‼️Claims that the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine are already spreading. Please stop sharing them:
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Ukraine continues to receive U.S. intelligence.
Ethiopia has started a large military build-up around Bododa near the borders with Eritrea and Djibouti.
Meanwhile, the Eritrean military is also surging troops on their side of the border in the area.
A clash is possible in the coming days and weeks.
Sytuacja w rejonie: Zołote Kołodiazi - Nowotroickie - Andrivka (Dobropole).
Mniej więcej miesiąc temu we wpisie o bardzo dużej liczbie FAB-ów z modułami UMPK zrzucanych przez rus w rejonie Andrivki, sygnalizowałem że sytuacja 1 Korpusu "Azowa" GN na płn od Dobropola jest dużo gorsza niż przedstawia to mapa DS, czy mapy innych mapperów. Wtedy jednak się wstrzymałem z robieniem swojej mapy, nie będąc pewien czy rus się tam skonsolidowali i zdobyli te tereny, czy dalej mamy do czynienia z aktywnością DRG.
Jednak ostatnio po długim okresie braku Sentinela, bezchmurna pogoda zawitała nad Donbas i możliwa była ponowna ocena. Przypominam to jest dokładnie ten sam model analizy opartej o leje po FAB-ach, który pozwolił mi - z niewielkimi błędami - ustalić w sierpniu 2026 r. zasięg zdobyczy III Korpusu w rejonie na płn od Łymanu. Więc błędy są możliwe, status niektórych miejscowości (np Nowotroickie) pozostaje niejasny.
Tak więc na podstawie analizy Sentinela taktycznych bombardowań rus lotnictwa można stwierdzić, że w rejonie: Zołote Kołodiazi - Nowotroickie - Andrivka ich strefa cały czas przesuwa się na zachód. Nie dostrzegłem śladów większych kontrataków ukr wojsk sygnalizowanych ostatnio przez dowództwo 1 Korpusu GN "Azowa" Tym samym można przyjąć że wsie Zołote Kołodiazi, Vesele, Hrużke i Andriwke, które bombardowane przez rus lotnictwo już dawno nie są, znajdują się pod kontrolą jednostek GW "Centrum". Ich DRG toczą obecnie walki w pasach zalesień w bombardowanym przez rus lotnictwo taktyczne rejonie wsi: Marjiwka - Lidyne - Nowojawlenka. Niejasny pozostaje status Nowotroickie. Wieś może być ukr, rus lub pozostaje szara strefą.
W ostatnich dniach na rus telegramach krąży plotka o ukazaniu się filmu z dużego flagowania rus samego Dobropola. Tak jak pisałem wielokrotnie około 20-50 rus żołnierzy od co najmniej końca sierpnia 2026 r. znajduje się w mieście, tak więc samo takie flagowanie jest możliwe. Nie będzie jednak na razie oznaczało ono całkowitego zdobycia tego miasta przez GW "Centrum".
Ukrainian forces using drones have destroyed a large group of Russian Spetsnaz special forces who attempted to cross the Dnipro river into Kherson city to conduct widespread sabotage.
On the Velika Novosilka front, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues to make advances on a large front against Russia 🇷🇺's 29th Army
Based on incomplete information available via OSINT (geolocated videos, satellite imagery, and Telegram channels updates), Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive operations along the southern front and have advanced several kilometers.
These operations are being conducted under the command of the DShV (Air Assault Forces), a formation established specifically for this sector earlier in the year, facing the Russian 29th Army, which is grappling with mounting difficulties. The Novopavlivka sector is also in a precarious state following the redeployment of the 41st Army toward Dobropillia, leaving few defensive units in the area.
🔹To the north, Ukrainian forces are advancing from Novopavlivka toward Dachne, while Russian infiltration units continue to attempt attacks toward Ivanivka (though without reaching previously liberated areas).
🔹Ukrainian troops continue to cross the Mokri Yali River and are infiltrating deep into the area in small groups. Urban combat has reportedly been underway in Komar for over a month, evidenced by the frequent shelling of their positions in the forests and villages to the north and west.
🔹At the same time, it appears they have entered Fedorivka, although there is currently no visual evidence to confirm this.
🔹Further south, Ukrainian forces have reached a significant portion of the second line of defense established in 2023, extending almost to the Mokri Yali River. According to various Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, Shevchenko is reportedly under Ukrainian control, with continued, though unconfirmed, advances to the south and east. There is only a single piece of visual evidence showing Ukrainian troops in Shevchenko. For the time being, I prefer to maintain a large "gray zone" due to the lack of information and the frequent presence of Russian soldiers behind Ukrainian lines.
The Ukrainians' main success is having reached the Mokri Yali River, a difficult obstacle for Russian forces to cross, thereby distancing key urban centers and roads in the Dnipropetrovsk region (the junction between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk) from the front line. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have retaken a significant portion of the 2023 defensive line, specifically the bunkers that allow for the establishment of strong positions for drone operators.
What comes next? For now, the Ukrainians appear to be focusing on urban combat in Komar and Sevchenko. Should these settlements fall, they would provide two key villages where forces could be concentrated and concealed ahead of winter. Meanwhile, several pontoon bridges have been destroyed at Velyka Novosilka, as the small town—the region's primary logistics hub—comes under increasing pressure.
Thank you for following along. The information presented here is based solely on open-source data that is at least 10 days old; both Russian and Ukrainian forces are avoiding the release of information regarding this sector, which complicates research efforts.
США атакували комерційний танкер в затоці Омана на тлі загострення напруженості.
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Особистий коментар: По дизелю б'ють, який хотів зменшити ціни на дизель для американців. ☝️
🇺🇸The United States just told Europe to get ready for conflict - not because war is imminent, but because America is shifting its focus to China.
At the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12, US NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said Europe must be ready for conflict. Human nature and history have not been overcome, he argued, and the surest path to peace is to prepare for war.
The message fits Washington’s push for Europe to take primary responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense while the US keeps the nuclear umbrella. China is seen as the greater long-term threat, and the US military cannot maintain a large presence across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia at once - especially if a conflict over Taiwan emerges.
📌Gunslinger Gambit at Grafenwoehr, Germany:
Annual population growth per year (by continent)
📉Europe: -893k
📈Oceania: +508k
📈South America: +2.4M
📈North America: +4.0M
📈Asia: +27.4M
📈Africa: +35.2M
Source: World Population Review
A South Korean cargo ship has made history by completing the country’s first commercial round trip to Europe through the Arctic. It potentially makes shipping routes to and from Europe much faster and cheaper.
Al Jazeera’s Jack Barton reports.
Sources russes 🇷🇺 - l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 repousse le front devant Sloviansk
Après des mois d'offensive russe sur Sloviansk et Kramatorsk, l'armée ukrainienne a déployé des renforts et commencé une stabilisation du front.
Depuis au moins 2 mois, des actions de nettoyage des infiltrations sont en cours à l'est de Sloviansk. La majorité des chaines Telegram russes parlent de cette situation depuis plusieurs semaine, ce qui est confirmé par de nombreuses vidéos.
C'est une preuve de plus que l'offensive ukrainienne à Lyman a permis de stabiliser puis de repousser le front sur un large périmètre. Il semblerai que l'ensemble du 3ème Corps d'armée de Biletski ait l'initiative à l'heure actuelle...