godiva

[godiva @o2choco]

@RaoulGMI Phenomenal piece

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

The Everything Code TL;DR.

The labor force participation rate isn’t going to rise anytime soon – it’s set to keep declining over time. This is a structural problem…

We’ve got aging demographics, falling birth rates, and now the rise of automation.

Humans are already being replaced by AI and robots at a staggering pace, and that shift is only just beginning. This is deflationary.

It also reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system afloat.

Fewer workers. More tech. Same debts…

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

Of all the cryptoassets, the GENIUS Act is probably most positive for $ETH given its stablecoin base, robust DeFi Infra, and long-running institutional rapport. $SOL won’t be far behind, and $TRX is the ignored dark horse for historical reasons. Let’s see how it all plays out.

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

When blockchain economies boom, they have the fastest economic feedback loop of any trillion dollar system in the world—

activity ➡️ onchain flows ➡️ price ➡️ activity

— when in despair, we always forget this, then are surprised by how rapidly our fortunes change.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

There’s a lot of noise in the market right now – conflicting narratives everywhere.

But here’s the reality – or at least my take on what’s really going on:

Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 last year.

When financial conditions tighten, liquidity gets drained, and economic surprises start to slow. I mentioned this before, including in a tweet I posted yesterday.

That’s why we’re seeing a soft patch in the economic data and why the market is freaking out about a growth scare, with recession talk now making a comeback.

Here’s the thing:

This will all reverse next month.

Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months – dollar down, bond yields down, oil down – and that’s setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon. Remember, financial conditions are always leading.

One final point:

With the drop to $80k, this tightening is now fully reflected in the price of Bitcoin.

Could we go a little lower? Sure…

But here’s what I’d say:

Everyone’s already on the same side of the trade – sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin is sitting at an RSI of 23, the most oversold level since August 2023.

So if you’re still bearish, don’t get too comfortable…

Instead, be greedy when others are fearful.

Just my two cents. Hope it’s helpful to some.

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

Everyone should go back and listen to this podcast with @cburniske

In particular, I found the Solana section (timestamp 1:07:00) very valuable.

This industry has a strong tendency to memory hole itself.

People forget how different consensus views were even two short years ago, and how strongly those opinions were held.

Questions I asked myself listening to this:

1. How can you spot shifts in the meta before the fundamentals back them up?
2. Where is there consensus today (similar to where Ethereum was in 2022?)
3. What might cause that consensus to shift, and where is the market likely to move next?

https://t.co/zAmHZTkrWF

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

1/ If your friends associate you with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any part of crypto, you’re probably getting Qs about what to do. It’s tricky to guide someone from where we are currently ($BTC ~$100K), especially if they’re an inexperienced investor. Some learnings from 10+ years of watching this dynamic play out...

[:) @smileycapital]

every cycle, the top signals keep moving a level further;

if you told the class of 2017 that in 4 years institutions will adopt BTC, retail will hyper-gamble on shitcoins, sold dreams of future of decentralized/layer 1/metaverse finance, NFTs worth 7 figs - most wouldn't believe you

if you told the class of 2021 that in 4 years countries will be adopting BTC, majors will have their own ETFs, POTUS will bullpost crypto while buying literal shitcoins on government wallet with Donald Trump screaming how great and American crypto is - most wouldn't believe you

the trick seems to be recognizing continuous adoption while staying grounded enough not to get carried away by newest bullrun developments and pipe dreams

stay level-headed going into the next few months, quarters, as things are about to get even crazier

the future is bright, alas, the lightbulb needs changing every once in a while

anyway - higher, there's still some clouds above us that need conquering

[Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong @DrPatrick]

Maybe the lesson we learned out of this catastrophe in California is to now vote not based on left or right or D versus R but perhaps based on competent or no experience in operating a job !! We have to elect based on competence…yes competence matters.

[godiva @o2choco]

@cburniske Seeing all the hate in the comments gives me comfort that Chris is going to be right again 😌

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

to understand why number goes up first you must understand what numbers are going down

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

.@coinbase will be recruiting new college grads from UATX when they're ready (hopefully some interns in the mean time)

It aligns well with our apolitical culture. Let's hope we see more apolitical universities emerge over time, and a continued shift toward MEI.

[Marcus Lemonis @marcuslemonis]

Please stop with the “warrior” mentality. Drive revenue, improve safety, improve property values, improve education. @JBPritzker

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

Don’t Die — removing the limits of life.

AI — removing the limits of intelligence.

Space — removing the limits of civilization.

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

More than ok, sitting calmly in spot may allow you to compound the most wealth over the longest period of time.

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

Appreciate Kamala agreeing to engage in a peaceful transfer of power - Trump won fair & square. Now it's on each American to step forward united, with less radical & polarized rhetoric. If those of us on X are the new media, we should be the example we want to see.

[foobar/ @0xfoobar]

elon put it all on black and won yet again

zip2 -> paypal -> solarcity -> tesla -> spacex -> twitter -> trump

incredible set of courageous parlays with very real risk of getting fully wiped each time. even the best and brightest usually stop swinging after one or two big wins

[Naval @naval]

Go vote - this one matters.

Focus on policies, not people.

Vote for freedom, entrepreneurship, meritocracy.

Vote against serfdom, censorship, bureaucracy.

Go vote.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Sometimes a script looks to perfect, it's hard to believe.

#bitcoin closes 2nd yr of 4 year Cycle next month, entering the 3rd & historically explosive year of the Cycle.

An 8 month base has been built, sentiment reset, and rates are easing.

I mean, the script is perfect.