TO

Founder @AvtaResearch

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

Our thoughts on the Jensen and $NVDA situation; where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

“Fear and uncertainty being in the market is one thing, but now with questions of trust from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, confidence is now in question. Fear, uncertainty, and no confidence in the market is a recipe for disaster.”

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

$NVDA

OH MY GODNESS

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

Do you guys think Jensen is hedging his job?

[TO @OresickT]

@AvtaResearch 😂😂😂😂

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

$NVDA

The NYT reported today that it was not just an alleged Chinese honeypot, but also an Nvidia executive.

Their earnings call is going to be one for the ages...

#Stocks #Trading

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

The #1 reason for what could go wrong in our $CORZ short was the short squeeze. This was the main reason for closing the position early in profit instead of sitting in a crowded position waiting for our target.

$CORZ up +11%
$CRWV up +23%

CoreWeave rose from $40.50 to $60 in four sessions. Their bonds eased to >16%, but the CDS are still 1,135bps as of the last print.

And we will say again;

DEMAND BEAT, BUT CREDIT HASN'T MOVED!!!!!!!!!

*We currently do not hold a position long or short in CoreWeave or CoreScientific*

#Trading #StockMarket

[TO @OresickT]

@AvtaResearch @MasonWaltemyer been killing it recently

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

$CRWV
We have no doubt been bears here and
a Q3 beat and raise is hard to argue with from the standpoint that most look at. Revenue $3.661 billion, +168%, vs $3.54 billion consensus. Backlog $132.5 billion, up from $104.2 billion. Full-year raised to $13.0–13.3 billion. It did not disappoint on demand. But that really isn’t why we have been digging into them, we never believed demand was the issue, as for most neoclouds, it is not the issue.

Our thesis is intact on funding, and funding is the real story.

Operating cash flow $1.975 billion vs $9.441 billion in equipment spend. Interest $846M, which is 4x operating income. Debt $46.9 billion plus $19.3 billion leases, ~$66B billion total. No new parent unsecured debt through 2027 at current yields (🤮), with $9 billion customer prepayments coming in the next 3 months (⁉️), interesting.

*We do not currently hold a position long or short in CoreWeave*

Not financial advice
#Trading #StockMarket

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

$CRWV

WE TOLD YOU THE LINE TO WATCH IS FCF

THEY BURNED $7.5 BILLION THIS QUARTER

WATCH OUT

[TO @OresickT]

@AvtaResearch @AnthropicAI 😏

[AvtaResearch @AvtaResearch]

https://t.co/H1BKvjX2Jk

[TO @OresickT]

$NVDA

Jensen will have a presser eventually, but the best (or worst) part about this situation is that the DAY AFTER NVIDIA EARNINGS @JensenHuang will testify in a joint closed door congressional briefing.

A horrible situation for the bedrock of the AI trade to be faced with…

[TO @OresickT]

NQ doesn’t look great here

Today bounced right of previous support at $28,950 and now down around -0.72%

A true breakdown below that yearly anchored vwap would be quite the spectacle

[TO @OresickT]

Naturally on a Friday night after a market downturn you’d want to read the postmortem I wrote about right?

[TO @OresickT]

@pgh_scanner Yup that’s that Burger King

[TO @OresickT]

@AvtaResearch @CoreWeave

[TO @OresickT]

@AvtaResearch

[TO @OresickT]

Wasn’t wrong, just a year early…