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@policytensor What coordination, if any, on this between Iran and China may answer a lot of these questions

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@policytensor A large unknown is the communication between Iran and China. China has blunted the damage Iran can do with Hormuz by releasing their SPR. China may prefer a longer stalemate to deplete US arsenals further, and find this worth running down their SPR.

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@jstein_notus @MattBruenig Im not sure there was ever a time^^

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@jstein_notus @MattBruenig A problem with this is that while certainly "merit" in specific circumstances is technologically contingent, I'm sure there was ever a time when intelligence generally was not advantageous. A general decline in intelligence could be catastrophic

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@jstein_notus @MattBruenig Like, "are you able to make intelligent decisions about your life" is always going to help. It will be very bad if policy makers cannot understand complex problems or thoughtfully make decisions, even if something like writing briefing notes or research papers is done by AI

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@policytensor Missile dominance has not won them Ukraine, i don't know why anyone would think it would win them Europe. An attack on NATO now would be similar to Japan's attack on pearl harbor after they got stuck in China

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@policytensor Dont you think they'll start shooting down each other's satellites?

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@SevaUT One of the funny things is that the set up and family dynamic was much more what the writers remembered from their own childhood than it was a late 80s reality. It was out of date at the time!

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@Econ_Marshall Honest question

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@Econ_Marshall What are "demand factors"? What's the prescription for addressing demand factors other than more supply (yimbyism)?

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@calebgamman You should make YouTube videos though. Those were good ones

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@Kabooski01 Yeah, it was a flop when it was published in 1851 and fewer than 4000 copies were sold. It was essentially rediscovered and became popular in the 1920s

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@policytensor The US should abandon the bases and put the money into hardening Taiwan itself. Landmines, seamines, drones. Start digging into the mountains, fill bunkers with ocean surface drones, make holding territory in Taiwan as painful as possible. Apply the lessons from recent conflicts!

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@policytensor But the rest of Asia does not therefore simply have to submit. After years, continued resistance could exhaust China just as it has other would-be conquerors. Flattening Taiwan or starving its population are not positive outcomes for China

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@policytensor China is definitely not Russia or the US. But Taiwan, Korea and Japan are not Ukraine, Gaza or Iran. Russia, the US and Israel's experience should caution against premature assumptions based on relative size. China is a behemoth, and would beat the US in a shooting match, but

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@michaeljmcnair All of this discussion is bizarre and ig ore everything the US done in the past two years. The US has threatened to annex Canada and Greenland. It's imposed tariffs on everyone, and torn up its agreements. US's commitment to NATO is less than half the story here

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@yuyupyup111 @sentdefender Insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan didn't have ballistic missiles the US needed interceptors to shoot down.

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@policytensor What is Oman's angle here? They seem on board to co-rule the strait with Iran, but obviously also seem to be cooperating with the US in sending ships along their coast