bill jones

Living the dream...

[Jack @jackcoder0]

Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.

Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.

The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."

An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.

Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.

The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.

No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.

Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.

Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@Bobby27556108 @vivavelo @TerryMoran But do you?

[Terry Moran 🇺🇸 @TerryMoran]

https://t.co/BNsdwxjslY

[Dr Jose Cuauhtemoc Cervantes @temotizox]

El hombre que ven en la imagen se llama Josè "Joe" Ceballos. Nació en México, llegó a Kansas a los 4 años y es un convencido votante trumpista.
Vive en Coldwater, un pueblito de setecientos habitantes, entre graneros, pacas de heno, camionetas y banderitas americanas en las verjas.
Republicano hasta la médula, el pueblo y él también.
Y él nunca se ha movido de Coldwater. Ha hecho la primaria allí, la secundaria allí, el bachillerato allí. Ha trabajado para la compañía eléctrica del pueblo durante toda su vida. Se casó allí, crió a sus hijos allí, cría ganado allí.
Lo conocen todos: es "Joe". Al que hablas cuando se rompe el sistema de alcantarillado. Aquel que en diciembre monta las luces de Navidad en la plaza. Aquel que el día de los Veteranos y del Memorial Day levanta las banderas.
Y también por eso lo eligieron alcalde dos veces. La última vez, en noviembre de 2025. Porque en Coldwater Joe es uno de ellos. De hecho: Joe es uno de ellos.
Joe en las elecciones de 2024 votó por Trump. Convencido al 100. Y lo mismo había hecho en 2016 y en 2020.
Pero hay un pequeño detalle: Joe no podía votar. Porque después de 51 años en Kansas, después de haber sido alcalde de una ciudad estadounidense, técnicamente seguía siendo mexicano.
De hecho, tenía la tarjeta verde, no la ciudadanía.
Se había registrado a los 18 años durante una excursión escolar al tribunal del condado. El empleado había preguntado "¿alguien quiere inscribirse?" y Joe había levantado la mano junto con sus compañeros.
Joe declaró en el tribunal que no sabía que para votar en América era necesario ser ciudadanos estadounidenses: "Pensaba que 'residente permanente' significaba que estaba en regla".
Durante casi cuarenta años, en las urnas de Coldwater, Joe fue a votar con la más absoluta convicción de ser como todos los demás.
Y en cambio no. El día después de su reelección, el fiscal general de Kansas, Kris Kobach, republicano, trumpista, halcón de la inmigración, lo acusa de fraude electoral.
Joe acepta un acuerdo: libertad vigilada, dos mil dólares de multa. Y cuando sale del tribunal declara a los periódicos: "Quizás ahora también pueda pedir la ciudadanía".
Era el 13 de abril.
Miércoles 13 de mayo, exactamente un mes después, el ICE, la policía migratoria que tanto le gustaba a Joe, le envía una bonita cartita: "Señor Ceballos, preséntese en Wichita".
Joe va. En coche, dos horas de pradera, a través de los campos de trigo del profundo Kansas. Se presenta, entrega el móvil y acaba en la celda. Ahora corre el riesgo de ser deportado a México, donde la última vez que estuvo llevaba todavía el chupete.
La portavoz del Departamento de Seguridad Nacional, Lauren Bis, comentó: "Nuestras elecciones pertenecen a los ciudadanos estadounidenses, no a los extranjeros".
Y mientras Joe era trasladado a la cárcel del ICE, frente a las oficinas federales se reunieron decenas de sus conciudadanos. Todos allí pidiendo la liberación de Joe. Todos allí, en su gran mayoría, votantes de Trump.
Aquellos que habían votado a favor de "expulsar a los inmigrantes ilegales".
Y ahora descubren lo que nosotros repetimos desde hace una vida: que la máquina del odio no mira cuánto tiempo llevas allí, no mira a quién has votado, no mira si eres el alcalde o el jardinero. Muele. Y cuando se acaba la carne de los demás, empieza con la tuya.
Joe ha votado a Trump tres veces.
Joe corre el riesgo de ser deportado por Trump.
Y mientras lo cargan en la furgoneta, en algún lugar de Kansas, hay un seguidor suyo con la gorra MAGA en la cabeza que se rasca la nuca y se pregunta, quizás por primera vez en la vida, si acaso no lo habían tomado un poco demasiado en serio, esos.
Bienvenidos a la realidad...

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@evilmind381 @Albertteac Got it. But is there hatred and discrimination between the two? Predjudices based on things that happened long ago? If so it may not be racism exactly but it’s in the same family.

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@evilmind381 @Albertteac How multiracial is Serbia? Also, don’t y’all have beef with Croatians?

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@ArbanasJoseph @NS_Neelotpal @EricTrump @RapidResponse47 @SenWarren Pure projection

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@eubank_lyn79311 @EricTrump @SenWarren I guess you didn’t notice there are 6 sources researched to make that claim. Believing Trump is like believing in Bernie Madoff..

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@mattr262 @NS_Neelotpal @atrupar What it does change is their motivation to go to the polls. They may not vote Democrat, but they just won’t vote at all.

[𝒆𝒏𝒙𝒄𝒉 @EN0CX]

I can’t watch this alone. This can only happen in America. 😭💔

[Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney]

NEW: We've spent 10 months tracking the outcomes in tens of thousands of lawsuits brought by ICE detainees amid an unprecedented detention push.

It's not a cose call: judges have ruled more than 10,000 times against ICE, a 9-1 ratio.

See the database:

https://t.co/oaO2z23XO3

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am the Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization. I am visiting China this week in a personal capacity as a supportive son.

Normal people visit their mothers in a personal capacity. Normal people attend funerals in a personal capacity. I do it beside sixteen CEOs, five billionaires worth $870 billion, and a 500-aircraft Boeing order being finalized with Beijing during the trip. Goldman Sachs. Citigroup. Mastercard. Visa. Tim Cook. Larry Fink. Stephen Schwarzman.

In a personal capacity.

I am also the Chief Strategy Officer of American Bitcoin. My qualifications for this role include mowing lawns on my father's golf courses, laying tile at his properties, and serving as a boardroom judge on The Apprentice from 2010 to 2015. I have no documented experience in cryptocurrency, blockchain, or Bitcoin mining. My stake in American Bitcoin alone was worth $548 million by September 2025 — eight months into my father's second term.

We purchased 16,000 Bitmain mining rigs for $314 million. Bitmain is Chinese. Bitmain is headquartered in Beijing. Beijing is where I am visiting in a personal capacity. In March we bought 11,298 more. The terms were "unusual" — hundreds of millions in equipment for "future considerations." I'm not sure what "future considerations" means in this context, especially when your father sets the tariff rate on your supplier's home country. I can tell you it is not a "conflict of interest." It is a "supply chain relationship."

On May 12, the day I boarded this plane, my father announced a trade agreement with China. Tariffs on Chinese goods dropped from 145 percent to 30 percent. That is a 115-point reduction on the country that manufactures my equipment, announced the same day I flew there. I did not know. I did not ask. I did not need to ask.

My family owns 60 percent of World Liberty Financial. We receive 75 percent of every token sold. The New Yorker's running total is $4.2 billion. Politico documented $12.9 billion in trading volume. Let me tell you about our team.

My brother Barron is our "DeFi visionary." He was eighteen years old. His prior experience is being tall.

My brother Don is "Web3 Ambassador." His prior experience is selling condos and shooting elephants.

I handle "strategic planning." My prior experience is tile.

My brother-in-law Jared received $2 billion from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund six months after leaving the White House. The fund's own advisory panel flagged his "lack of private equity experience" and called the due diligence results "unsatisfactory." They gave him the money anyway.

My sister Ivanka received Chinese government approval for 16 trademarks during my father's first term. The categories included handbags, sunglasses, perfume, baby blankets, and voting machines. Voting machines. From China. While her father was president. That is not "corruption." That is "brand diversification."

My father spent four years on Hunter Biden. Four years. The charge: Hunter sat on the board of Burisma for $83,000 a month with no energy experience. My father called it the greatest corruption in American political history. He withheld $391 million in military aid to Ukraine to pressure an investigation. He was impeached for it. He did it again. A special counsel was appointed. Total cost to taxpayers: millions. Total Hunter earnings: $11 million over five years.

Let me do the math my father never did.

Hunter Biden made $6,027 per day. My family makes $8.75 million per day. That is 1,451 times Hunter's rate. We earn his entire five-year scandal every thirty hours.

Hunter had no energy experience. I have no crypto experience. Hunter sat on one board. I run the operation. Hunter met one banker for a coffee. I sit on Air Force One beside $870 billion negotiating with the country that manufactures my equipment.

But here is the part that makes me proud.

We launched a cryptocurrency in my father's name. It peaked at $73. It trades today at $2.43. Retail investors lost 95 percent of their money. We collected $400 million in transaction fees regardless of price. We hosted a dinner — the top 220 holders gained entry by holding enough of my father's coin. The top 29 received a champagne toast with the President of the United States. Price of admission: approximately $3.28 million in tokens. A public school teacher earns $3.28 million in 47 years. We call that "community engagement." Not "selling access." Access is what Hunter Biden sold for a cup of coffee.

Three days before I boarded this plane to Beijing, our team moved $12 million in memecoin assets to custody platforms. Routine. Unrelated. Everything is unrelated to everything.

In a personal capacity.

On January 24, 2025 — four days after the inauguration — my father fired seventeen inspectors general in a single night. Without explanation. Without notice to Congress. Seventeen. The people whose job is to look. He removed them all at once and no one replaced them. There is no inspector general for a son's "personal capacity." There is no disclosure form for love. There is no ethics office for a champagne toast priced at $3.28 million. He didn't bend the guardrails. He fired the people who hold them.

He built that. I fly in on it. $4.2 billion at cruising altitude. Every thirty hours, another Hunter Biden.

Hunter Biden got a special counsel for a cup of coffee and a board seat that paid less per month than one champagne toast with my father costs per million.

I am the Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization. I am the Chief Strategy Officer of American Bitcoin. I am the Web3 strategic planner at World Liberty Financial. I am visiting the country that manufactures my mining rigs, approved my sister's trademarks, and funds my brother-in-law's private equity firm, on a plane beside $870 billion and a president who spent four years calling $11 million treason.

In a personal capacity. As a supportive son.

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@Andy80218602 @richmond1724 @WhoKnows_85 @Sean_Zittel Turki’s talking about Benavidez/Usyk

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@Jtphotog1 @davidaxelrod @realDonaldTrump It’s amazing how little self reflection goes into a post like this

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@f4z6nxjqvx @ackocher Trump has already fired a ton of these judges. That’s why there was a lawsuit…. Or you can keep thinking that Trump is some magical persecuted underdog

[ProPublica @propublica]

Two of the three major credit bureaus have sharply reduced the share of complaints they resolved in customers’ favor.

In 2024, Experian’s relief rate was 20%. Last year, that figure fell to less than 1%.
https://t.co/wPhNgubJHq

[Lydia Kauppi @lydiakauppi]

The DOGE goons are getting deposed for a lawsuit on behalf of the American History Association and others and holy shit this hurts to watch

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@grok So how much have recent tax cuts (bush/trump) added to the national debt?

[bill jones @oraclebill]

@grok do tax cuts pay for themselves?! Have they ever in us history?

[bill jones @oraclebill]

https://t.co/nwhYPGJ36H