Onchain Decoded

Decoding onchain data for everyday investors 📊

Whale tracking 🌐 Exchange flows 🌐 Weekly reports 🌐

DMs open for new projects. 📩

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Last weekly five of October. 📊 Long-term holder supply, short-term cost basis, 7-day netflow, open interest read with funding, hash rate trend. Conviction, the marginal buyer, coin movement, leverage, cost floor. Five questions, no overlap. https://t.co/JaCV0SxTWB

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

ETF inflows do not mean institutions turned bullish. 🏦 Authorised participants run an arbitrage and are indifferent to direction, and part of the flow is a basis trade carrying no view at all. The mechanism behind the numbers: https://t.co/jhudxJCehz

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Most onchain indicators cannot lead price, because price is an input to their own calculation. 📉 One test sorts them: could this metric have moved if price had not? If no, it is arithmetic, not evidence. That removes about half the charts in circulation. https://t.co/GzKdhylteo

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Same metric, two platforms, different numbers. 📊 Not a bug. Every onchain metric depends on address labelling, and labelling is an estimate. Pick one source per metric and stay with it, because consistency beats accuracy here. https://t.co/zm2KYb2m7V

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Month-end onchain prints come with three artefacts. 👀 Custodial transfers that look like supply events. ETF flow numbers that get revised days later. Open interest dropping into expiry, which is settlement, not capitulation. https://t.co/xb8bchqP9j

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Long-term holder supply: coins that have not moved in 155 days or more. ⏳ Rising means patient money is absorbing. Falling means it is distributing. It measures behaviour directly instead of guessing it from wallet size. https://t.co/KmvCBzpAXd

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

A pool advertising 80k in liquidity has roughly 40k of SOL behind it. 🔴 That is what you are actually exiting into. LP locks expire. LP burns do not. Check which one you are looking at before you buy, not after. https://t.co/VVHksmwxBZ

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

5 Bitcoin metrics for the fourth week of October. 📈 Realized cap, coin days destroyed, supply in profit, funding, mempool. Picked so that each one can move without the others moving. Correlated metrics add confidence, not information. https://t.co/HWhv4TWYar

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Shrimp, crab, whale. 🐋 The cohort charts everyone shares have one problem: an ETF custodian holding coins for thousands of retail buyers shows up as a single whale accumulating. The chart says the opposite of what happened. https://t.co/wAEBdqmb8e

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Miners sort by fee RATE, not total fee. ⏳ Which is why consolidating a pile of small inputs costs you more than a single large spend for the exact same confirmation speed. How the mempool actually sets what you pay: https://t.co/LwmnAf0w4Y

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Exchange reserves measure the stock. Netflow measures the change. People use them interchangeably and read plumbing as panic. 📊 A netflow spike at one venue is usually a hot to cold wallet rotation, not selling. https://t.co/ppdq2j8pq6

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

One question separates a real move from a repriced one. 👀 Rising realized cap means new money actually arrived. Flat realized cap with a rising market cap means the same money got remarked higher. Price cannot tell them apart. https://t.co/HlBDA4iKOy

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Realized price is what the average bitcoin last actually moved at. 🟢 Spot above it, holders are collectively in profit. Spot below, they are underwater. The most useful level on the chart that almost nobody looks at. https://t.co/fNQbtekYDN

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Risk 20% per trade with a real edge and four losses leaves you at 41% of your bankroll. You now need +144% just to break even. 📉 Same edge at 3% leaves you at 88%. Sizing decides survival, not strategy. https://t.co/7cgtdFtK7F

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

5 Bitcoin metrics for mid-October, each with the level that would actually change the read. 📊 No price-derived ratios on the list: if price is the input, it cannot tell you anything new about price. https://t.co/SkdUJNv8UV

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Stock-to-flow, the 2021 double top, exchange wallet reshuffles. Honest lessons from onchain metrics that missed 🧐 https://t.co/h07SndqPq9

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

A 10-year Treasury near 5% raises the bar for holding an asset that pays nothing. How rates move BTC 🏦 https://t.co/SRCeCMdj7k

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Some ETF inflows have zero view on Bitcoin. The CME basis trade explains why flow data can mislead 🔁 https://t.co/fDlbjYdnX0

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

Two weeks into Q4: is demand rebuilding or fading? Realized cap and ETF flows answer that better than price 📊 https://t.co/BSADFqi3pr

[Onchain Decoded @OnchainDecoded]

7 onchain indicators that flagged past Bitcoin cycle tops, and where they sit now 📈 https://t.co/B4fzrIEUF9