciting progress in AI, the U.S. unemployment rate remains a healthy 4.3%.

Why is the AI jobpocalypse narrative so popular? For one thing, frontier AI labs have a strong incentive to tell stories that make AI technology sound more powerful. At their most extreme, they promote science-fiction scenarios of AI “taking over” and causing human extinction. If a technology can replace many employees, surely that technology must be very valuable!

Also, a lot of SaaS software companies charge around $100-$1000 per user/year. But if an AI company can replace an employee who makes $100,000 — or make them 50% more productive — then charging even $10,000 starts to look reasonable. By anchoring not to typical SaaS prices but to salaries of employees, AI companies can charge a lot more.

Additionally, businesses have a strong incentive to talk about layoffs as if they were caused by AI. After all, talking about how they’re using AI to be far more productive with fewer staff makes them look smart. This is a better message than admitting they overhired during the pandemic when capital was abundant due to low interest rates and a massive government financial stimulus.

To be clear, I recognize that AI is causing a lot of people’s work to change. This is hard. This is stressful. (And to some, it can be fun.) I empathize with everyone affected. At the same time, this is very different from predicting a collapse of the job market.

Societies are capable of telling themselves stories for years that have little basis in reality and lead to poor society-wide decision making. For example, fears over nuclear plant safety led to under-investment in nuclear power. Fears of the “population bomb” in the 1960s led countries to implement harsh policies to reduce their populations. And worries about dietary fat led governments to promote unhealthy high-sugar diets for decades.

Now that mainstream media is openly skeptical about the jobpocalypse, I hope these stories will start to lose their teeth (much like fears of AI-driven human extinction have).

Contrary to the predictions of an AI jobpocalypse, I predict the opposite: There will be an AI jobapalooza! AI will lead to a lot more good AI engineering jobs, and I’m also optimistic about the future of the overall job market. What AI engineers do will be different from traditional software engineering, and many of these jobs will be in businesses other than traditional large employers of developers. In non-AI roles, too, the skills needed will change because of AI. That makes this a good time to encourage more people to become proficient in AI, and make sure they’re ready for the different but plentiful jobs of the future!

[Original text in The Batch newsletter.]

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Anthropic has 454 open roles. The company is hiring software engineers at $320K-$405K. Their CEO, Dario, said three months ago that coding is "going away first, then all of software engineering."

The paradox resolves instantly.

Dario's engineers told him they don't write code anymore. They let Claude write it. They edit. They review. They architect. They didn't lose their jobs. They got faster. Anthropic grew from a small research lab to 1,500 employees in four years, adding engineers the entire time.

This has played out five times in computing history. Compilers replaced assembly. Frameworks replaced boilerplate. Cloud replaced server management. Every prediction was the same: most programmers won't be needed. Every result was the same: the number of engineers grew.

The global software engineer pool went from roughly 5 million in 2010 to 28.7 million today. BLS projects 17% growth in US software developer roles through 2033, adding 304,000 positions. The pool is projected to hit 45 million by 2030.

When building software gets cheaper, more problems become worth solving with software. A startup that needed 10 engineers now needs 3. But 50 companies that couldn't afford to build at all now can. The denominator shrinks. The numerator explodes.

Meta's engineering headcount is up 19% from January 2022. Google's is up 16%. Apple, 13%. These companies adopted AI coding tools years ago. They're using Copilot and Claude Code daily. They're hiring more engineers than before those tools existed.

Every generation of "coding is dead" content creates two cohorts: engineers who freeze up, and engineers who build 10x more with the new tools. The second group has won every single time.

[James Bond @007]

30 years of Pierce Brosnan as 007.

[James Bond @007]

30 years later, this GOLDENEYE chase is still unmatched.

[Norman Sasono @nsasono]

@pengobralgambar Grazie

[James Bond @007]

Celebrate 30 years of GOLDENEYE, back in cinemas today. For more information go to https://t.co/1JH3zpzGuv.

[James Bond @007]

Has it been 63 years already?

[James Bond @007]

To celebrate James Bond Day, GOLDENEYE returns to the big screen worldwide from Friday 3 October in 4K, marking thirty years since the film's release. More information and tickets on https://t.co/1JH3zpzGuv.

[Norman Sasono @nsasono]

Pardon the performance.
I am a CTO. Not a singer. 😂

[Norman Sasono @nsasono]

Well, I’m a Punkrocker, Yes, I am.
Cos I’m a Punkrocker, Yes, I am.

[Norman Sasono @nsasono]

For gen x like me, who grew up really reading the comics, and was soo happy to see Christopher Reeve's portrayal, watching James Gunn's Superman somehow calling out the inner kid in me. That warm happy feeling to see Superman came back. This is the Superman I know! This is just like the comics I know.
Man of Steel was good. I like it. It gave something different. Cavill was awesome. I enjoyed the movie and all installement of BvS anf JL. It was epic. I enjoyed it.
So, James Gunn Superman is Superman!
One I know as a Kid.
Man of Steel Superman is diff view of Superman I also appreciate.
Enjoy both, guys. It is fine not to pick a side.
Again, lovers gonna love, haters gonna hate.
When was the last time you really winning argument with someone u dont know over the internet and make him switch to your views and beliefs?
PS: Both my Gen Z kids had Man of Steel as their first Superman experience and exposure. Interestingly, they like James Gunn's Superman more. They think it is so good and better.

[Norman Sasono @nsasono]

Love the energy in this place