Overnight FPL

FPL insights, for everyone. Overnight moves, DefCon analytics, a model with its own team. Want something dug into? Ask.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

@Nii_Armah45 Definitely a big threat across all areas, but for defcon he’s not the guy people think he was!

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Everyone is loading up on DEFCON defenders this season.

Last year only 15 of 93 regular defenders took the two defensive points in half their games. These are the 15.

Look who is not on it. Van Dijk, Gabriel, Saliba and Gvardiol all missed. Their value was clean sheets, not defensive actions.

Who are you choosing?

#FPL

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

@shazocox @FPLMattW Check out the top defcon defenders in my latest post!

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

@FPLGOAT7 @StatzFPL Everton is the stronger value I’d say. Tarkowski, Keane and Garner all got the two defensive points in more than half their starts last season. Villa is the opposite though, best there was about a third, and Konsa and Cash were nowhere near.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Every term we use lives in this series, explained once, properly. Reply with the acronym that annoys you most and it goes in the next card.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Next up in the Speak FPL series, the scoring engine!

The three letters behind every projection we publish. xG and xA measure the chances, xP turns them into expected points under this season's rules.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Why xP matters: The number the squad is somewhat picked on. This is more of a forecast, than a promise of points.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Why xA matters: Separates creators having a quiet run from creators who have actually stopped creating.

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Yeah fair point, and defcon could drop. Overall points might not though. Rice did 10.7 actions a start to Anderson’s 13.8, so less defending, and still scored more, 5.2 a start against 4.8, because Arsenal gave him 18 clean sheets and 23 bonus. Set piece fc though.. Depends whether the clean sheets actually land for him and how Maresca gets them playing. Are you avoiding him?

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Yeah I’d agree with you. Thought I’d run some numbers and it is just smaller than I thought. Promoted clubs’ defenders in the PL last season averaged 8.05 actions a start against 7.51 for established ones, so about 7%. That takes O’Shea from 8.7 to 9.3 and Thomas from 8.6 to 9.2, so it does not actually tip those over. Hughes at 11.8 clears it though! And with their value i think they’re great pics

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

The quality half checks out and then some. O’Reilly’s 0.21 xG per 90 was the highest of any defender in the league last season, four and a half times the defender median. On the rotation worry, he made 28 sixty minute starts against Gvardiol’s 14 and Ait Nouri’s 10. Injuries are part of that, but he was the one being trusted. He’s only going to get better?

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Looking at last season too.. 114 points from 21 sixty minute starts, against 214 from 36 the year before. That might be what the 13.2% is pricing rather than people overlooking him? In fairness his goal threat held up, 0.49 xG per 90 against 0.47, it was the assists that went, 10 down to 2. My gut does say last year was a one off.. what do you reckon?

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Starting the Speak FPL mini series.

FPL is played by all, so let’s be grounded in all the acronyms and definitions.

Starting with the absolute basics I’m sure everyone knows! #FPL #FPLCommunity

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

Got the same here, 15 hits at 10.7 per start. What the hit rate hides is that 12 is the line and he averages under it, so the 43% is coming from his busy games rather than his baseline. The reliable mids all clear 12 on an ordinary day: Anderson 13.8 and 70%, Garner 12.1 and 53%. Matteus should be even better under de zerbi, but can we trust spurs?

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

@FplMode 41% is good - 13 of his 31 starts. The bit that concerns me is that he averages 8.8 defensive actions a start against the 10 he needs, so he is under the line on a normal day and gets there on his good days. Senesi averages 11.3 and clears it 70% of the time. What your thinking?

[Overnight FPL @OvernightFPL]

@FPL_Droptop Two. Spurs kept a clean sheet in 29% of games last season, but defences are changing a lot over summer, so pull that toward the league average and you get about 34%. Not sure I can ever trust spurs though, at least for the start? What you thinking?