Same pattern as early 2008. Same as late 2019.
Subscribe for the July 14 CPI reaction β the next catalyst. π
β Not financial advice. Educational only.
Yesterday I posted a video predicting 3 NFP scenarios.
Scenario A (weak NFP <100K) β I called it at 40% probability.
Today's actual print: 57,000 jobs. Consensus was 110,000.
A 48% miss.
Scenario A hit. Watch both videos in order to see prediction β outcome. π§΅π
The key insight from Video 1 that played out in Video 2:
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% β sounds bullish.
It dropped because 280,000 people LEFT the workforce. They didn't find jobs. They gave up.
That's a recession signal hiding inside the headline.