@squawksquare Squak, the market as a whole is not doing well. TSLA is just in that trend now. Relax and be more positive. Your rants don’t make sense this week. Take your IDGAF pill.
@Banana3Stocks Banana you shouldn’t be worry about it. If any user don’t know how to check your bluemark to verify your account, they are on their own. You can’t fix stupid.
$SPY $QQQ
The FOMC 🧟♂️
F your puts…
F your calls…
J Pow got you by the ballzzz! 💥
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this Wednesday, September 20, 2023 to decide how much to puppet our economy chasing the curve endlessly like a Golden Retriever chasing it’s bushy tail 🐶
Paul Powell, I mean Jerome Volcker…darn it…, I mean Jerome Powell, there it is…I always mix those up ❤️, will be facing a higher than expected CPI, PPI, and continued resilience in the jobs market, and a barrel of oil above $90 bucks. Some would say those are the ingredients for stickier inflation and what should be a more hawkish FED and endless interest rate increases 🧟♂️
(I remind that Shelter and Used cars are large components of CPI, especially shelter and the ZORI (Zillow Observed Rent Index) is far more accurate “boots on the ground” data versus OER, shows continued disinflation still to come, but I digress…)
This would essentially mean if we have a structural issues with oil be it leadership and policy, or lack of infrastructure like more refineries, and foreign actors like Russia and Saudi Arabia changing production output to satisfy their own targets…then my friends I hate to tell you the dark truth but it won’t matter if the FED hikes to 8% FED Funds Rate it will be the equivalent of pouring “Robitussin on a broken leg🦵”
Nick Timairos of WSJ, known as “Nicki Leaks” has not leaked any change of status to this weeks Meeting and currently the probability of no rate hike this week sits above 90% and without any Niki Leaks this seems to be a lock. The question will ultimately be their Jaw Boning and “Hawkish Rhetoric” that may spook markets by then raising the percentage probability of the November meeting for a rate hike and the continued upward pressing of yields where the 10yr currently sits at 4.34% 💀
Markets are starting to find issues with yields and the dollar 💴 at this high level once again as both of those put pressure on long duration equities and multi nationals, both equaling large cap tech and tech in general. It puts pressure on the market multiple overall as well as the eventual recession fears as industrials and even cyclicals will eventually have to fall on their own swords ⚔️ as the bears 🐻 would say.
The market and the FED are going to have to come to grips with structurally high oil and not letting foreign actors who don’t have our best intentions to also control our monetary policy and interest rates. The market is going to have to come to grips with a structural labor problem that is trying to get to pre Covid levels still in the service economy while getting more factory workers on the line to make more widgets in a supply side inflation shock, just as….Artificial Intelligence circles the corner for corporate America whose looking for Cheap Incremental labor 🤖
The FEDs models are broken and maybe they realize that inflation has gone from 9% to 3% with high employment and a resilient economy because human beings WITHOUT the FED figure 💩 out eventually. The FED is only making matters worse in my opinion. So, a “Hawkish Pause” is on the docket and what does this mean?
It means, in my opinion, that the FED is done hiking for many reasons but the last thing they want at this particular juncture is for the market to think that 🎁. So the market may temporarily rejoice to the end of the entire FED rate hiking cycle to then un-rejoice at Hawkish Jaw Boning. So do we, as market participants do as they do or do as they say? 👄
Maybe…the market has priced in the “do as they say” hawkish jaw boning with the recent parabolic upward move in interest rates and Equity market internals sitting at 70% and 60% of Nasdaq stocks sitting below their 50 and 200 day moving averages respectively 🤷♂️. So, by the time we get to the event it’s my feeling that since we “Sold the Rummor”… just maybe.. we “Buy the News.” 😘
Thanks for reading ❤️