New York Fed Research

Original research, scholarly content, data, surveys, and economic analysis of the Research Group of @NewYorkFed. Home to research centers #AMEC and #NYFedCMD.

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INDEX
The GSCPI fell to 1.25 in June, down from 1.81 in May.
https://t.co/yvUaNhyVBk

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST:
2026:Q2 → 2.7%
2026:Q3 → 2.4%

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

Jaison Abel, Head of Microeconomics, spoke to Inside Higher Ed about the job market for recent college graduates and the advantage of a college degree.

https://t.co/e11KTy9DOc

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index rose to -.02 in May, up slightly from a revised value of -.07 in April. The change was driven by modest increases in both quits and vacancies per effective searcher.

View the interactive and download the data >> https://t.co/kJnSAtf4FN

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

The latest from @LibertyStEcon

The Disappearing Overnight Drift

By Nina Boyarchenko, Lars C. Larsen, and Paul Whelan

https://t.co/90XxNRYeVj

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

In this video, economists Wilbert van der Klaauw and Gizem Kosar discuss rising food insecurity in the U.S. and how it may be adding to consumer pessimism about where the economy is and where it’s going.

More: https://t.co/MibS2ZJ9LX

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

The latest from @LibertyStEcon

Liquidity Fades as Treasuries Age

By Alain Chaboud, Ellen Correia Golay, Michael J. Fleming, Yesol Huh, Frank M. Keane, and Or Shachar

https://t.co/xr4boal03L

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

+ LINK https://t.co/ZH11LvTRjb

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

Research Economist Natalia Emanuel and coauthor Emma Harrington (UVA) published a guest essay in the New York Times, "We Liked Remote Work. Then We Looked at the Data." It is based on new work in the journal Science.

>>
Opinion | We Liked Remote Work. Then We Looked at the Data.

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

Financial Research Advisor Linda S. Goldberg moderated a keynote discussion at the Federal Reserve Board earlier this week with Cornell's Eswar Prasad on how financial innovation and new digital currencies may reshape the dollar's international roles.

https://t.co/L8zHAfQHqz

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST:
2026:Q2 → 2.7%
2026:Q3 → 2.4%

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation was 3.4 percent in May, a decrease from 3.7 percent (a downward revision) in April. The 68 percent probability band is (3.0, 3.9).

https://t.co/rLAlA3w8yi

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The latest from @LibertyStEcon

How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022‑23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?

By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto

https://t.co/JkGyP06KTC

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

At a community banking conference yesterday, Economic Policy Advisor Joelle Scally spoke about economic conditions in the region. Of note, credit delinquenices have leveled off, but remain elevated.

https://t.co/HMerfcIqYa

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

After staying near 63% for decades, the labor share—the fraction of output paid to workers as wages and salaries—now stands at an all-time low in the postwar period. How does the measure's post-COVID decline compare to earlier episodes? Read the post: https://t.co/GaufcB65LU

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CORPORATE BOND MARKET DISTRESS INDEX | June 2026

Market-level CMDI improved over the past month, ending slightly above its historical 20th percentile.

More >> https://t.co/8X0EXeoPxx

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The latest from @LibertyStEcon

The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share

By Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, Srinidhi Narayanan, and Rachel Schuh

https://t.co/D25vzbDq7V

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

Data on year-over-year change in home prices across 1,200 U.S. counties and the United States nationally (January 2003 to April 2026)

>> https://t.co/p3j4DMRHre

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

HOME PRICE CHANGES

According to data from CoreLogic, the nationwide pace of home price growth slowed to 0.3% year over year in April, down from 0.5% in March.

#housingmarket

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast:
Since the March update, the model's 2026 inflation forecast has risen, as has the prediction for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*).
https://t.co/MYj5QrRZkA