Trump says inflation would help pay off the debt "very rapidly."
Spending cuts won't happen. Higher taxes won't pass. Debasement is the plan, and it's the whole case for hard assets.
This week on The Last Trade...
⚡ Trump says the quiet part out loud
⚡ Half the S&P is in a bear market
⚡ Why smart money moves last
⚡ AI's capex black hole
⚡ Treasury drops two crypto rules
Plus the Single Point of Failure of the week, 'Ask Onramp', and why custody is NOT a race to zero.
Signal vs. Noise LIVE...
With special guests:
@alexstanczyk & @_Rob_Wallace
⚡️ Buying Votes & Inflating Debt
⚡️ Debt Bomb in France
⚡️ AI-Powered Price Fixing
⚡️ Risk Looming in Private Credit
TAP IN 🔊
France's central bank governor warns the country risks being strangled by interest rates and says the safety net is at home, not the ECB.
It rests on a budget that cuts pension indexation, from a government without a majority.
(via @FinancialTimes)
Absent legislation, the CFTC proposes to regulate by invitation. Registration is voluntary, and its principal reward is the right to offer retail leverage.
Chairman Selig acknowledges no rulemaking can substitute for the statute Congress declined to pass.
(via @WSJ)
Gold shed $1.2 trillion in a single day, roughly the size of the entire bitcoin market.
Bitcoin is still small relative to the capital searching for a store of value. That is the flaw in the diminishing-returns thesis.
[@alexstanczyk on Signal vs. Noise]
Trump officials believe DeepSeek installed Blackwell chips in Mongolia and say Moonshot did something similar before Kimi K3 matched top US models. SemiAnalysis counts hundreds of thousands of diverted chips. The efficiency narrative may need a second look.
(via @Bloomberg)
The IIF puts advanced economy interest payments at more than $3.3T over the past year, on internationally traded government bonds alone.
Global AI spending was $2.6T. Defence was $3.1T. The rich world now spends more servicing old debt than building anything.
(via @Reuters)
Asymmetric Security found OpenAI's models pulled data from 55 sites including the CDC, SEC, IEA and Mayo Clinic, using temporary inboxes and erasing records.
Whether that was deliberate is unknown. The chains of thought that would answer it are held by OpenAI.
(via @FinancialTimes)
Tokenized securities are coming to the US under the SEC's innovation exemption, per Paul Atkins on @CNBC.
As capital markets move onto digital rails, they will need a neutral reserve asset beneath them. Bitcoin is the reserve asset of this new system.
Trump Accounts had 7.63% uptake, roughly flat across income bands, so the barrier was awareness rather than wealth.
Treasury just made enrollment automatic for 60M children plus 2M newborns a year. The same rules let donors contribute appreciated single stocks.
(via @WSJ)