In general, I find that people who use high leverage, or constantly try to hit big wins never win in the end. The speed at which they try to make it is the speed at which they lose it.
Just being consistent with your risk management, sizing, and more importantly. Making good decisions over a long period of time add up to getting you to all your goals. The power of compounding those choices is unmatched
Good decisions, consistently, over long periods of times.
you actually don't have to take trades that aren't good or when conditions aren't what you want.
You can literally just wait for good trades, make a lot of money over a few month period, and then do nothing while others get chopped and call bottoms.
know when to play offense, defense, and when to take good tactical trades by waiting for others to make mistakes.
It's been a good year, and for the most part we cooked
avoided all the drawdown in crypto this year, and had been long hype + adding a lot on the way up as the core exposure
Got a good amount of the AI trade in stonks and general stock exposure for the past 18 months
longed eth at 1766. not crazy size tho
Also, just some general thoughts on this year below:
The average person would be better off trying to capture the meat of the move. vs trying to time bottoms. How many times did people call a macro bottom in the past year? it felt like everyday.
Let's keep this idea simple, Im going to oversimplify it but as a framework. lets say instead of catching a bottom. You pay a 20% premium from the lows to enter but you structurally get a reclaim. The first HH. You can then ride that up bc your invalidation is so so so so cheap at that point and so is the entry. You know the spot it can't lose structurally. if it's the start of an uptrend, you have all the upside without the time cost, opp costs, emotional costs, and very real drawdowns. And instead get to ride momentum from the reclaims.
Lets say $100 is that HH point, buying at $99 can be extremely expensive but buying at $101 can be very cheap. Bc of market structure + trend. The 99 can just be trend continuation and the next LH, while the 101 is a restest of a major reclaim that leads to continuation but also gives you a cheap exit if wrong.
If there is one thing I'm great at. It's knowing when to go on offense, and when to go on defense, and capture large parts of trends regardless of what market it is. Equities, or crypto. Especially the time aspect of defense which is where most people struggle. (see all the repeated bottom calls in the bear market on this platform) Right now, in crypto there are a few good long opps out there that should see some significant returns. But I dont think they are wide spread. Each cycle is less.
This past year I sat out crypto, outside of HYPE which luckily did almost a 3x from the original entry, and a few BTC scalps. The same can be said for 2022, where I largely sat out for a year. From above 60k to just under 20k.
There is a time and place for everything, and the time aspect needs a lot more respect and understanding.
I do my best to help people avoid the long, drawn out drawdowns, and try to get in the best trades possible on the long side. of course nobody is perfect, and we all make mistakes. But I do the best I can. And will continue to try to do that. Im looking forward to sharing a little more crypto content again.