If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts
If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom
If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move
And so on for basically every trading system
This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising
Your job is to understand it and manage it
If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid
There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs
Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases
The stuff you wanna avoid:
1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside)
2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move
>95% of current robinhood chain activity is onchain native holders so far
this is visible by seeing how the most liquid, highest organic flow onchain asset tracking btc/qqq more than hood/qqq or hood/btc
that means that zero-to-minimal non-onchain native robinhood users has bridged yet
the real wave hasnt hit yet, for now
it's crazy seeing the mental gymnastics people are going through just to dismiss the Robinhood chain
'XYZ other chains have launched and they're all dead'
Robinhood is literally a $100 BILLION+ publicly traded company and the biggest retail trading platform in the entire world (!!!)
it is the official brokerage and initial trustee for Trump Accounts, arguably the most significant new financial product in America right now and for the foreseeable future
every single one of the most phenomenal meme asset movements in history involved Robinhood:
• it was the biggest accelerant behind the $GME retail mania in 2021
• it was the biggest driving force behind $DOGE's rally to an $88 billion+ market cap after Elon
• mere speculation about a Robinhood listing sent $SHIB from a few billion dollars to over a $40 billion ATH in 2021
and now people are comparing this to some random L2 that raised $100 million from VCs desperate to offload on retail
it's just like the cultural shift from Ethereum to Solana years ago:
many will cope hard here
and then submit later
like it or not, Robinhood chain is here to stay
// robinhood $HOOD and the hated 95%+ margin industry: 346million$ net income for a 100billion stock, 245million$ in addressable net income.
at the moment the meme trading infrastructure industry is doing an aggregate total of ~250million$ in revenue per quarter (pump, axiom, gmgn, uniswap, etc), in an environment where memes are very much hated
these are platforms where they onboard net ~zero-to-minimal new users, as the majority of their current users are mostly pre-existing from last onchain cycle.
most might not be aware of this, but in the meme trading infrastructure & platform industry, margins are extremely high. higher than even memory supercycle magins. rpc cost is 10k$ a month, servers are 2k$ a month. fees are 1% of volume. essentially, more than 95% of revenue is profit - which makes for approximately 242.5million$ net income per quarter at the minimum.
robinhood $HOOD is currently worth 101billion$ mcap. their latest earnings at Q1 2026 puts them at 1.067billion$ revenue with 346million$ net income.
they control the highest population of degenerates on the planet - essentially, the "next 10 million crypto users" that our industry has been trying to onboard for the past 3 years. they have 27 million kyc'ed degenerates on their platform - actual real users. not botted crypto "users" running on the founder's macbook
for the monopolizer of the "next 10 million crypto users" with more than 7x coinbase users, it is not unrealistic to assume that they would be able to capture at least 30% of existing (bear market) onchain trading revenue market share. they are bigger than all of them combined in terms of PMF and also control the biggest, untouched customer sector - degens. note that when i say onchain, 95% of onchain volume today is literally memes - personally wish that there is more utility, but the market is bigger than us. so hence we should adapt to the market.
30% of existing meme trading revenue converts to ~80million$ in additional earnings per quarter, given that margins are ~95% for meme trading infrastructure. tradfi brokers (ibkr, fidelity, etc) fight tooth and nail to charge an approximate ~0.1-0.15% fees. gmgn, photon, etc charges nearly 10x that at 1%. it is simply the lowest hanging fruit for robinhood to harvest given their user-market-fit moat.
~80million$ in additional net income represents a +24% gain in robinhood's earnings, quite possibly as soon as this quarter, since as we know in memes things move VERY fast. pumpfun made it from launch to an annualized 600million$+ profit in less than a quarter. robinhood knows that. such a sudden and extreme earnings growth would likely push the stock by 20%-30%, taking a midpoint it's a +30billion$ mcap move on robinhood's table as long as they capture the meme trading infrastructure sector - which is honestly speaking, not hard to do. even nobodies were able to push meme trading infras to 250million+ quarterly net income - let alone the platform with the largest meme moat on the planet (27million degens. 7x coinbase users). obviously, they will do it.
note that these calculations were based on a meme eco where
so what am i getting here - is that robinhood will likely place memes as their top priority this quarter. there is simply no second best to generate such asymmetric earnings growth for a company in that position. and they have a duty to their shareholders to prioritize what benefits the company most.
this isn't a call directed to any meme - but moreso a thesis that memes are coming back. whether we like it or not. the market is the market, and a trader's job is to adapt to changing market conditions.
I know it’s difficult but to really succeed you must take losses on the chin and move on fast.
Everyone has losses and everyone is wrong in this game. A big part of trading psychology is learning to detach your identity from the outcome of any one trade.
Taking a loss doesn’t mean you’re a bad trader it’s just the cost of doing business.
Trading is a business.
Even the best traders in the world are wrong all the time. The main difference is they don’t spiral when they’re wrong. It’s easy to enter a doom loop of losing a trade, making dumb decisions, and blowing up.
If you can’t take a loss you’ll never succeed.
Learn from a loss and reflect on it then you have to move on. That’s trading.
the more i research the more convinced i am on this
i think its +ev to do a 4 month twap with autoadapting weightage knobs, standard weightage scaled into higher weightage (max 2x weightage per twap time slice) the lower price goes on LIFO-style weightage deduction from end of 4 month window first
Imo it's so so hard to express how good some of the opportunities are that lay ahead. I want to get in a lot more detail and get into it on this. To really explain the thought process on it all. I think it's really important to cover bc we likely have some of the greatest investment opportunities of our lives ahead, that likely may exceed anything we have ever seen. But it requires a decade long view, bc scaling something like robotics isnt going to happen overnight
See this steering wheel?
See how there is nothing on it?
A wheel and paddles.
This is why the 991 generation will continue to appreciate.
Immense performance, minimal distraction.
"Si tu es si intelligent, pourquoi tu n'es pas riche ?" Phrase provocatrice et profondément vraie.
Devenir riche est certainement la plus belle preuve d'intelligence qui existe. Cette intelligence sous-entend la capacité à identifier les liens, les chaînes causales, la séquentialité de l'action, et à agir sur eux.
C'est celle qui vous permet de naviguer dans le monde, c'est à dire atteindre vos objectifs individuels avec les moyens dont vous disposez, dans l'environnement et les circonstances qui sont les vôtres.
Cette intelligence, aucun diplôme ne vous y prépare. C'est l'intelligence de l'action humaine, n'est pas académique, ni même scolaire. Elle est à chercher ailleurs.
Elle ne se légitime pas par un diplôme reçu une fois dans une vie, elle se prouve quotidiennement.
Trading shouldn’t ruin your life, but it is consuming and difficult. The obsessed self-select
It’s not just a 9-5 you clock into
Anyone telling you “you can get rich doing this as a side hustle” is obviously lying
Naturally, most of the available content is bad / misleading