ogkoolrod

[dough @semodough]

$LQDA Liquidia Announces Global Settlement Resolving All Pending Litigation with United Therapeutics, Ensuring Continued Commercialization of YUTREPIA in PAH | Liquidia Corporation https://t.co/4RzofWE7jF

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

@_Ceiv hard to argue any of this - $8b would be nice. Bring in a BP behemoth to crush uthr...but would anyone be willing to pay such a premium? that's about 3x today's MC

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

You're totally right that single drugs can dominate a market—look at how Merck protects Keytruda. But isn't the FTC's main trigger specifically targeted at mergers and acquisitions? Building a monopoly through internal R&D is one thing, but dont' regulators usually step in when a dominant player tries to buy out its only direct competitor?

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

@_Ceiv @CodyB1991 @mbamcnulty You make a really good point about pills and IV therapies broadening the overall landscape. But doesn't the legal fight usually hyper-focus on the delivery mechanism—treating "inhaled treprostinil" as its own specific category for patients who can't use other options?

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

Even with INSM's TPIP on the horizon, UTHR’s playbook has always been total exclusivity over profit-sharing. Taking a 25% cut on Yutrepia doesn't replace the lost revenue of a full Tyvaso prescription.

On $LQDA's side, handing over L606 royalties would be giving away the farm. L606 is their true long-term growth driver. They don't need to sweeten any pot when they can just launch Yutrepia into the PAH market tomorrow and win the PH-ILD indication later on appeal.

This is just my perspective obviously. I could be way off base.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

While there are other oral PAH pills, UTHR essentially owns the inhaled treprostinil market. By winning the '327 patent ruling, they just locked down their PH-ILD monopoly.

I get wanting another buyer to step in. But any acquiring company inherits the judge's order. They still wouldn't be able to launch for PH-ILD until they win the appeal, meaning no buyer is going to pay a massive premium while half the drug's TAM is legally locked up.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

$LQDA To be precise, Judge Andrews signed off on a stipulation (Doc 478/479) between the two legal teams. Because yesterday was the deadline to submit a proposed final remedy, they likely just agreed on the procedural formatting so the judge could formally enter the order—not a secret settlement or compromise. Since the document is sealed, we are in a holding pattern until the court unseals it or $LQDA drops an 8-K to confirm the exact scope of the injunction on Yutrepia's PAH launch.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

I never bought into the 'worst case scenario' outcome even being possible. Don't worry, they definitely don't have to start from scratch.

Because UTHR's patent only applies to the method of treating PH-ILD, the drug itself isn't banned. LQDA doesn't need to refile an NDA; they just file a quick sNDA (a supplement) to literally delete the PH-ILD wording from the box label. Once the FDA accepts that carve-out, the PAH launch gets the green light.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

$LQDA For anyone reading into the "Stipulation" on the Delaware docket today: he signed off on the stipulation (Doc 478), not a final order yet—but this is likely the agreed legal text for the final remedy following last week's deadline.

This is not to suggest UTHR backed down or make a deal. This is necessary legal plumbing so the judgment can be formally entered, enabling LQDA to take the fight to the Federal Circuit. Sealed for now while we wait for an 8-K or public release. LQDA needs this final judgment entered so they can officially launch their Federal Circuit appeal. This stipulation likely is just the lawyers finalizing the mandatory paperwork from last week's ruling.

The real question is the scope: if the injunction is narrowly tailored to PH-ILD, LQDA’s PAH carve-out strategy is officially cleared for launch. We wait for the unsealing.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

I wouldn't assume the stipulation means UTHR agreed to a carve-out. They likely just agreed on the legal formatting of the final order (which is a mechanical requirement before anyone can appeal).

Also, UTHR doesn't have the legal right to block the whole NDA anyway. They won a method-of-use patent for PH-ILD, not the actual drug molecule. By law, fairly certain they can only block the infringing indication, leaving PAH legally untouched.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

I get why it sounds like a win-win on paper, but the corporate math ruins it.

Because Tyvaso products are the key drivers of UTHR's top line, every patient that switches to Yutrepia represents a massive loss of margin for UTHR. A royalty on Liquidia's sales won't replace the billions lost from breaking the monopoly. UTHR has every incentive to keep Yutrepia off the market completely rather than settle for a piece of the pie.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

I don't know if the FTC would even allow that..

UTHR already operates a monopoly in the inhaled treprostinil market (Tyvaso). Buying $LQDA—their only direct competitor—is a glaring antitrust violation. I think regulators would block the acquisition on day one to protect patient pricing and market competition.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

A universal royalty is a non-starter for both sides.

For $LQDA: Why pay a 10% tax on PAH, COPD, or Raynaud's when UTHR has zero legal claim to them? Just carve out PAH and keep 100% of the revenue.

For UTHR: Taking a 10% royalty means letting a superior device onto the market. That cannibalizes their multi-billion dollar Tyvaso monopoly. They want a blockade, not a settlement.... Hoping we get a release from lqda soon with details

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

"Judges build toll booths, not graveyards" is the perfect way to frame this. The initial panic drop priced in a graveyard—a total FDA block.

Today's ~9% bounce is the market waking up to the reality of the Hatch-Waxman "toll booth", that toll is strictly limited to carving PH-ILD off the label. Yutrepia still gets to drive straight through to the massive PAH market

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

$LQDA In the District of Delaware, local court rules typically give the parties 7 days to agree on redactions and file a public version of a sealed document on the docket.

However, I believe SEC rules require lqda to file an 8-K within 4 business days for any material event. We will almost certainly see an 8-K or press release from Liquidia explaining the terms of the stipulation well before the court's 7-day unsealing deadline.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

@pvw250 Delaware federal court rules usually give the lawyers 7 days to file the public, redacted version on the docket.

But practically, we'll hear from $LQDA first. SEC rules mandate an 8-K within 4 business days for material updates, so expect a filing or PR very soon.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

Technically, he just signed off on the stipulation (Doc 478). However, since the deadline to submit the joint proposed final judgment was yesterday, this stipulation is almost certainly both legal teams agreeing on the final text of that judgment. We just have to wait for the unsealing or an 8-K to read the actual terms.

[ogkoolrod @og_Kool_Rod]

$LQDA
wen death sentence? 🤷‍♂️